GDP in Lithuania
Lithuania - GDP
Growth picks up in Q4 2018
According to detailed national accounts data released by the Statistical Institute on 1 March, the Lithuanian economy gained momentum at the end of 2018. GDP expanded 3.7% annually in Q4, up from 2.6% in Q3 but below the preliminary estimate that projected Q4 growth at 3.9%. That said, the fourth-quarter acceleration was driven by a significant contribution from inventories, while fundamentals softened somewhat from the previous quarter.
Growth dynamics in the domestic economy were more lackluster in the final quarter. Private consumption grew 3.7% year-on-year in Q4, easing slightly from the previous quarter’s 4.2% increase, amid a marginal uptick in unemployment and stronger inflationary pressures. In a similar fashion, government spending growth moderated from 1.4% in Q3 to 0.5% in Q4. Furthermore, fixed investment growth decelerated to a year-and-a-half low in the fourth quarter (Q4: +3.6% year-on-year; Q3: +7.0% year-on-year). However, inventories surged in Q4, propping up strong investment activity growth and driving the overall economic expansion in the final quarter.
On the external front, metrics were similarly downbeat. Exports growth slowed to a two-year low in the fourth quarter amid feebler external demand (Q4: +5.8% yoy; Q3: +3.1% yoy). In contrast, imports accelerated at the end of 2018 (Q4: +4.3% yoy; Q3: +3.6% yoy) amid still-strong consumer demand, highlighting a deterioration with the external sector.
On a quarter-on-quarter basis, growth surged to 1.3% in seasonally-adjusted terms in the fourth quarter (previously reported: +1.5% quarter-on-quarter). The result marked the fastest rise in two years and was a significant improvement from the previous quarter’s 0.4% increase. Meanwhile, full year growth came in at 3.4% (previously reported: 3.5% yoy), moderating from the 4.1% expansion logged in 2017.
In 2019, the Central Bank expects GDP to grow 2.8%. Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists see the economy growing 2.9% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2020, our panel projects GDP to expand 2.6%.
Lithuania - GDP Data
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||3.5||3.5||2.0||2.3||3.9|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Lithuania GDP Chart
Source: Statistics Lithuania and Met the why particular calculations.
|Bond Yield||1.11||0.0 %||Mar 20|
|Stock Market||658||0.45 %||Mar 20|
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March 22, 2019
Industrial output rose 3.8% year-on-year in February, down from the 5.3% rise in January.
March 13, 2019
Consumer prices increased 0.1% from the previous month in February, down slightly from the 0.1% month-on-month increase in January.
March 1, 2019
According to detailed national accounts data released by the Statistical Institute on 1 March, the Lithuanian economy gained momentum at the end of 2018.
February 21, 2019
Industrial output rose 5.3% year-on-year in January, up from the 1.0% rise in December, largely reflecting healthy output growth in the manufacturing sector.
February 15, 2019
Consumer prices increased 0.2% from the previous month in January, compared to a 0.6% month-on-month drop in December.