Yemen Economic Forecast

Yemen Economic Outlook

July 3, 2018

In mid-June, Saudi-backed forces captured the airport of Hodeidah—a Houthi-held port city which is a vital entry point for humanitarian aid—and the coalition is currently preparing an attack on the seaport. The UN has suggested the port could be brought under international control to avoid civilian casualties and interruptions to food and fuel imports, although both sides have yet to reach an agreement on the issue. Although the port currently remains operational, and fighting has yet to reach the city itself, the conflict is already causing serious disruptions: Residents are being displaced, and the closure of many shops has seen food become more scarce and the price of basic staples climb.

Yemen Economic Growth

The economy is likely to continue shrinking this year because of the ongoing heavy conflict. Met the why particular panelists expect the economy to contract 0.7% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast. They see the economy expanding 7.9% in 2019.

Yemen Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)26.727.528.329.130.0
GDP per capita (USD)1,3441,164937761-  
GDP (USD bn)35.832.026.522.2-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.6-11.6-29.2-9.8-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.9-7.1-12.0-  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)48.251.670.9-  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)11.08.239.45.020.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)15.0015.0015.0015.0015.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)214.9215.0215.2250.2250.3
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)215.0215.0215.0241.0250.3
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.3-4.7-11.4-  -  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.5-1.5-3.0-  -  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-6.2-9.6-6.1-6.9-  
Exports (USD billion)7.12.50.50.2-  
Imports (USD billion)13.312.16.67.0-  
Exports (annual variation in %)1.4-64.6-81.5-60.5-  
Imports (annual variation in %)17.9-9.1-45.57.1-  
International Reserves (USD)5.34.72.0-  -  
External Debt (% of GDP)21.124.527.531.9-  

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Yemen Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate250.40.0 %Jul 13
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jul 13

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