GDP in India
India - GDP (billions of U.S. Dollars)
Economic growth slows in the third quarter of FY 2018
In the third quarter of fiscal year 2018—which ran from October to December—GDP grew 6.6% compared to the same quarter a year earlier. This was below the revised 7.0% expansion in the second quarter (previously reported: +7.1% year-on-year) and slightly below market analysts’ expectations of 6.7% growth.
Economic growth in Q3 was dented by a slowdown in both private and public consumption. Higher oil prices and tighter financial conditions likely caused private consumption growth to moderate to 8.4% in Q3, which was down from Q2’s 9.8% expansion. Public spending, meanwhile, increased at a slower rate of 6.5% in Q3, down from 11.8% in Q2. On the other hand, fixed investment growth accelerated to 11.6% in Q3 from 11.2% in Q2.
Exports of goods and services increased 14.6% in Q3, up from 13.9% in Q2. Import growth, meanwhile, moderated to 14.7% from 21.4%. The differing fortunes of export and import dynamics in Q3 can partially be attributed to the large currency depreciation in the lead-up to the quarter. All told, the external sector detracted 0.5 percentage points from economic growth in the third quarter of FY 2018, significantly less than the 1.7 percentage-point deduction in the second quarter.
Commenting on the ongoing slowdown, analysts at Nomura believe:
“The cyclical slowdown is likely to worsen in coming quarters. First, global growth momentum is moderating […] Second, tight financial conditions persist […] Third, political uncertainty will likely delay investment decisions in H1 2019. In the near term […] we do not believe low oil prices, a consumption-oriented budget and the Reserve Bank of India’s about-turn towards dovishness will be able to stave off a slowdown.”
Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists see the economy picking up in FY 2019 and growing 7.3%, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In FY 2020, our panel also expects GDP to expand 7.3%.
India - GDP (USD bn) Data
|GDP (USD bn)||1,859||2,044||2,094||2,275||2,607|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
|Bond Yield||7.39||-0.04 %||May 13|
|Exchange Rate||70.57||-0.09 %||May 13|
|Stock Market||37,091||-0.08 %||May 13|
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May 15, 2019
Merchandise export growth in annual terms plummeted to 0.6% in April, down from 11.0% in March.
May 14, 2019
In April, consumer prices rose 0.50% compared to the previous month and was up from 0.36% in March, primarily due to more expensive food and beverages, and housing. Consumer price inflation was unchanged at 2.9% in April, which was slightly below market analysts’ expectations of 3.0%.
May 11, 2019
Industrial production fell 0.1% in March compared to the same month a year earlier, contrasting the 0.1% growth in February and sharply undershooting market analysts’ expectations of 1.3% growth.
May 6, 2019
The composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) produced by Nikkei and IHS Market moderated to 51.7 in April from 52.7 in March, shifting closer to the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction in the private sector. The services PMI decreased to 51.0 in April from 52.0 in March, which marks the weakest growth in the services sector since last September.
April 15, 2019
In March, consumer prices rose 0.36% compared to the previous month, up from 0.22% in February.