GDP per capita in France
France - GDP per capita (Euros)
Growth steady in Q4 2018 despite ‘gilets jaunes’ protests
France’s economy grew 0.3% quarter-on-quarter and on a seasonally-adjusted basis in the fourth quarter of last year, according to a comprehensive estimate released by the Statistical Institute (INSEE). Despite the onset of the ‘gilets jaunes’ protests, which brought much of the country to a standstill for several weeks in November and December, growth through year-end was stable from a quarter earlier (Q3: +0.3% quarter-on-quarter s.a.) and landed in-line with analysts’ expectations. On an annual basis, growth slowed to 0.9% from 1.3% in the third quarter. Full-year growth, meanwhile, came in at 1.5%, down sharply from 2.3% in 2017.
All revisions to the preliminary estimate were marginal. As such, domestic demand was confirmed to have slowed considerably amid the ‘gilets jaunes’ political crisis. Household spending stagnated (Q4: +0.0% qoq s.a.; Q3: +0.4% qoq s.a.) in line with the plunge in consumer confidence, and as demonstrations hurt foot traffic during crucial holiday-shopping weeks. Fixed investment also felt the pinch (Q4: +0.2% qoq s.a.; Q3: +1.0% qoq s.a.) as household investment contracted for another quarter on weaker construction metrics, although corporate investment was still up modestly despite waning business confidence. For its part, government spending accelerated in the quarter (Q4: +0.4% qoq s.a.; Q3: +0.2% qoq s.a.).
External demand, meanwhile, was unexpectedly upbeat. Export growth surged (Q4: +2.3% qoq s.a.; Q3: +0.2% qoq s.a.) on the euro’s weakness against the dollar, and exports to the U.S. helped offset more sluggish trade with the remainder of the Eurozone. Import growth, on the other hand, rebounded (Q4: +1.4% qoq s.a.: Q3: -0.3% qoq s.a.). Taken together, the current-account deficit shrank and the external sector’s contribution to growth edged up to 0.3 percentage points (Q3: 0.2 percentage points).
Commenting on the year ahead, Julien Manceaux, a senior economist at ING, noted:
“Domestic demand will still take time to recover from the abnormal levels of anxiety shown in consumer surveys at the beginning of the year. Given the weaker European economic backdrop that is expected in 2019 and 2020, we believe GDP growth will return to potential, or 1.3% [year-on-year], in both years. If domestic demand recovers slightly, it is likely that external trade will weigh on growth (as it usually does) as the euro catches up some ground against the U.S. dollar over the next two years and less dynamic world trade affects demand for French exports. Note that on this front, all forecasts are made under a ‘no hard Brexit’ assumption.”
Met the why particular analysts expect recent momentum to carry through much of this year on a recovery in domestic demand. Concerns persist, however, over global-trade squabbles and a slowdown across the Eurozone. Analysts expect growth of 1.4% in 2019, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month's forecast. For 2020, they again see growth at 1.4%.
France - GDP per capita (EUR) Data
|GDP per capita (EUR)||33,251||33,601||34,188||34,496||35,387|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
|Bond Yield||0.35||0.46 %||Apr 12|
|Exchange Rate||1.13||0.65 %||Apr 12|
|Stock Market||5,503||-0.29 %||Apr 12|
Get a sample report showing our regional, country and commodities data and analysis.
Request a Trial
Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.
April 15, 2019
On 11 April, the Statistical Institute (INSEE) reported that consumer prices rose 0.8% from a month earlier in March (February: +0.0% month-on-month).
April 3, 2019
In March, the seasonally-adjusted IHS Markit Flash Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dipped back below the 50.0-point threshold, landing at 48.9 points from 50.4 points a month earlier and signaling a deterioration in private-sector activity. March’s reading reflected a drop in output across both the manufacturing and services sectors.
March 27, 2019
Consumer confidence recovered further in March, according to the consumer confidence survey published by the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE), which climbed 1 point from February to land at 96 points.
March 26, 2019
In March, the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies’ (INSEE) business-climate indicator for the manufacturing sector was roughly stable from a month earlier at 112 points (February: 113 points).
March 22, 2019
Industrial output expanded 1.3% from a month earlier and in seasonally-adjusted terms in January, on the heels of a revised flat month-on-month reading in December (previously reported: +0.8% month-on-month s.a.).