GDP per capita in Argentina
Argentina - GDP per capita (U.S. Dollars)
Economic contraction softens in Q3
According to the Statistical Institute (Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas y Censos, INDEC), economic activity in the third quarter contracted 3.5% in year-on-year terms on the back of plunging domestic demand. However, this was a softer drop than the 4.0% fall recorded in the second quarter. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy shrank 0.7% in Q3, following the 4.1% plunge observed in Q2, which had marked the most severe contraction in nearly a decade.
The fall in Q3 reflected weakness in the domestic economy. Domestic demand fell 5.0% following Q2’s 1.5% drop, while private consumption swung from Q2’s 0.6% expansion to a notable 4.5% contraction in Q3. Consumer spending was hit by a significant depreciation of the peso and continued subsidy cuts in public utilities, which translated into soaring inflation and ate into consumers’ purchasing power, dragging down consumer confidence. Moreover, fixed investment plummeted 11.2% in the third quarter, strongly contrasting the 2.9% increase recorded in the previous quarter, owing to a sharp contraction in machinery and transport equipment. Meanwhile, government consumption contracted 5.0% in the third quarter, a sharper fall than Q2’s 2.6% decrease. The decline again reflected the government’s intensifying efforts to rein in fiscal spending and reduce the fiscal deficit.
The external sector’s performance, meanwhile, improved in the third quarter, although this was only due to imports contracting at a faster pace than exports. Imports swung from a 3.1% increase in Q2 to a notable 11.2% drop in Q3, reflecting shrinking private consumption and plunging demand for investment goods, as the contraction in exports moderated from 8.5% in Q2 to 5.9% in Q3, thanks to improved agricultural production in the quarter.
The economy will likely remain stuck in recession next year, although the contraction should soften. Strong, albeit moderating, inflationary pressures and rising taxes will eat into consumers’ purchasing power, while high interest rates and shrinking public investment will weigh on fixed investment. That said, the trade balance is set to swing from deficit to surplus, thanks to higher agricultural exports and lower imports, while the fiscal deficit ought to narrow. Downside risks stem from possible capital flight following the Fed’s tightening cycle and the uncertain political outcome in next October’s elections. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast analysts see the economy contracting 0.9% in 2019, down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s estimate, before rebounding to 2.7% growth in 2020.
Argentina GDP Forecast
Argentina - GDP per capita (USD) Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||14,511||13,133||15,111||12,507||14,609|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
|Bond Yield||6.69||0.15 %||Dec 17|
|Exchange Rate||37.81||0.45 %||Jan 21|
|Stock Market||35,303||2.26 %||Jan 21|
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January 23, 2019
Exports leaped 15.4% in year-on-year terms in December, following November’s 14.6% increase.
January 16, 2019
According to the National Statistical Institute (INDEC), national consumer prices rose 2.6% over the previous month in December, coming in below November’s 3.2% month-on-month increase. December’s reading represented the third consecutive month of decelerating month-on-month price increases.
January 15, 2019
At its latest meeting held on 2 January, the Central Bank of Argentina (Banco Central de la República Argentina, BCRA) announced it will meet the 0% monetary base growth target in January and could surpass its goal in February and March.
January 3, 2019
Industrial production plunged 13.3% over the same month of last year in November, according to data released by the National Statistical Institute (INDEC) on 3 January, marking a steeper fall than October’s 6.8% year-on-year decline and the worst reading since June 2002. November’s result again reflected contractions in almost all components of the index.
December 28, 2018
The monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE, Estimador Mensual de Actividad Económica) contracted 4.0% in annual terms in October, a softer drop than the revised 6.1% fall recorded in September (previously reported: -5.8% year-on-year).