GDP in India
India - GDP (billions of U.S. Dollars)
Economic growth slows in the third quarter of FY 2018
In the third quarter of fiscal year 2018—which ran from October to December—GDP grew 6.6% compared to the same quarter a year earlier. This was below the revised 7.0% expansion in the second quarter (previously reported: +7.1% year-on-year) and slightly below market analysts’ expectations of 6.7% growth.
Economic growth in Q3 was dented by a slowdown in both private and public consumption. Higher oil prices and tighter financial conditions likely caused private consumption growth to moderate to 8.4% in Q3, which was down from Q2’s 9.8% expansion. Public spending, meanwhile, increased at a slower rate of 6.5% in Q3, down from 11.8% in Q2. On the other hand, fixed investment growth accelerated to 11.6% in Q3 from 11.2% in Q2.
Exports of goods and services increased 14.6% in Q3, up from 13.9% in Q2. Import growth, meanwhile, moderated to 14.7% from 21.4%. The differing fortunes of export and import dynamics in Q3 can partially be attributed to the large currency depreciation in the lead-up to the quarter. All told, the external sector detracted 0.5 percentage points from economic growth in the third quarter of FY 2018, significantly less than the 1.7 percentage-point deduction in the second quarter.
Commenting on the ongoing slowdown, analysts at Nomura believe:
“The cyclical slowdown is likely to worsen in coming quarters. First, global growth momentum is moderating […] Second, tight financial conditions persist […] Third, political uncertainty will likely delay investment decisions in H1 2019. In the near term […] we do not believe low oil prices, a consumption-oriented budget and the Reserve Bank of India’s about-turn towards dovishness will be able to stave off a slowdown.”
Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists see the economy picking up in FY 2019 and growing 7.3%, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In FY 2020, our panel also expects GDP to expand 7.3%.
India - GDP (USD bn) Data
|GDP (USD bn)||1,859||2,044||2,094||2,275||2,607|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
|Bond Yield||7.51||-0.04 %||Mar 11|
|Exchange Rate||69.85||-0.09 %||Mar 11|
|Stock Market||37,054||-0.08 %||Mar 11|
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March 15, 2019
Merchandise export growth in annual terms decelerated to 2.4% in February from 3.7% in January.
March 14, 2019
In February, consumer prices rose 0.22% compared to the previous month, which contrasts the revised 0.36% decrease in January (previously reported: -0.29% month-on-month).
March 12, 2019
Annual industrial production growth decelerated to 1.7% in January from a revised 2.4% in December (previously reported: +1.7% year-on-year).
March 5, 2019
The composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) produced by Nikkei and IHS Market improved to 53.8 in February from 53.6 in January, rising further above the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction in the private sector. The services PMI increased to 52.5 in February from 52.2 in January on the back of a faster increase in new business orders.
February 28, 2019
In the third quarter of fiscal year 2018—which ran from October to December—GDP grew 6.6% compared to the same quarter a year earlier.