Trade Balance in India

India Trade Balance | Economic News & Forecasts

India - Trade Balance

Exports increase slowly in February, while imports decrease

Merchandise export growth in annual terms decelerated to 2.4% in February from 3.7% in January. The expansion was underpinned by increased exports of pharmaceutical products. Merchandise imports, meanwhile, tumbled 5.4% in February, contrasting the flat growth in January and primarily due to fewer purchases of oil, precious stones and electronic goods from abroad.

The merchandise trade deficit was USD 9.6 billion in February, notably reduced from USD 14.7 billion in January and USD 12.3 billion in the same month last year. The 12-month trailing sum of the trade deficit shrank for the third consecutive month to USD 179.2 billion in February from 182.0 billion in January.

Commenting on the short-term future of the external sector, analysts at Nomura commented:

“We remain cautious on export growth owing to slowing global demand [and believe] import growth will also be modest in the wake of lagged effect of INR depreciation and domestic slowdown. However, increased oil prices and a pickup in gold demand in response to elections remain key upside risks to our view on import growth.”


India Trade Balance Forecast


Our panelists forecast that exports will expand 7.2% in FY 2018 and imports will rise 5.8%, bringing the merchandise trade deficit to USD 193.0 billion. In FY 2019, we expect exports and imports will expand 9.3% and 7.2% respectively, which would result in a merchandise trade deficit of USD 201.0 billion.

India - Trade Balance Data

2013  2014  2015  2016  2017  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-136.6  -137.5  -117.2  -119.0  -157.0  

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India Trade Balance Chart


India Trade
Note: Trade balance in USD billion.
Source: Reserve Bank of India.

India Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield7.51-0.04 %Mar 11
Exchange Rate69.85-0.09 %Mar 11
Stock Market37,054-0.08 %Mar 11

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