Venezuela Economic Outlook
July 11, 2018Venezuela is sliding deeper into an economic and humanitarian crisis. Oil production, the country’s economic lifeline, dwindled to a new multi-year low in May on the back of the mismanagement of oil fields and insufficient investment. In addition, the state oil firm PDVSA’s exporting capacity has been hindered by ConocoPhillips’ seizing of some of the company’s Caribbean assets, and PDVSA has had difficulties fulfilling its contracts. Moreover, the bolivar continued to plunge in both the official and parallel markets in June, and incoming evidence points to sustained hyperinflation in the economy. Against a dire economic backdrop, President Nicolás Maduro reshuffled his cabinet in June, installing former Vice President Tareck El Aissami as industry and production minister. In a rare piece of good news, the government announced in early July that the China Development Bank has agreed to invest around USD 250 million in the battered energy sector.
Venezuela Economic GrowthCollapsing oil production, exchange rate misalignments and skyrocketing inflation are expected to keep Venezuela stuck in a deep economic crisis. Deep-seated reforms are needed to correct the economy’s current trajectory; however, the government has so far shown little appetite to change course on policy. Met the why particular panelists project GDP will contract for a fifth consecutive year in 2018, dropping an astounding 11.2%. It is far from certain that authorities will be able to hold on to power given the severity of the crisis, and some of our panelists have begun factoring in a potential political transition. In 2019, the panel sees GDP falling 3.3%.
Venezuela Economy Data
5 years of Venezuela economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||5.50||0.0 %||Aug 19|
|Exchange Rate||120,000||0.0 %||Jul 13|
|Stock Market||112,081||2.04 %||Jul 13|
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Venezuela Economic News
July 9, 2018
At the twentieth Central Bank Dicom auction held on 28 June, the bolivar sold at 134,262.5 VEF per EUR (approximately 115,000 VEF per USD), weakening 20.1% from the 111,734.4 VEF per EUR (approximately 96,000 VEF per USD) rate in the previous auction held on 25 June.
July 5, 2018
The average price of Venezuela’s mix of crude oil came in at USD 64.5 per barrel (pb) in June, falling 1.2% from May’s average of USD 65.2 pb.
June 11, 2018
At the seventeenth Central Bank Dicom auction held on 8 June, the bolivar sold at 94,112 VEF per EUR (80,000 VEF per USD), weakening 0.8% from the 93,392 VEF per EUR (80,000 VEF per USD) rate in the previous auction held on 1 June.
June 8, 2018
The average price of Venezuela’s mix of crude oil reached USD 65.2 per barrel (pb) in May, the highest level in over three years.
May 15, 2018
The average price of Venezuela’s mix of crude oil reached USD 64.2 per barrel (pb) in April, the highest level in over three years.