GDP in Argentina
Argentina - GDP
Economy contracts sharply in Q2
According to the Statistical Institute (Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas y Censos, INDEC), economic activity in the second quarter swung from Q1’s 3.9% year-on-year expansion to a sharp 4.2% contraction. The print comes after five consecutive quarters of growth and represents the lowest reading since Q3 2014. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy plunged 4.0% in the second quarter, contrasting the 0.7% increase in the first quarter and marking the worst contraction in nearly ten years.
The downturn in Q2 reflected contractions in both domestic and external demand as well as the effects of severe drought. Domestic demand swung from a 6.4% expansion in Q1 to a 2.0% fall in Q2. Growth in private consumption decelerated notably from Q1’s 4.3% expansion to a slight 0.3% increase. Consumer spending was likely hit by a weaker currency and subsidy cuts in public utilities, which continued to fan inflation and eat into consumers’ pockets, as well as by falling confidence. Fixed investment rose 3.1% in the second quarter, far below the 15.7% figure recorded in the previous quarter. A sharp slowdown in construction activity growth and a downturn in the manufacturing sector were largely behind the weak quarterly expansion in fixed investment. Meanwhile, government consumption contracted 2.1% in the second quarter, a sharper fall than Q1’s 1.2% decrease. The decline again reflected the government’s efforts to rein in fiscal spending and reduce the fiscal deficit.
The external sector, meanwhile, performed poorly in the second quarter, as imports continued to grow while exports fell significantly. Growth in imports moderated from 15.6% in Q1 to 2.7% in Q2, while exports swung from a 6.4% expansion in Q1 to a 7.5% plunge in Q2. Softer growth in imports largely reflected weaker private consumption and shrinking demand for intermediate goods from industry, while the sharp contraction in agricultural output and the drop in industrial production weighed heavily on foreign sales.
A majority of Met the why particular Consensus Forecast analysts now see the economy contracting this year, before returning to feeble growth next year. They see the economy shrinking 1.2% in 2018 and rebounding to 0.7% growth in 2019, down 1.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate.
Argentina GDP Forecast
Argentina - GDP Data
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||2.4||-2.5||2.7||-1.8||2.9|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Argentina GDP Chart
Source: National Statistical Institute (INDEC) and Met the why particular calculations.
|Bond Yield||6.69||0.15 %||Dec 17|
|Exchange Rate||36.06||0.45 %||Nov 15|
|Stock Market||30,474||2.26 %||Nov 15|
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November 16, 2018
According to the National Statistical Institute (INDEC), national consumer prices rose 5.4% over the previous month in October, coming in below September’s 6.5% month-on-month increase, which had marked the fastest increase in prices since April 2016.
November 7, 2018
Industrial production contracted 11.5% in September over the same month of last year, according to data released by the National Statistical Institute (INDEC) on 6 November, a sharper fall than August’s 5.6% year-on-year decline and marked a multi-year low. September’s reading reflected more severe contractions in almost all components of the index.
November 5, 2018
On 26 October, the IMF formally approved the upgraded standby agreement (SBA) announced in late September, which should cover the government’s financing needs for 2019 and grant President Mauricio Macri some breathing room ahead of next year’s general election.
October 26, 2018
The Universidad Torcuato di Tella (UTDT) consumer confidence index fell to 32.6 points in October from 33.7 points in September, marking the worst reading since September 2002.
October 26, 2018
The monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE, Estimador Mensual de Actividad Económica) contracted 1.6% in annual terms in August, a much softer drop than the 2.7% fall recorded in July.