Yemen Economic Forecast

Yemen Economic Outlook

March 5, 2019

Although the fragile truce between government forces and Houthi rebels around the crucial port city of Hodeidah has held in recent weeks, no breakthrough has been made to remove rival armed forces, which is vital to improving peace prospects. More positively, aid workers finally gained access to a major food storage facility near Hodeidah on 26 February. The grain contained in the facility was confirmed to be enough to feed approximately 3.7 million people for a month, which is important given approximately 11 million Yemenis are at risk of famine. In related news, a major UN-backed initiative is now underway, which aims to raise USD 4.2 billion in aid.

Yemen Economic Growth

For the first time in six years, the economy is expected to return to growth this year, although this is mainly due to a miserably-low base effect. Met the why particular panelists expect the economy to expand 3.1% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 5.5% in 2020.

Yemen Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)26.727.528.329.130.0
GDP per capita (USD)1,3441,164937761-  
GDP (USD bn)35.832.026.522.2-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.6-11.6-29.2-9.8-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.9-7.1-12.0-  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)48.251.670.9-  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)11.08.239.45.020.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)15.0015.0015.0015.0015.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)214.9215.0215.2250.2250.3
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)215.0215.0215.0241.0250.3
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.3-4.7-11.4-  -  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.5-1.5-3.0-  -  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-6.2-9.6-6.1-6.9-  
Exports (USD billion)7.12.50.50.2-  
Imports (USD billion)13.312.16.67.0-  
Exports (annual variation in %)1.4-64.6-81.5-60.5-  
Imports (annual variation in %)17.9-9.1-45.57.1-  
International Reserves (USD)5.34.72.0-  -  
External Debt (% of GDP)21.124.527.531.9-  

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Yemen Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate250.10.0 %Mar 20
Stock Market0.10.0 %Mar 20

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