GDP in Korea
Korea - GDP
Comprehensive data shows that the economy lost growth momentum in Q3
According to comprehensive data released by the Bank of Korea on 4 December, GDP increased 2.0% in the third quarter from the same quarter last year. This matched the preliminary reading released in October but was still significantly down from the 2.8% expansion in the second quarter. In quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted terms, there was a 0.6% increase in GDP in Q3, which matched both the preliminary reading and Q2’s growth rate.
Annual private consumption growth in Q3 was put at 2.5%, down from both the preliminary reading of 2.6% and the previous quarter’s increase of 2.8%. This was likely in part due to falling consumer confidence. Government consumption rose a revised 4.6% in the third quarter (previously reported: +4.7% year-on-year, Q2: +4.8% yoy). Meanwhile, fixed investment fell a revised 6.6% in Q3, below both the preliminary reading of minus 6.5% and Q2’s decrease of 1.3%. The poor investment performance in Q3 was largely due to a slump in spending on construction and business investment.
Exports of goods and services increased 3.1% in Q3, which matched the preliminary reading but came in below the 4.8% rise in Q2. Imports fell a revised 1.8% in Q3, down from the 1.2% fall previously reported and the 2.0% increase in Q2. Overall, the external sector contributed a revised 2.6 percentage-points to economic growth in Q3, up from the previously reported 2.3 percentage-point contribution and the 1.5 percentage-point contribution in Q2.
Looking ahead, the economy is forecast to grow at a broadly steady rate. Higher government spending is on the cards as outlined by the Moon administration’s budget for 2019, which sets out the largest government spending increase in a decade. Moreover, monetary policy will remain accommodative by historical standards. However, elevated household debt, trade protectionism and an economic slowdown in China all weigh on the outlook.
Korea GDP Forecast
The Central Bank expects the economy will grow 2.7% in 2019. The analysts Met the why particular surveyed this month expect an expansion of 2.6% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2020, our panel again sees an expansion of 2.6%.
Korea - GDP Data
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||2.9||3.3||2.8||2.9||3.1|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Korea GDP Chart
Source: Bank of Korea and Met the why particular calculations.
|Bond Yield||2.03||1.55 %||Jan 21|
|Exchange Rate||1,128||0.21 %||Jan 21|
|Stock Market||2,125||-0.11 %||Jan 21|
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January 2, 2019
The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), produced by Nikkei and reported by IHS Markit, rose to 49.8 in December from 48.6 in November.
January 2, 2019
Merchandise exports fell 1.2% year-on-year in December—contrasting November’s revised 4.1% increase (previously reported: +4.5% year-on-year)—to total USD 48.5 billion.
December 31, 2018
Consumer prices decreased 0.3% month-on-month in December, a less-pronounced drop than in November, when prices fell 0.7%.
December 28, 2018
Industrial production in the mining, manufacturing, and gas and electricity sectors rose 0.1% in November compared to the same month a year earlier, down from the revised 11.9% jump in October (previously reported: +11.7% year-on-year).
December 28, 2018
For January, the Bank of Korea’s forward-looking business confidence indicator (BSI) for manufacturers was stable at December’s 71 points, leaving it below the crucial 110-point threshold separating pessimism from optimism.