Zambia Economic Forecast

Zambia Economic Outlook

January 22, 2019

Despite a moderation in the all-important mining and quarrying sector, the copper-dependent economy accelerated in the third quarter on the back of notable expansions in financial and insurance activities, and the information and communication sector. Annual GDP growth climbed to 5.0% in Q3 from 3.9% in Q2. Momentum likely waned going into the final quarter, however, due to a contraction in exports amid slowing global growth. Moreover, private sector activity likely shrank again, with higher fuel costs and weakness in the kwacha weighing on demand, as the PMI remained in pessimistic territory.

Zambia Economic Growth

The economy is expected to lose pace this year, with incoming higher mining duties aimed at bringing down the rising public debt curbing mining output. Headwinds to the outlook arise from a hefty external debt burden and increasing likelihood of debt distress. Deteriorating investor confidence following September’s lending freeze, which sparked a sharp selloff in the kwacha, continue to pose downside risks. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to grow 3.5% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.6% in 2020.

Zambia Economy Data

Population (million)15.215.716.216.717.2
GDP per capita (USD)1,8011,6611,0461,2931,563
GDP (USD bn)27.526.117.021.626.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.2-5.7-9.3-5.8-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)  
Money (annual variation in %)11.811.324.90.120.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)7.17.921.17.56.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)7.07.811.117.96.6
Exchange Rate (vs USD)5.556.1111.009.9311.01
Policy Interest Rate (%)9.7512.5015.5015.5011.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)5.396.168.6611.319.54
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.82.2-4.9-4.3-2.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.20.6-0.8-0.9-0.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)0.0-0.1-1.4-1.0-0.6
Exports (USD billion)
Imports (USD billion)
Exports (annual variation in %)11.0-8.7-27.3-7.625.0
Imports (annual variation in %)20.2-7.5-13.5-11.015.7
International Reserves (USD)

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Zambia Facts

Bond Yield26.000.0 %Feb 14
Exchange Rate11.970.0 %Feb 14
Stock Market0.10.0 %Feb 14

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