Exports in Korea
Korea - Exports (percent change)
Export contraction worsens in May
Merchandise exports fell 9.4% over the same month a year earlier in May to total USD 45.9 billion, worsening from the 2.0% contraction in April. Merchandise imports, meanwhile, dropped 1.9% in May, contrasting the 2.6% expansion in April and totaling USD 43.6 billion. External demand for South Korean goods has been particularly dragged on by a slowing Chinese economy, weaker global trade amid the persistent U.S.-China trade rift, and weakness in the automobile and semiconductor industries.
The merchandise trade surplus narrowed in April to USD 2.3 billion in May from the USD 6.4 billion surplus in the same month year prior (April: USD 4.0 billion surplus). The 12-month moving sum of the trade balance also narrowed to a USD 60.1 billion surplus in May from the USD 64.1 billion surplus in April.
Turning to the export outlook and what it means for GDP prospects, analysts at Nomura commented:
“We believe the escalation of the U.S.-China trade dispute will likely weigh on export growth further, as our global economics team assigns a relatively high probability (65%) to the US implementing the next round of tariffs (25% on around USD300bn). We estimate the additional tariffs – and increase to 25% from 11% on USD200bn of Chinese exports to the US – will trim Korea’s GDP growth by ~0.1pp in the short term. If additional tariffs of 25% are imposed on the remaining USD300bn of Chinese exports to the U.S., this could shave an additional ~0.3pp from GDP growth. Therefore, we estimate the cumulative impact of US tariffs on Korea’s 2019 GDP at ~0.4pp.”
In 2019, Met the why particular panelists expect merchandise exports to expand 2.4% and imports to contract 1.3%, bringing the trade surplus to USD 91.3 billion. In 2020, exports and imports are expected to increase 3.5% and 2.9% respectively, resulting in a trade surplus of USD 97.6 billion.
Korea - Exports (%) Data
|Exports (annual variation in %)||2.1||2.3||-8.0||-5.9||15.8|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
|Bond Yield||1.59||1.55 %||Jun 14|
|Exchange Rate||1,185||0.21 %||Jun 14|
|Stock Market||2,095||-0.11 %||Jun 14|
Get a sample report showing our regional, country and commodities data and analysis.
Request a Trial
Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.
June 4, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.2% in month-on-month terms in May, down from the 0.4% increase recorded in April.
June 3, 2019
The Nikkei and IHS Markit manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 48.4 in May from 50.2 in April, dashing hopes of a revival in the manufacturing sector—April’s 50.2 reading had marked the first time in four months that the PMI had landed above the 50-point threshold that separates contraction from expansion in the manufacturing sector.
June 3, 2019
According to a second GDP release, the economy grew 1.7% in the first quarter compared to the same quarter a year earlier, down from the 1.8% previously reported and the 2.9% growth logged in the fourth quarter of last year.
June 1, 2019
Merchandise exports fell 9.4% over the same month a year earlier in May to total USD 45.9 billion, worsening from the 2.0% contraction in April.
May 31, 2019
Industrial production in the mining, manufacturing, and gas and electricity sectors fell 0.1% in annual terms in April, following the 2.3% decrease logged in March.