Vietnam Economic Forecast

Vietnam Economic Outlook

June 19, 2018

Available data suggests that the economy is growing at a robust, but slightly more moderate, stride in the second quarter. Both industrial output and retail sales expanded at a strong pace on average in the first two months of the quarter, but lost some steam in May. Growth in retail sales moderated as an upturn in inflation ate into consumers’ purchasing power. Moreover, the performance of the external sector deteriorated in May as import growth outpaced export growth. On the upside, overseas capital continued pouring into the economy at a healthy pace. While the economy is on track for another year of stellar growth, social unrest erupted recently when thousands in central Vietnam demonstrated over government plans to lease special economic zones, which they fear will be dominated by Chinese investors. In light of the protests, the National Assembly voted on 11 June to delay discussion of the proposed law until October.

Vietnam Economic Growth

The economy is expected to grow at a strong pace again this year on the back of increased demand for manufacturing exports and a continued rise in FDI inflows that should support export-oriented industries. Household consumption should be propped up by rising household incomes and a swift expansion in private credit. That said, the rapid rise in private credit presents risks to financial stability in the medium-term. In a bid to alleviate the risks, the government has restricted lending to less productive industries. Met the why particular panelists expect the economy to expand 6.6% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 6.6% again in 2019.

Vietnam Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)89.890.791.792.793.6
GDP per capita (USD)1,8932,0292,0332,1112,355
GDP (USD bn)170184186196221
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.46.06.76.26.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.26.19.37.3-  
Investment (annual variation in %)5.39.39.49.9-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.97.611.07.39.4
Unemployment Rate3.63.43.43.23.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.6-6.3-6.3-5.6-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)51.855.057.059.8-  
Money (annual variation in %)18.917.716.218.4-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)6.01.80.64.72.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.64.10.62.73.5
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)5.33.3-0.3-0.52.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)7.006.506.506.506.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)21,09521,38822,48522,77122,711
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)21,02921,19821,92922,37022,716
Current Account (% of GDP)4.65.10.34.62.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)7.79.40.69.06.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)0.40.8-4.12.12.9
Exports (USD billion)133150162177215
Imports (USD billion)133149166174212
Exports (annual variation in %)16.512.67.99.021.6
Imports (annual variation in %)18.212.311.35.021.4
International Reserves (USD)25.934.228.336.5-  
External Debt (% of GDP)38.539.341.744.5-  

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Vietnam Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield4.84-0.13 %Jul 13
Exchange Rate23,0510.01 %Jul 13
Stock Market9110.15 %Jul 13

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