Inflation in Australia
Australia - Inflation (end of period)
Inflation slumps to two-and-a-half-year low in Q1, driving down the AUD
In the first quarter of 2019, consumer prices remained unchanged over the previous quarter, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The figure came short of market expectations and below the 0.5% quarter-on-quarter increase recorded in the previous quarter. According to the ABS, Q1’s print was mainly the result of higher prices for education, health, and for food and non-alcoholic beverages, which were offset by lower prices for clothing and footwear, transport, and recreation and culture.
Inflation sunk to 1.3% in Q1 from Q4’s 1.8%, again undershooting market expectations. It was the lowest reading since Q3 2016 and moved further below the Reserve Bank’s 2.0%–3.0% target band. Regional variations persisted, although differences were less pronounced than in previous quarters: Inflation came in between 1.1% and 1.5% everywhere excluding Hobart, where it exceeded 2.0%, and Darwin, where it was 0.4%.
Moderate wage growth and an ongoing correction in house prices in the East coast likely continued to keep inflation in check. Markets reacted by driving the Australian dollar down, as the soft inflation reading increases the likelihood that the Central Bank will cut rates in the near-term.
Met the why particular panelists expect inflation to average 2.3% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.2% in 2020.
Australia - Inflation (eop) Data
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)||2.8||1.7||1.7||1.5||1.9|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Australia Inflation (eop) Chart
Source: Australia Bureau of Statistics and Met the why particular calculations.
|Bond Yield||1.38||1.47 %||Jun 14|
|Exchange Rate||0.69||0.05 %||Jun 14|
|Stock Market||6,634||0.08 %||Jun 14|
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June 13, 2019
Seasonally-adjusted employment increased by 42,300 in May from the previous month, following the revised 43,110 jobs added in March (previously reported: +28,110 jobs) and more than doubling analysts’ expectations of a gain of 17,500.
Australia: Consumer sentiment dips on weak national accounts but remains in optimistic territory in June
June 12, 2019
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index dipped to 110.7 in June from 111.3 in May.
June 11, 2019
The business confidence index produced by National Australia Bank (NAB) jumped to 7.3 points in May from April’s revised plus 0.1 points (previously reported: minus 0.3 points).
June 5, 2019
Australia’s economy gained steam in the first quarter, supported by a stronger external sector and a softer contraction in fixed investment, according to figures released by Australia’s Statistical Institute (ABS) on 5 June.
June 4, 2019
Nominal retail sales in April dipped 0.1% over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, swinging from March’s 0.3% uptick.