Exchange Rate in India
India - Exchange Rate
The rupee crashes to record low due to large economic imbalances and suppressed investor appetite for emerging-market assets
The rupee weakened to a historic high against the USD in September, compounding the poor performance of recent months. This was largely due to India’s economic imbalances, as demonstrated by the merchandise trade deficit which has reached multi-year highs in recent months, and falling investor confidence in developing economies. On 11 September, the rupee traded at 72.6 per U.S. dollar, worsening 5.4% from the same day a month earlier and the weakest it has been against the USD in history. So far this calendar year, the rupee has shed 13.6% of its value against the dollar.
The rupee’s recent woes have come amid resurging oil prices—as of 11 September, Brent crude oil prices rose more than 11% compared to the same day a year earlier. This has put enormous pressure on India’s merchandise trade balance given that India imports most of its oil and has underpinned inflationary pressures. Moreover, Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists expect the current account deficit to deteriorate this year. In addition to higher oil prices, investors have been fleeing emerging-market assets in recent months, most evidently in Turkey and Argentina. This follows the tightening of monetary policy in major developed economies and the erection of trade barriers around the world, dampening global growth potential. With a similar scenario affecting capital markets in India, this has resulted in outflows from the stock and bond markets, worsening the current account deficit.
Looking ahead, Met the why particular panelists see the rupee strengthening from recent lows, ending FY2018 (which ends in March 2019) at 68.2 INR per USD and ending FY 2019 at INR 67.9 per USD.
India - Exchange Rate Data
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||60.02||62.29||66.25||64.86||65.11|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
India Exchange Rate Chart
Source: Thomson Reuters.
|Bond Yield||7.39||-0.04 %||May 13|
|Exchange Rate||70.57||-0.09 %||May 13|
|Stock Market||37,091||-0.08 %||May 13|
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May 15, 2019
Merchandise export growth in annual terms plummeted to 0.6% in April, down from 11.0% in March.
May 14, 2019
In April, consumer prices rose 0.50% compared to the previous month and was up from 0.36% in March, primarily due to more expensive food and beverages, and housing. Consumer price inflation was unchanged at 2.9% in April, which was slightly below market analysts’ expectations of 3.0%.
May 11, 2019
Industrial production fell 0.1% in March compared to the same month a year earlier, contrasting the 0.1% growth in February and sharply undershooting market analysts’ expectations of 1.3% growth.
May 6, 2019
The composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) produced by Nikkei and IHS Market moderated to 51.7 in April from 52.7 in March, shifting closer to the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction in the private sector. The services PMI decreased to 51.0 in April from 52.0 in March, which marks the weakest growth in the services sector since last September.
April 15, 2019
In March, consumer prices rose 0.36% compared to the previous month, up from 0.22% in February.