Exports G&S in Japan
Japan - Exports Goods and Services
Economy expands quicker than initially expected in Q4 2018 on stronger investment
Comprehensive data for the fourth quarter corroborated that the economy returned to growth after a barrage of natural disasters hit the country in the third quarter. According to revised data released by the Cabinet Office on 8 March, GDP rose 1.9% over the previous quarter in seasonally-adjusted annualized terms (SAAR), a stronger expansion than the 1.4% increase initially estimated (Q3: +2.4% SAAR). In annual terms, GDP expanded 0.3% in Q4, accelerating slightly from Q3’s 0.1% growth.
A stronger-than-expected rebound in investment led the overall acceleration in economic growth. Private non-residential investment expanded 11.3% in Q4, up from the preliminary estimate of a 9.8% increase. As a result, gross fixed capital formation rose a faster 6.6% in Q4 (previously reported: +6.1% SAAR). Conversely, growth in private consumption was weaker than initially reported, with a 1.6% increase (previously reported: +2.4% qoq SAAR), casting doubts over the sustainability of the recovery and questioning Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s reforms aimed at shoring up household spending. Growth in public spending and the contribution from the external sector were left broadly unchanged compared to the first estimate.
Looking forward, Takashi Miwa, an analyst at Nomura, notes that:
“Judging from core statistics, it appears quite likely that real exports and real consumer spending have been tracking on the weak side in 2019 Q1. Given that the rebound from real negative growth in 2018 Q3 has been less than impressive, we believe that Japanese real economic growth has likely fallen close to negative territory.”
The median GDP forecast among BoJ members is 0.9% for FY 2019 and 1.0% for FY 2020. Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP expanding 0.9% in calendar year 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. In 2020, the panel sees the economy growing 0.6%.
Japan - Exports G&S Data
|Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)||0.7||9.3||3.0||1.7||6.7|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
|Bond Yield||-0.03||-4.41 %||Apr 22|
|Exchange Rate||111.9||-0.35 %||Apr 22|
|Stock Market||22,218||0.11 %||Apr 22|
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April 23, 2019
The Nikkei flash manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose from March’s 49.2 (previously reported: 48.9) to 49.5 in April.
April 19, 2019
The core consumer price index was flat in month-on-month seasonally-adjusted terms in March, coming in below February’s 0.1% increase.
April 17, 2019
Nominal yen-denominated merchandise exports fell 2.4% year-on-year in March, following the 1.2% decrease in February.
April 11, 2019
Core machinery orders, a leading indicator for capital spending over a three- to six-month period, posted the first increase in fourth months in February but missed market expectations, suggesting that capex will likely remain subdued in the months ahead.
April 8, 2019
Consumer sentiment declined from 41.5 in February to 11.5 in March, marking the lowest reading since February 2016.