Exports G&S in Finland
Finland - Exports Goods and Services
Growth slumps in Q1
Economic growth slowed to 0.2% in seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms in Q1 2019, according to a second GDP release by Statistics Finland. This was down substantially from both the 0.6% growth estimate previously reported and the revised 0.5% growth rate in Q4 2018 (previously reported: 0.8% quarter-on-quarter). In year-on-year calendar-adjusted terms, the economy expanded 1.2% in Q1, which was markedly lower than both the previously reported 2.2% increase and Q4’s revised 2.2% rise (previously reported: +2.3% year-on-year).
The slowdown in Q1 came on the back of a 1.2% decrease in private consumption, which contrasted a 0.7% rise in Q4, likely owing to heightened consumer pessimism. Moreover, fixed investment fell 0.3% in Q1, contrasting the 1.7% increase in Q4, amid lower business confidence. Meanwhile, government consumption rose 2.7% in Q1, contrasting the 0.3% fall in Q4.
Turning to the external sector, exports of goods and services rose 3.0% in Q1. Although this was down slightly from the 3.3% rise in Q4, the reading nevertheless underlines that Finnish exports are faring well despite rising global trade protectionism. Imports, meanwhile, declined 5.7%, contrasting the 3.8% increase in Q4. Overall, the external sector contributed 3.8 percentage points to economic growth in Q1, contrasting the 0.3 percentage-point deduction in Q4 and representing the largest contribution in nearly a decade.
Looking at this year as a whole, the Bank of Finland recently said the economy “will continue to grow, but more moderately than in the past two years and at a considerably slower pace than prior to the onset of the financial crisis in 2008”. The Bank sees the economy slowing to 1.9% this year, before abating further and “converging to its long-term potential rate, at just under 1.5%”. The European Commission broadly concurs with this view and expects private consumption to “remain the driver of growth […] thanks to the expected rise in household labor and non-labor income”. On the other hand, the tight annual budget set by acting Prime Minister Juha Sipila’s center-right administration will weigh on government consumption growth.
Finland GDP Forecast
Our panelists see the economy expanding 1.7% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2020, the panel projects that GDP will grow 1.4%.
Finland - Exports G&S Data
|Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)||1.1||-2.7||0.9||3.5||7.8|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
|Bond Yield||0.09||3.70 %||Jun 11|
|Exchange Rate||8.72||-0.38 %||Jun 14|
|Stock Market||3,901||0.0 %||Jun 14|
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May 29, 2019
Economic growth slowed to 0.2% in seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms in Q1 2019, according to a second GDP release by Statistics Finland.
May 15, 2019
The current account balance fell to a EUR 0.47 billion deficit in March, down from February’s revised EUR 0.15 billion shortfall (previously reported: EUR 0.04 billion deficit).
May 14, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.6% in April compared to the previous month, up from 0.1% in March.
April 18, 2019
The current account balance fell to a EUR 0.04 billion deficit in February, contrasting the revised EUR 0.50 billion surplus in January, which was previously reported as a EUR 0.84 billion surplus.
April 16, 2019
Economic activity grew a working-day adjusted 1.7% in February compared to the same month a year earlier, down from the revised 2.1% rise in January (previously reported: +1.5% year-on-year).