Trade Balance in Korea
Korea - Trade Balance
Exports and imports continue to contract in March
Merchandise exports fell 8.2% in March—a less pronounced drop than February’s revised 11.4% fall (previously reported: -11.1% year-on-year)—to total USD 47.1 billion. Merchandise imports decreased 6.7% in March—a slight recovery from February’s sharp 12.6% fall—and totaled USD 41.9 billion. March’s outturn comes amid a backdrop of ebbing global growth, weaker Chinese import demand, a rise in trade protectionism and lower semiconductor prices. Moreover, less working days compared to March 2018 also contributed to the decline in foreign trade.
The merchandise trade surplus narrowed to USD 5.2 billion from USD 6.4 billion in the same month a year earlier (February: USD 3.0 billion surplus). The 12-month moving sum of the trade balance also narrowed to a USD 66.3 billion surplus in March from the USD 67.5 billion surplus posted in February.
Commenting on March’s print was research analyst Young Sun Kwon at Nomura:
“we see downside risks to our 2019 current account surplus forecast of USD80bn (4.5% of GDP). Also, disappointing February activity and March export data suggest there is a risk of the Bank of Korea (BOK) delivering a 25bp rate cut to 1.50% earlier than in our base case of Q4 2019.”
In 2019, Met the why particular panelists expect merchandise exports and imports to expand 4.4% and 2.3% respectively, bringing the trade surplus to USD 83.9 billion. In 2020, exports and imports are expected to increase 3.7% and 4.6% respectively, resulting in a trade surplus of USD 81.9 billion.
Korea - Trade Balance Data
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||44.0||47.2||90.3||89.2||95.2|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Korea Trade Balance Chart
Source: Korea Customs Service and Met the why particular calculations.
|Bond Yield||2.05||1.55 %||Jan 30|
|Exchange Rate||1,116||0.21 %||Jan 30|
|Stock Market||2,206||-0.11 %||Jan 30|
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April 18, 2019
At its 18 April monetary policy meeting, the Bank of Korea held the base rate steady at 1.75%, as had been expected by most market analysts, where it has been since November last year. April’s decision reflected weak inflation in recent months and lower Bank of Korea inflation forecasts.
April 2, 2019
Consumer prices fell 0.2% in March compared to the previous month, contrasting the 0.4% increase in February and confounding analysts’ expectations of a rise.
April 1, 2019
The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), produced by Nikkei and reported by IHS Markit, perked up to 48.8 in March, from 47.2 in February.
April 1, 2019
Merchandise exports fell 8.2% in March—a less pronounced drop than February’s revised 11.4% fall (previously reported: -11.1% year-on-year)—to total USD 47.1 billion.
March 29, 2019
Industrial production in the mining, manufacturing, and gas and electricity sectors dipped 2.7% in February compared to the same month a year earlier, a sharper fall than the downwardly revised 0.2% decline registered in January (previously reported: +0.1% year-on-year).