Imports G&S in Italy
Italy - Imports Goods and Services
Economy stagnates in Q3 following over three years of growth
In the third quarter, GDP remained unchanged over the previous quarter in seasonally- and working-day adjusted terms, according to an advance estimate released by the National Statistics Office (ISTAT) on 30 October. The result marked the worst reading since Q4 2014 and follows fourteen consecutive quarters of growth. Moreover, the reading came below analysts’ expectations of a slight 0.1% quarter-on-quarter expansion. According to the accompanying press release, the stagnation in Q3 reflected growth in the services and agricultural sectors being offset by a contraction in the industrial sector. In annual terms, GDP grew a mediocre 0.8% in Q3, down from the second quarter’s 1.2% expansion and the lowest reading in over three years.
A deterioration in the manufacturing PMI, confirmed by weak industrial production figures in the first two months of the quarter, and declining business confidence throughout Q3 hint at a further loss of momentum in an economy that has been weighed down by protracted political instability, muted productivity and wage growth, and financial turbulences. Moreover, the performance of the external sector suffered from weakness in EU demand in the third quarter. Furthermore, despite further reductions in the stock of non-performing loans recorded in the quarter, the pace of credit growth to firms remained modest. On the demand side, preliminary data indicated that both domestic and external demand were flat in the third quarter. More detailed national accounts data will be released on 30 November.
Met the why particular analysts expect the recovery to continue next year, although at a sluggish pace. Fixed investment is seen expanding, albeit at a softer rate, supported by a banking system that has partially healed its balance sheets. Moreover, continued—although again slowing—employment growth should underpin household spending. However, long-standing problems weigh on Italy’s outlook, including: the second-highest public debt-to-GDP ratio in the European Union, sluggish productivity growth, a slow judicial system, high taxes and cumbersome bureaucracy. Moreover, downside risks stem from uncertainties surrounding the government’s stability and continuous clashes with the European Commission over the direction of its economic program, while a widening fiscal deficit and bulky public debt pose financial risks. Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP growing 1.1% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2020, the panel expects the economy to grow 1.0%.
Italy GDP Forecast
Italy - Imports G&S Data
|Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)||-2.3||3.0||6.6||3.8||5.7|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
|Bond Yield||3.46||-0.11 %||Nov 13|
|Exchange Rate||1.13||0.65 %||Nov 13|
|Stock Market||19,227||-0.99 %||Nov 13|
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November 12, 2018
Industrial output shrank 0.2% in September on a month-on-month, seasonally-adjusted basis, contrasting August’s 1.7% increase.
November 5, 2018
The IHS Markit manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dipped to a near four-year low of 49.2 in October from September’s 50.0.
October 31, 2018
According to provisional data released by the National Statistical Institute (ISTAT) on 31 October, consumer prices remained unchanged month-on-month in October, following September’s 0.5% drop.
October 30, 2018
In the third quarter, GDP remained unchanged over the previous quarter in seasonally- and working-day adjusted terms, according to an advance estimate released by the National Statistics Office (ISTAT) on 30 October.
Italy: Business confidence hits 22-month low likely affected by persistent political uncertainty and rising interest rates
October 30, 2018
The National Institute of Statistics (Istat)’s composite business confidence indicator (Clima di Fiducia delle Imprese Italiane, IESE)—which covers the manufacturing, construction, services and retail sectors—edged down to 112.6 points in October from September’s revised 113.6 points (previously reported: 113.7 points). October’s reading was the result of a deterioration in sentiment in the manufacturing, trade and business services sectors, which more than offset improved sentiment in the construction sector.