Exchange Rate in Japan
Japan - Exchange Rate (average of period)
Trump’s victory and Fed’s hike prompt sharp depreciation of yen
The Japanese yen (JPY) has been depreciating sharply against the U.S. dollar since Donald Trump’s victory in the 8 November presidential election and, in particular, following the United States Federal Reserve’s decision to raise its benchmark interest rate at the 13–14 December meeting. On 15 December, the JPY marked the weakest reading since February this year; it traded at JPY 118.2 per USD. This was 8.2% weaker than the level observed on the same day in November. That said, on an annual basis, the Japanese yen still gained 2.9% against the greenback.
The sharp weakening of the yen mostly reflects expectations that Trump’s policies will boost growth in the world’s largest economy via stronger fiscal stimulus and that the Federal Reserve will have to hike rates, thereby widening U.S.–Japanese interest rate differentials. This situation contrasts with the dynamics observed earlier this year, where rising risk aversion due to an uncertain global outlook had led the yen to strengthen to a nearly three-year high.
If sustained, the depreciation of the yen could cause a rebound in exports, translating into an improvement in businesses’ earnings, higher inflation, and stronger investment and manufacturing activity. Nevertheless, Trump’s unclear policy plans will cast a long shadow on the yen’s performance in the coming months.
Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists expect the yen to trade at 117.7 per USD by the end of 2017. For 2018, the panel projects that the yen will weaken to 119.4 per USD.
Japan - Exchange Rate (aop) Data
|Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)||97.63||115.9||121.1||118.8||112.2|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Japan Exchange Rate (aop) Chart
Source: Thomson Reuters
|Bond Yield||0.04||-4.41 %||Dec 11|
|Exchange Rate||113.4||-0.35 %||Dec 11|
|Stock Market||21,220||0.11 %||Dec 11|
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Japan: Industrial production sharply rebounds in October, recovering from natural disaster disruptions
November 30, 2018
Industrial production shot up 2.9% on a month-on-month and seasonally-adjusted basis in October, contrasting September’s revised 0.4% decline (previously reported: -1.1% month-on-month)—which came on the back of a wave of natural disasters that hit the country in the month.
November 30, 2018
Consumer sentiment decreased from 43.0 in October to 42.9 in November, marking the lowest reading since December 2016.
November 23, 2018
The Nikkei flash manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell from October’s six-month high reading of 52.9 to 51.8.
November 22, 2018
The core consumer price index rose 0.2% in month-on-month seasonally-adjusted terms in October, above September’s 0.1% increase. Core inflation was stable at September’s 1.0% in October, matching a median market forecast.
November 19, 2018
Nominal yen-denominated merchandise exports rose 8.2% year-on-year in October, contrasting the 1.3% decrease in September.