Trade Balance in India
India - Trade Balance
The merchandise trade deficit continues to widen in August
In August, merchandise exports increased 19.2% compared to the same month last year, up from the 14.3% expansion recorded in July. This was also above market expectations of 11.8% growth. In descending order, the fastest growing export categories in July were chemicals, petroleum products, gems and jewelry, engineering goods, and drugs and pharmaceuticals.
Meanwhile, merchandise imports surged 25.4% in August, although this was down slightly from the 28.8% increase in July. This strong reading was primarily due to a 51.6% increase in oil imports—on the back of higher prices—and substantially more purchases of gold from abroad.
The merchandise trade deficit widened to USD 17.4 billion in August from USD 12.7 billion in August 2017 (July: USD 18.0 billion). The 12-month trailing sum of the trade deficit fell from USD 163 billion in July to USD 174 billion in August. Going forward, the deficit is likely to remain large: Indian exporters—who are exempt from the Goods and Services Tax (GST)—continue to be hindered by delayed GST refunds. The ongoing trade war between China and the United States also adds uncertainty for the external side of the economy, as the U.S. is India’s largest export market and China is India’s largest import market. Moreover, our panelists forecast higher global oil prices this fiscal year compared to last year.
India Trade Balance Forecast
Our panelists forecast that exports will expand 12.9% in FY 2018 and imports will rise 15.3%, bringing the merchandise trade deficit to USD 188 billion. In FY 2019, we expect exports will expand 8.2%, while imports will rise 7.9%, resulting in a merchandise trade deficit of USD 202 billion.
India - Trade Balance Data
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||-136.6||-137.5||-117.2||-119.0||-157.0|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
India Trade Balance Chart
Source: Reserve Bank of India.
|Bond Yield||7.76||-0.04 %||Nov 15|
|Exchange Rate||71.91||-0.09 %||Nov 15|
|Stock Market||35,261||-0.08 %||Nov 15|
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India: The private sector grows in October, although companies turn less optimistic about the future
November 5, 2018
The composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) produced by Nikkei and IHS Market rose to 53.0 in October from 51.6 in September.
October 15, 2018
In September, consumer prices fell 0.07% from the previous month, contrasting the 0.43% rise recorded in August.
October 12, 2018
Annual industrial production increased 4.3% in August, down from July’s revised 6.5% (previously reported: +6.6% year-on-year) but above market analysts’ expectations of 3.8% growth. There was a mixed performance across industrial sectors in August.
October 5, 2018
At its monetary policy meeting on 3–5 October, five out of the six members of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to keep interest rates unchanged.
October 4, 2018
The composite Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI), produced by Nikkei and IHS Market, fell to 51.6 in September from 51.9 in August, but remained above the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction in the private sector.