GDP in Indonesia
Indonesia - GDP
Economic growth surprisingly soft in Q1
The economy slowed marginally at the outset of 2018, with growth moderating from the fourth quarter. GDP expanded 5.1% over the same quarter of 2017 in Q1, just below Q4’s 5.2% increase. The moderation was below expectations of a 5.2% expansion and marked the worst print since Q2 2017. It came on the back of a contraction in the external sector and weaker government expenditure.
The external sector continued to drag on growth in the first quarter, as the trade deficit widened amid soaring imports and weaker exports. Annual growth in imports accelerated to 12.8% in Q1 (Q4: +11.8% year-on-year), reflecting healthy domestic demand. Meanwhile export growth eased to 6.2% in Q1 from 8.5% in Q4.
On the domestic side, public consumption growth moderated notably to 2.7% annually from 3.8% in Q4 2017. Growth in private consumption was lackluster and broadly unchanged at 4.9% in Q1 (Q4: +5.0 yoy). On a more positive note, fixed investment spending soared in Q1, rising 7.9% annually (Q4: +7.3% yoy), the fastest pace since Q4 2012.
Overall, the economic growth trajectory remains in line with the Central Bank’s forecast of 5.1%–5.5% growth. Private investment should continue to buoy growth, and government spending will likely pick up ahead of the upcoming local elections in June and presidential elections in April 2019. In addition, higher commodity prices and solid global growth should provide additional support. Several downside risks persist, including the depreciation of the rupiah, which is hovering around an over two-year low against the dollar, and weaker-than-expected private consumption.
Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP expanding 5.3% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2019, the panel sees economic growth at 5.4%.
Indonesia - GDP Data
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||5.6||5.0||4.9||5.0||5.1|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Indonesia GDP Chart
Source: Statistics Indonesia.
|Bond Yield||7.28||-0.05 %||Jun 08|
|Exchange Rate||13,930||0.05 %||Jun 14|
|Stock Market||5,994||-0.32 %||Jun 08|
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June 12, 2018
In April, retail sales rose 4.1% over the same month last year, coming in above March’s 2.5% increase and market expectations of a 3.4% increase.
June 5, 2018
Conditions in Indonesia’s manufacturing sector improved in May, according to the IHS Markit and Nikkei manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which ticked up from 51.6 in April to 51.7 in May, the best reading since June 2016.
June 4, 2018
In May, consumer prices increased 0.21% from the previous month, coming in above the 0.11% month-on-month increase observed in April.
May 30, 2018
The Board of Governors of Bank Indonesia (BI) surprised markets by holding an unscheduled meeting on 30 May and deciding to hike interest rates by 25 basis points for the second time in one month.
May 17, 2018
At its 17 and 18 May monetary policy meeting, Bank Indonesia decided to increase interest rates by 25 basis points, the first hike since November 2014, in a move aimed to ensure economic stability.