Vietnam Economic Forecast

Vietnam Economic Outlook

March 19, 2019

Economic momentum appears to be holding up in the first quarter of the year as the resilient manufacturing sector defies external headwinds from weakening global growth and the slowdown in China. Industrial production picked up in February on stronger manufacturing output, although growth in the first two months was well below that of the same period last year. Manufacturing operating conditions also improved in the same month—albeit at the softest pace in nearly three years. The continued expansion in the manufacturing sector likely fed through to the external sector, with merchandise exports growing at a solid clip in the first two months of the year. Meanwhile, retail sales gathered steam in February, underpinned by a rock-solid labor market, while tourist arrivals recorded double-digit growth in February which, in turn, likely propped up services exports and consumer spending.

Vietnam Economic Growth

While growth is expected to cool from 2018’s robust showing, the economy should remain on solid footing in 2019. Industrial output and investment are expected to stay robust as Vietnam continues to solidify its position as a global manufacturing hub. Likewise, exports and FDI inflows will likely be resilient despite headwinds from slower global growth and U.S.-China trade tensions. Met the why particular panelists project the economy expanding 6.6% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 6.4% in 2020.

Vietnam Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)89.890.791.792.793.6
GDP per capita (USD)1,8932,0292,0332,1112,355
GDP (USD bn)170184186196221
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.46.06.76.26.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.26.19.37.3-  
Investment (annual variation in %)5.39.39.49.9-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.97.611.07.39.4
Unemployment Rate3.63.43.43.2-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.6-6.3-6.3-5.6-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)51.855.057.059.8-  
Money (annual variation in %)18.917.716.218.4-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)6.01.80.64.72.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.64.10.62.73.5
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)5.33.3-0.3-0.52.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)7.006.506.506.506.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)21,09521,38822,48522,77122,711
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)21,02921,19821,92922,37022,716
Current Account (% of GDP)4.65.10.34.62.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)7.79.40.69.06.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)0.40.8-4.12.12.9
Exports (USD billion)133150162177215
Imports (USD billion)133149166174212
Exports (annual variation in %)16.512.67.99.021.6
Imports (annual variation in %)18.212.311.35.021.4
International Reserves (USD)25.934.228.336.5-  
External Debt (% of GDP)38.539.341.744.5-  

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Vietnam Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield4.81-0.13 %Mar 20
Exchange Rate23,2110.01 %Mar 20
Stock Market1,0020.15 %Mar 20

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