Investment in India
India - Investment
Economic growth surges in the first quarter of FY 2018
In the first quarter of FY 2018—which ran from April to June 2018—GDP grew 8.2% in year-on-year terms in Q1 FY 2018, up from 7.7% in Q4 FY 2017. The figure was above the 7.6% expansion that market analysts had expected and was the highest reading in over two years. All in all, this would suggest that the Indian economy emerged strongly from the downturn that followed the abrupt demonetization of November 2016 and the road bumps caused by the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax in July 2017.
Higher economic growth in April–June was primarily underpinned by greater consumer spending. Private consumption growth accelerated to 8.6% in April–June, up from 6.7% in January–March and the fastest expansion in two-and-a-half years. Meanwhile, government consumption increased by 7.6% in Q1, down substantially from the 16.9% expansion in Q4. Fixed investment rose 11.0%, which, although strong, was still down from 14.4% in Q4.
Exports of goods and services expanded 12.7% in Q1, significantly higher than the 3.6% growth recorded in Q4. Import growth also accelerated in Q1, rising from 11.9% in Q4 to 12.5%. The external sector consequently detracted 0.3 percentage points from economic growth in Q1, notably less than the 1.2 percentage-point deduction in Q4.
Commenting on the Q1 results and the short-term economic outlook for India, analysts at Nomura added:
“Overall, the data suggest an economy in the midst of a strong recovery in [Q1], but the key question is its sustainability. We have our doubts because higher oil prices, tighter global financial conditions and our view that the global economy is set to cyclically slowdown suggest a number of external headwinds. Moreover, we expect the government to cut capital expenditure (given budget constraints) and investment decisions to be delayed (political uncertainty ahead of elections). Therefore, we believe that growth cyclically peaked in [Q1].”
Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists see the economy picking up in FY 2018 and growing 7.3%, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In FY 2019, our panel expects GDP to expand 7.5%.
India - Investment Data
|Investment (annual variation in %)||1.6||2.6||5.2||11.1||-|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
India Investment Chart
Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation and Met the why particular calculations.
|Bond Yield||7.76||-0.04 %||Nov 15|
|Exchange Rate||71.91||-0.09 %||Nov 15|
|Stock Market||35,261||-0.08 %||Nov 15|
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India: The private sector grows in October, although companies turn less optimistic about the future
November 5, 2018
The composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) produced by Nikkei and IHS Market rose to 53.0 in October from 51.6 in September.
October 15, 2018
In September, consumer prices fell 0.07% from the previous month, contrasting the 0.43% rise recorded in August.
October 12, 2018
Annual industrial production increased 4.3% in August, down from July’s revised 6.5% (previously reported: +6.6% year-on-year) but above market analysts’ expectations of 3.8% growth. There was a mixed performance across industrial sectors in August.
October 5, 2018
At its monetary policy meeting on 3–5 October, five out of the six members of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to keep interest rates unchanged.
October 4, 2018
The composite Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI), produced by Nikkei and IHS Market, fell to 51.6 in September from 51.9 in August, but remained above the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction in the private sector.