Investment in Colombia
Colombia - Investment
Economic recovery picks up in the first quarter
According to the latest GDP data released by the National Statistical Institute (DANE) on 22 May, the economy grew 2.2% in the first quarter, picking up from a revised 1.8% figure in the final quarter of 2017 (previously reported: +1.6% year-on-year). A pick-up in private consumption and government spending drove the upturn. Meanwhile, economic growth in seasonally-adjusted, quarter-on-quarter terms rose to 0.7% in Q1, up from 0.5% in Q4. An important note is that this data release has changed the series base to 2015, which means that the overall figure, and thus past growth figures, have been revised under the new methodology.
Overall, domestic demand expanded at a weaker pace in Q1, growing 1.3% year-on-year in the quarter compared to 2.1% in Q4. The downturn was due to a sharp contraction in fixed investment, which offset accelerations in both private consumption and government spending. Fixed investment fell 3.9% in the quarter after rising 0.6% in Q4. On the other hand, household consumption grew 2.5% in annual terms amid lower level of inflation, following an expansion of 1.7% in Q4. Government consumption soared 7.3% in the first quarter, up from 4.8% in the previous quarter.
While exports contracted again in the first quarter, they did so at a softer pace. Exports fell 0.5% in Q1, following a more sizeable contraction of 3.7% in Q4. Imports also fell, with the rate of decline moderating as well. In Q1, imports dropped 1.7% after contracting 3.8% in the previous quarter. The overall contribution of the external sector to growth was positive, as imports contracted more sharply than exports.
While the economic recovery is underway and is expected to strengthen on the back of higher oil prices in the coming quarters, a high fiscal deficit continues to pose risks to long-term fiscal sustainability.
Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast project that GDP will expand 2.5% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2019, panelists expect GDP growth to accelerate to 3.0%.
Colombia - Investment Data
|Investment (annual variation in %)||6.8||9.8||1.9||-2.7||0.1|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
|Bond Yield||6.65||0.0 %||Jul 13|
|Exchange Rate||2,859||-0.17 %||Jul 13|
|Stock Market||12,262||-0.66 %||Jul 13|
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July 5, 2018
According to the National Department of Administrative Statistics (DANE), consumer prices rose 0.15% over the previous month in June, a smaller rise than the 0.25% month-on-month increase in May.
July 3, 2018
The seasonally-adjusted Davivienda manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) climbed to 53.0 in June, up from 51.1 in May, which marks the highest result since January 2016.
June 29, 2018
At its 29 June Board of Directors meeting, Colombia’s Central Bank (Banco de la República, BanRep) unanimously voted to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%, following a rate cut by 25 basis points at its last meeting held in April.
June 19, 2018
The Fedesarollo consumer confidence index shot up to 8.9 points in May from 1.5 points in April, moving further above the zero-point threshold separating optimism from pessimism among consumers.
June 15, 2018
According to data released by Colombia’s National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) on 15 June, industrial output expanded 11.5% over the same month of the previous year in April, contrasting a revised 1.2% year-on-year contraction in March (previously reported: -1.4% year-on-year). Looking at a breakdown of the data, 34 out of the 39 industrial activities recorded an upturn, while the remaining five categories registered a decline.