Vietnam Economic Forecast

Vietnam Economic Outlook

May 21, 2019

The economy appeared to perform well at the outset of the second quarter. In April, the manufacturing PMI increased on a recovery in employment, while industrial production growth rose. Moreover, exports expanded robustly year-on-year in the same month, despite external trade headwinds, and retail sales surged, likely supported by mild price pressures. In the first four months of the year, FDI was up markedly, potentially driven in part by firms diverting production away from China amid the prolonged U.S.-China trade dispute. This comes after economic momentum ebbed in the first quarter of the year, weighed on by slower growth across all sectors. In late April, the IMF completed a staff visit. While highlighting broad-based growth and fiscal consolidation efforts in recent years, the Fund encouraged the government to cut red tape and improve the private sector’s access to land and credit.

Vietnam Economic Growth

The outlook for 2019 remains favorable. Household spending will remain brisk amid modest inflation and rising incomes, while stronger tourism, FDI, exports and industrial output should continue to power growth. The possibility of a larger-than-expected Chinese or global slowdown pose downside risks. Met the why particular panelists project the economy expanding 6.6% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 6.4% in 2020.

Vietnam Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)89.890.791.792.793.6
GDP per capita (USD)1,8932,0292,0332,1112,355
GDP (USD bn)170184186196221
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.46.06.76.26.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.26.19.37.3-  
Investment (annual variation in %)5.39.39.49.9-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.97.611.07.39.4
Unemployment Rate3.63.43.43.2-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.6-6.3-6.3-5.6-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)51.855.057.059.8-  
Money (annual variation in %)18.917.716.218.4-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)6.01.80.64.72.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.64.10.62.73.5
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)5.33.3-0.3-0.52.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)7.006.506.506.506.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)21,09521,38822,48522,77122,711
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)21,02921,19821,92922,37022,716
Current Account (% of GDP)4.65.10.34.62.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)7.79.40.69.06.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)0.40.8-4.12.12.9
Exports (USD billion)133150162177215
Imports (USD billion)133149166174212
Exports (annual variation in %)16.512.67.99.021.6
Imports (annual variation in %)18.212.311.35.021.4
International Reserves (USD)25.934.228.336.5-  
External Debt (% of GDP)38.539.341.744.5-  

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Vietnam Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield4.76-0.13 %May 13
Exchange Rate23,3290.01 %May 13
Stock Market9590.15 %May 13

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