GDP in Egypt
Egypt - GDP
Economic growth slows slightly in the first quarter of FY 2019
According to an announcement by the Ministry of Planning and Administrative Reform on 16 November, GDP increased 5.3% in July–September (Q1 FY 2019) compared to the same three months a year earlier. This is slightly below the 5.4% growth rate achieved in April–June (Q4 FY 2018). Although comprehensive data is not yet available, the largest sectoral contributions to growth in Q1 came from the natural gas, wholesale and retail, agriculture, and telecommunications sectors.
The slight deceleration in economic growth was reflected by most macroeconomic fundamentals. Inflation accelerated in Q1, averaging 14.6% compared to 13.0% in Q4, which likely weighed on the expansion. Moreover, the unemployment rate edged up to 11.0% in Q1 (Q4 FY 2018: +9.9%), while annual industrial production growth slowed markedly to 3.0% (Q4 FY 2018: +8.2%). Meanwhile, the average non-oil private sector PMI remained in contractionary territory, although inched up to 49.8 in Q1 compared to 49.6 in the previous quarter.
Looking ahead, the economic outlook appears bright this fiscal year. Although inflation has picked up recently on the back of energy subsidy cuts and higher food prices, it is expected to moderate going forward. In addition, higher salaries and pensions in the public sector—effective as of July 2018—will likely support private consumption. Meanwhile, investment should continue to benefit from recent reforms to improve the business environment, coupled with higher government investment spending.
Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to expand 5.2% in FY 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 5.2% again in FY 2020.
Egypt - GDP Data
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||2.2||2.9||4.4||4.3||4.2|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Egypt GDP Chart
Source: Ministry of Planning.
|Bond Yield||18.05||0.0 %||Dec 11|
|Exchange Rate||17.91||0.0 %||Dec 11|
|Stock Market||1,221||0.53 %||Dec 11|
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December 6, 2018
The Emirates NBD Egypt Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) ticked up to 49.2 in November from 48.6 in October.
November 16, 2018
According to an announcement by the Ministry of Planning and Administrative Reform on 16 November, GDP increased 5.3% in July–September (Q1 FY 2019) compared to the same three months a year earlier.
November 15, 2018
At its monetary policy meeting held on 15 November, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) left the overnight deposit rate at 16.75%, the overnight lending rate at 17.75% and the main operation rate at 17.25%.
November 11, 2018
In October, urban consumer prices rose 2.59% from the previous month, more than September’s 2.53% increase.
November 5, 2018
The Emirates NBD Egypt Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) ticked down to 48.6 in October, compared to 48.7 in September.