Venezuela Economic Outlook
September 12, 2018The economy remains stuck in a deep depression. Despite oil prices hovering at over three-year highs in recent months, oil production continues to fall, plunging by over a third in July in annual terms according to OPEC secondary data. Moreover, although the number of oil rigs—a leading indicator of oil output—ticked up in the same month, it remains close to historical lows. This suggests a continuation of declining production, and with it, diminishing vital oil revenues. On a somewhat positive note, on 20 August, the state-owned oil firm PDVSA reached a payment agreement with ConocoPhillips to settle the USD 2 billion arbitration it was awarded back in April. If PDVSA meets the agreed payment schedule, it could enable the firm to regain control of its Caribbean oil facilities and potentially recoup some of its export losses, as the U.S. company had already moved to seize these assets to enforce its claim. Meanwhile, a series of economic measures started to come into effect that same day with President Nicolás Maduro’s latest attempt to contain hyperinflation and stabilize the freefalling currency. Although it includes moves in the right direction, the reform package is unlikely to achieve its objectives according to analysts.
Venezuela Economic GrowthThe outlook remains bleak. The economy will continue to be beleaguered by spiraling inflation, collapsing oil output and exchange rate misalignments. Upcoming hefty external debt repayments and the government’s constrained ability to access financing due to international financial sanctions further compound the country’s woes. Given the severity of the crisis, conditions may emerge for a political transition, a scenario that some of our panelists have already begun to factor into their forecasts. Met the why particular panelists see the economy contracting 12.1% in 2018, which is down 0.8 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2019, the panel sees GDP falling 4.2%.
Venezuela Economy Data
5 years of Venezuela economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||5.50||0.0 %||Aug 19|
|Exchange Rate||248,832||0.0 %||Aug 17|
|Stock Market||304,806||2.04 %||Sep 20|
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Venezuela Economic News
September 11, 2018
On 20 August, a series of far-reaching economic reforms came into effect as President Nicolás Maduro once again strived to tackle spiraling inflation, stabilize the freefalling currency and overcome the deep economic crisis gripping the country.
July 9, 2018
At the twentieth Central Bank Dicom auction held on 28 June, the bolivar sold at 134,262.5 VEF per EUR (approximately 115,000 VEF per USD), weakening 20.1% from the 111,734.4 VEF per EUR (approximately 96,000 VEF per USD) rate in the previous auction held on 25 June.
July 5, 2018
The average price of Venezuela’s mix of crude oil came in at USD 64.5 per barrel (pb) in June, falling 1.2% from May’s average of USD 65.2 pb.
June 11, 2018
At the seventeenth Central Bank Dicom auction held on 8 June, the bolivar sold at 94,112 VEF per EUR (80,000 VEF per USD), weakening 0.8% from the 93,392 VEF per EUR (80,000 VEF per USD) rate in the previous auction held on 1 June.
June 8, 2018
The average price of Venezuela’s mix of crude oil reached USD 65.2 per barrel (pb) in May, the highest level in over three years.