Zambia Economic Forecast

Zambia Economic Outlook

May 22, 2018

Economic growth likely gained traction in the first quarter. Exports climbed more than imports and swung the trade balance from deficit to surplus, thanks to a surge in non-traditional exports that countered a drop in overseas sales of copper. Business conditions in Zambia’s private sector continued to brighten as the negative effects of the cholera outbreak faded; the PMI jumped to 51.2 in April from 50.7 in March. On the other hand, subdued private sector credit growth is likely restraining private consumption. Zambia’s currency continued sliding against the dollar this month amid stalled loan talks with the IMF over concerns that the country is downplaying its external debt burden.

Zambia Economic Growth

Met the why particular panelists project Zambia’s GDP expanding 4.4% this year, thanks in part to higher commodity prices. A sizeable external debt burden and low international reserves, along with uncertainty over assistance from the IMF, present downside risks to the outlook. Next year, GDP growth is seen rising to 4.6%.

Zambia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)15.215.716.216.717.2
GDP per capita (USD)1,8011,6611,0461,299-  
GDP (USD bn)27.526.117.021.7-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.15.02.93.6-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-1.925.0-  -  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.2-5.8-9.5-  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)25.933.357.5-  -  
Money (annual variation in %)11.811.324.90.1-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)7.17.921.17.5-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)7.07.811.117.9-  
Policy Interest Rate (%)9.7512.5015.5015.50-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)5.556.1111.009.93-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)5.396.168.6611.31-  
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.82.1-4.5-  -  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)0.1-0.3-0.8-  -  
Trade Balance (USD billion)0.40.1-0.1-1.0-  
Exports (USD billion)11.69.77.46.5-  
Imports (USD billion)11.29.57.47.6-  
Exports (annual variation in %)12.7-8.9-28.0-11.4-  
Imports (annual variation in %)15.2-6.4-13.51.8-  
International Reserves (USD)2.73.13.02.4-  

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Zambia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield19.330.0 %May 15
Bond Yield19.330.0 %May 15
Exchange Rate11.180.0 %May 21
Exchange Rate11.180.0 %May 21
Stock Market0.20.0 %May 21
Stock Market0.20.0 %May 21

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