GDP in Malaysia
Malaysia - GDP
Economic growth eases on a weakening external sector
Growth in the Malaysian economy eased slightly to 4.4% in the third quarter over the same period a year ago, which is fractionally down from the 4.5% year-on-year expansion in the second quarter and marks a two-year low. The result was also below market expectations of 4.6% growth. In quarter-on-quarter terms, the economy accelerated significantly and grew 1.6% (Q2: +0.3% quarter-on-quarter).
Annual growth in the economy came on the back of strengthening domestic demand, with household consumption, government expenditure and fixed investment growing at a quicker rate than in the previous quarter. Private consumption was the star performer, expanding 9.0% year-on-year (Q2: +8.0% yoy) and underpinned by the zero-rating of the goods and services tax on 1 June ahead of the reinstatement of a less broad-based sales and services tax on 1 September. Annual growth in retail sales came in at a multi-year high in August, while long holidays also positively influenced the strong growth in private consumption. Furthermore, fixed investment increased 3.2% in the third quarter over the same period a year ago (Q2: +2.2% yoy), reflecting private sector investment, particularly in machinery and equipment. Government expenditure, meanwhile, expanded significantly in the third quarter (Q3: +5.2% yoy; Q2: +2.2% yoy).
On the external front, merchandise exports accelerated at a double-digit pace in the quarter in USD value terms on the back of resilient foreign demand for electrical and electronic products, crude petroleum, and refined petroleum. However, the pace of expansion in exports slowed markedly compared to the previous quarter (Q3: +11.1% yoy; Q2: +18.4% yoy), chiefly owing to strong contractions in the exports of palm oil and palm oil-based products and liquefied natural gas. Merchandise import growth also moderated strongly in USD value terms compared to the prior period, easing from 18.7% yoy in the second quarter to 11.3% yoy in the third quarter. This reflected a drop in intermediate goods imports amid robust growth in consumption goods and capital goods. While the merchandise trade balance posted a surplus, the external sector including trade in services dragged on headline growth.
Looking ahead, the pace of economic expansion is expected to moderate next year and thereafter. This partly reflects global trade tensions clouding the external sector’s outlook. On the other hand, private consumption should be buttressed by a smaller tax burden due to the zero-rating of the goods and services tax in favor of a sales and services tax.
Malaysia GDP Forecast
Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to grow 4.7% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s projection. For 2020, the panel sees economic growth of 4.4%.
Malaysia - GDP Data
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||4.7||6.0||5.1||4.2||5.9|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Malaysia GDP Chart
Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia and Met the why particular calculations.
|Bond Yield||4.07||0.15 %||Jan 18|
|Exchange Rate||4.11||0.0 %||Jan 21|
|Stock Market||1,692||-0.29 %||Jan 18|
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January 11, 2019
Industrial production growth eased to 2.5% in November over the same month a year earlier from a revised 4.3% in October; November’s result was, however, above market expectations of a bigger moderation.
January 4, 2019
Exports grew 1.1% in November over the same month a year earlier in USD terms.
January 2, 2019
The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), produced by Nikkei and IHS Markit, fell from 48.2 in November to 46.8 in December, the lowest reading since the survey began in July 2012. The ongoing deterioration in operating conditions in December came on the heels of weakening output levels and demand, both domestic and overseas.
December 19, 2018
In November consumer prices rose 0.25% over the previous month, up from October’s 0.17% increase.
December 12, 2018
Growth in industrial production accelerated rapidly to 4.2% in October over a year ago, up from 2.3% in September.