Yemen Economic Forecast

Yemen Economic Outlook

November 27, 2018

In mid-November Saudi and UAE-backed government forces halted their offensive on the besieged port city of Hodeidah, which historically has brought most food and fuel supplies into Yemen and is currently controlled by the Houthi rebels. However, hopes of a prolonged lull in this conflict were dashed only a few days later when fighting resumed. More positively, UN-backed peace talks between the government and Houthi rebels are expected to take place in Sweden in early December; the latest push for peace follows UN warnings in October that Yemen is facing the world’s worst famine in a century.

Yemen Economic Growth

Despite the ongoing conflict, the economy is expected to return to growth for the first time in six years in 2019, although this is primarily due to a miserably-low base effect. Met the why particular panelists expect the economy to expand 4.9% in 2019, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 7.0% in 2020.

Yemen Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)26.727.528.329.130.0
GDP per capita (USD)1,3441,164937761-  
GDP (USD bn)35.832.026.522.2-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.6-11.6-29.2-9.8-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.9-7.1-12.0-  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)48.251.670.9-  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)11.08.239.45.020.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)15.0015.0015.0015.0015.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)214.9215.0215.2250.2250.3
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)215.0215.0215.0241.0250.3
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.3-4.7-11.4-  -  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.5-1.5-3.0-  -  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-6.2-9.6-6.1-6.9-  
Exports (USD billion)7.12.50.50.2-  
Imports (USD billion)13.312.16.67.0-  
Exports (annual variation in %)1.4-64.6-81.5-60.5-  
Imports (annual variation in %)17.9-9.1-45.57.1-  
International Reserves (USD)5.34.72.0-  -  
External Debt (% of GDP)21.124.527.531.9-  

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Yemen Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate250.40.0 %Jan 21
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 21

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