Exchange Rate in Japan
Japan - Exchange Rate (average of period)
Trump’s victory and Fed’s hike prompt sharp depreciation of yen
The Japanese yen (JPY) has been depreciating sharply against the U.S. dollar since Donald Trump’s victory in the 8 November presidential election and, in particular, following the United States Federal Reserve’s decision to raise its benchmark interest rate at the 13–14 December meeting. On 15 December, the JPY marked the weakest reading since February this year; it traded at JPY 118.2 per USD. This was 8.2% weaker than the level observed on the same day in November. That said, on an annual basis, the Japanese yen still gained 2.9% against the greenback.
The sharp weakening of the yen mostly reflects expectations that Trump’s policies will boost growth in the world’s largest economy via stronger fiscal stimulus and that the Federal Reserve will have to hike rates, thereby widening U.S.–Japanese interest rate differentials. This situation contrasts with the dynamics observed earlier this year, where rising risk aversion due to an uncertain global outlook had led the yen to strengthen to a nearly three-year high.
If sustained, the depreciation of the yen could cause a rebound in exports, translating into an improvement in businesses’ earnings, higher inflation, and stronger investment and manufacturing activity. Nevertheless, Trump’s unclear policy plans will cast a long shadow on the yen’s performance in the coming months.
Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists expect the yen to trade at 117.7 per USD by the end of 2017. For 2018, the panel projects that the yen will weaken to 119.4 per USD.
Japan - Exchange Rate (aop) Data
|Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)||97.63||115.9||121.1||118.8||112.2|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Japan Exchange Rate (aop) Chart
Source: Thomson Reuters
|Bond Yield||-0.13||-4.41 %||Jun 14|
|Exchange Rate||118.6||-0.35 %||Jun 14|
|Stock Market||21,117||0.11 %||Jun 14|
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June 20, 2019
At its 19–20 May meeting, board members at the Bank of Japan (BoJ) decided in a seven-to-two vote to keep its monetary policy unchanged, in line with market analysts’ expectations.
June 19, 2019
Nominal yen-denominated merchandise exports fell 7.8% year-on-year in May, below April’s 2.4% decline.
June 12, 2019
Core machinery orders, a leading indicator for capital spending over a three- to six-month period, posted the third consecutive increase in April, suggesting that capital expenditure was normalizing before the new escalation in the trade war between China and the United States took place in late April.
June 11, 2019
Although comprehensive data for the first quarter corroborated that the economy expanded for the second consecutive quarter, it also confirmed that the print was mostly led by a sharp drop in imports.
May 31, 2019
Consumer sentiment declined from 11.4 in April to 39.4 in May.