Consumption in Colombia
Colombia - Consumption
Growth accelerates in the second quarter
According to the latest GDP data released by the National Statistical Institute (DANE) on 22 August, the economy accelerated on the back of a rebound in fixed investment and a pick up in private consumption. In annual terms, GDP expanded 2.8% in the second quarter, up from 2.2% in the first quarter.
Looking at a breakdown of the components, domestic demand accelerated to 2.5% in the second quarter, up from 1.5% in the first quarter. Private consumption rose 2.7% in Q2 amid a jump in consumer confidence to the highest level in a year, which followed a 2.0% expansion in Q1. Meanwhile, fixed investment rebounded, growing 1.7% in Q2 following a 0.7% contraction in Q1. A recovery in the output of machinery and equipment, and cultivated biological resources drove the upturn in fixed investment. Government spending, on the other hand, expanded at a slightly slower pace of 5.6%, down from 6.0% in the first quarter.
While exports rebounded in the second quarter, the external sector dragged on growth in Q2 as imports accelerated more sharply. Exports rose 3.0% in Q2 after a 0.7% drop in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, imports climbed 5.5%, contrasting a 1.4% contraction in Q1. Thus, the overall contribution of the external sector to growth was negative in the second quarter, following a positive reading in the first quarter.
In seasonally-adjusted, quarter-on-quarter terms, however, economic growth lost pace, declining from 0.9% in Q2 to 0.6% in Q1, owing to a cutback in government consumption compared to the previous quarter which was partly offset by a strong recovery in fixed investment. While the recovery in economic activity is seen picking up in the coming quarters, thanks to improving domestic demand and higher projected global oil prices, a high fiscal deficit continues to pose risks to long-term fiscal sustainability.
Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast project that GDP will expand 2.6% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2019, panelists expect GDP growth to accelerate to 3.1%.
Colombia - Consumption Data
|Consumption (annual variation in %)||4.8||4.6||3.4||1.4||2.2|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
|Bond Yield||7.09||0.0 %||Nov 15|
|Exchange Rate||3,190||-0.17 %||Nov 15|
|Stock Market||12,327||-0.66 %||Nov 15|
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November 14, 2018
According to data released by Colombia’s National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) on 14 November, the industrial sector grew at a weaker pace of 2.9% over the same month of the previous year in September, after expanding a revised 4.2% year-on-year in August (previously reported: +3.9% year-on-year). Looking at a breakdown of the data showed that September’s weaker pace of expansion was due to a marked drop in the output of coking, oil refining and fuel blending, along with more modest downturns in the manufacture of basic chemical substances and their products, and manufacture of metal products. Annual average growth in industrial production climbed to 2.0% in September, up from 1.5% in August. Colombia Industrial Production Forecast
November 3, 2018
According to the National Department of Administrative Statistics (DANE), consumer prices rose 0.12% over the previous month in October, after a 0.16% month-on-month increase in September.
November 1, 2018
According to the National Department of Administrative Statistics (DANE), the annual pace of expansion in exports declined markedly to a six-month low of 3.8% in September from 13.1% in August.
November 1, 2018
Colombia’s manufacturing sector continued to weaken in October, with the seasonally-adjusted Davivienda manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) falling to 52.0 from 52.8 in September.
October 26, 2018
At its 26 October Board of Directors meeting, Colombia’s Central Bank (Banco de la República, BanRep) took the unanimous decision to keep the benchmark interest rate on hold at 4.25%, where it has been since 27 April when the Bank cut the rate by 25 basis points.