Imports G&S in Japan
Japan - Imports Goods and Services
GDP contracts at a sharper pace than initially reported in Q3 on weak capital expenditure
Following a barrage of natural disasters to hit the country this year, the Japanese economy contracted at the sharpest pace in over four years in the third quarter. According to revised data released by the Cabinet Office on 11 December, GDP declined 2.5% over the previous quarter in seasonally-adjusted annualized terms (SAAR), a steeper decline than the 1.2% drop initially estimated (Q2: +2.8% quarter-on-quarter SAAR). In annual terms, GDP was flat in Q3, decelerating from Q2’s 1.4% growth.
A much sharper contraction of 11.6% in private non-residential investment (previously reported: -0.9% qoq SAAR) led gross fixed capital formation to drop 8.4% (previously reported: -1.9% qoq SAAR), which represented the weakest performance in six years. Growth in private consumption and public spending, as well as the contribution from the external sector, were left broadly unchanged compared to the first estimate.
Although the contraction is expected to be only temporary, analysts at Nomura note that:
“Given that the global economy is in the midst of an ongoing slowdown, we think the slowdown in Japan's real exports, and in turn the country's economy as a whole, is likely to continue.”
The median GDP forecast among BoJ members is 0.8% for both FY 2019 and FY 2020. Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP expanding 1.1% in calendar year 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s projection. In 2020, the panel projects the economy to grow 0.6%.
Japan - Imports G&S Data
|Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)||3.2||8.2||0.7||-1.6||3.5|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
|Bond Yield||0.04||-4.41 %||Dec 14|
|Exchange Rate||113.4||-0.35 %||Dec 14|
|Stock Market||21,375||0.11 %||Dec 14|
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December 14, 2018
According to the Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan business survey, sentiment among large manufacturers was steady at 19 in the fourth quarter of 2019, contrasting market expectations of a fall to 15.
December 14, 2018
The Nikkei flash manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose from November’s over-one-year low of 52.2 to 52.4 in December.
December 12, 2018
In October, core machinery orders, a leading indicator for capital spending over a three- to six-month period, rebounded following September’s sharp contraction, which had represented the steepest fall since records began in 1987.
December 11, 2018
Following a barrage of natural disasters to hit the country this year, the Japanese economy contracted at the sharpest pace in over four years in the third quarter.
Japan: Industrial production sharply rebounds in October, recovering from natural disaster disruptions
November 30, 2018
Industrial production shot up 2.9% on a month-on-month and seasonally-adjusted basis in October, contrasting September’s revised 0.4% decline (previously reported: -1.1% month-on-month)—which came on the back of a wave of natural disasters that hit the country in the month.