Fiscal Balance in Brazil
Brazil - Fiscal BalanceEconomic data has taken a turn for the worse following a nationwide truckers’ strike in May and early June that crippled economic activity. Industrial production recorded the largest contraction in almost 11 years in May, and the manufacturing PMI plunged into contractionary territory in June. In addition, both business and consumer sentiment dropped in June, weighed on by the industrial action. All-in-all the strike and related spillover effects are expected to have dented GDP growth in the second quarter, following a slowdown in activity in the first quarter of the year. On the political front, October’s elections are coming into focus, and the lack of a strong centrist and reform-minded contender is casting a shadow on the country’s future and reverberating through financial markets. The Ibovespa index recorded its largest quarterly drop since 2015 in Q2, weighed down by political uncertainty as well as tightening global financial conditions. Early polls place far-right candidate Jair Bolsonero in the lead but show that former President Lula da Silva would be on top if he can contend.
Brazil - Fiscal Balance Data
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-3.0||-6.0||-11.2||-9.0||-7.8|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
|Bond Yield||11.35||-0.82 %||Jul 13|
|Exchange Rate||3.85||-0.13 %||Jul 13|
|Stock Market||76,594||-0.11 %||Jul 13|
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July 11, 2018
Retail sales (excluding cars and construction) fell 0.6% from the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms in May, contrasting April’s revised 0.7% expansion (previously reported: +1.0% month-on-month).
July 6, 2018
Consumer prices rose 1.26% in June over the previous month, the sharpest increase since January 2016.
July 3, 2018
Industrial production plunged in May, dropping at the fastest pace since December 2008.
July 2, 2018
Business sentiment in Brazil declined in June, with the Getulio Vargas Foundation’s (FGV, Fundaçao Getúlio Vargas) business confidence index falling to 110.1 points in June from 111.1 points in May.
July 2, 2018
Conditions in Brazil’s manufacturing sector weakened in June according to the IHS Markit.