Venezuela Economic Outlook
May 14, 2019The political and economic crisis deepened over the past month. On 30 April, opposition leader Juan Guaidó called for a military uprising to remove President Nicolás Maduro from office. The attempt, however, failed as it did not attract meaningful military support, raising uncertainty over the opposition's future going forward. Meanwhile, oil production took another nosedive in March as widespread power outages and crippling U.S. sanctions took their toll. Production fell a staggering 289,000 barrels per day (bdp) from February, which amounts to an over 36% plunge since January, according to OPEC data. Moreover, U.S. and Canadian authorities announced new sanctions against the Venezuelan government in April, most notably targeting the country’s Central Bank and several high-ranking officials, including the foreign minister. In other news, on 7 May, the opposition-controlled National Assembly authorized a USD 71 million interest payment on PDVSA’s 2020 bond. The failure to pay could have prompted creditors to try to seize a sizeable chunk of shares in its U.S. refining unit Citgo, the country’s most valuable overseas asset.
Venezuela Economic GrowthThe outlook remains bleak. Uncertainty remains elevated over what happens next in the political standoff between President Maduro and Juan Guaidó, while successive rounds of sanctions aimed at choking off the government’s access to hard currency worsens the already-dire state of the economy, which has been stuck in deep depression for years. The probability of a political transition remains high, a scenario which some of our panelists have factored into their forecasts. Met the why particular panelists see the economy contracting 22.3% in 2019, which is down 7.8 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2020, the panel sees GDP falling 2.2%.
Venezuela Economy Data
5 years of Venezuela economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||5.50||0.0 %||Aug 19|
|Exchange Rate||248,832||0.0 %||Aug 17|
|Stock Market||16,148||2.04 %||May 13|
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Venezuela Economic News
May 14, 2019
The Venezuelan bolívar soberano was sharply devalued, yet again, by the Central Bank (Banco Central de Venezuela, BCV) on 22 April.
February 12, 2019
On 28 January, the Trump administration significantly increased the economic pressure on President Nicolás Maduro’s government by announcing sweeping sanctions against PDVSA, the state-owned oil firm.
September 11, 2018
On 20 August, a series of far-reaching economic reforms came into effect as President Nicolás Maduro once again strived to tackle spiraling inflation, stabilize the freefalling currency and overcome the deep economic crisis gripping the country.
July 9, 2018
At the twentieth Central Bank Dicom auction held on 28 June, the bolivar sold at 134,262.5 VEF per EUR (approximately 115,000 VEF per USD), weakening 20.1% from the 111,734.4 VEF per EUR (approximately 96,000 VEF per USD) rate in the previous auction held on 25 June.
July 5, 2018
The average price of Venezuela’s mix of crude oil came in at USD 64.5 per barrel (pb) in June, falling 1.2% from May’s average of USD 65.2 pb.