GDP in Japan
Japan - GDP
GDP contracts at a sharper pace than initially reported in Q3 on weak capital expenditure
Following a barrage of natural disasters to hit the country this year, the Japanese economy contracted at the sharpest pace in over four years in the third quarter. According to revised data released by the Cabinet Office on 11 December, GDP declined 2.5% over the previous quarter in seasonally-adjusted annualized terms (SAAR), a steeper decline than the 1.2% drop initially estimated (Q2: +2.8% quarter-on-quarter SAAR). In annual terms, GDP was flat in Q3, decelerating from Q2’s 1.4% growth.
A much sharper contraction of 11.6% in private non-residential investment (previously reported: -0.9% qoq SAAR) led gross fixed capital formation to drop 8.4% (previously reported: -1.9% qoq SAAR), which represented the weakest performance in six years. Growth in private consumption and public spending, as well as the contribution from the external sector, were left broadly unchanged compared to the first estimate.
Although the contraction is expected to be only temporary, analysts at Nomura note that:
“Given that the global economy is in the midst of an ongoing slowdown, we think the slowdown in Japan's real exports, and in turn the country's economy as a whole, is likely to continue.”
The median GDP forecast among BoJ members is 0.8% for both FY 2019 and FY 2020. Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP expanding 1.1% in calendar year 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s projection. In 2020, the panel projects the economy to grow 0.6%.
Japan - GDP Data
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||2.0||0.4||1.4||1.0||1.7|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Japan GDP Chart
Source: Cabinet Office and Met the why particular calculations.
|Bond Yield||0.01||-4.41 %||Jan 21|
|Exchange Rate||119.7||-0.35 %||Jan 21|
|Stock Market||20,719||0.11 %||Jan 21|
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January 23, 2019
Nominal yen-denominated merchandise exports fell 3.8% year-on-year in December, contrasting the 0.1% increase in November.
January 18, 2019
The core consumer price index fell 0.1% in month-on-month seasonally-adjusted terms in December, contrasting November’s flat reading. Core inflation fell from November’s 0.9% to 0.7% in December, the lowest reading in seven months.
January 18, 2019
Industrial production fell 1.0% on a month-on-month and seasonally-adjusted basis in November (previously reported: -1.1% month-on-month), contrasting October’s 2.9% expansion. On an annual basis, industrial output rose 1.5% in November, following the 4.2% increase logged in October.
January 16, 2019
Core machinery orders, a leading indicator for capital spending over a three- to six-month period, stalled in November, suggesting that firms may trim capital expenditure in the coming months.
January 8, 2019
Consumer sentiment fell from 42.9 in November to 42.7 in December, marking the lowest reading since December 2016.