Venezuela Economic Outlook
November 6, 2018The economy remains stuck in a deep recession. In September, although oil prices climbed to near four-year highs, oil production—which accounts for over 90% of export revenues—continued to plunge, with output down by over a third in year-on-year terms and at its lowest levels since the 1911s. Moreover, the number of oil rigs, an indicator of future output, remained at historic lows—pointing to further contraction of the all-important industry. Furthermore, on 1 November, the Trump administration unveiled fresh new sanctions in a bid to disrupt Venezuela’s gold exports, ramping up the economic pressure on the Maduro government. Meanwhile, despite the deep financial stress it is under, the state-run oil company PDVSA paid holders of the 2020 bond USD 950 million in interest and principal due 27 October, allowing it to retain control of its U.S. refining unit CITGO which had been pledged as collateral. That same week, PDVSA also made an initial USD 345 million installment in cash and commodities to ConocoPhillips as part of a payment deal agreed in August following a USD 2.0 billion arbitration case awarded to the U.S. oil producer earlier in the year. It is expected that PDVSA will make good on the remaining USD 155 million of the first payment by year-end.
Venezuela Economic GrowthThe outlook remains bleak, with the economy expected to continue to be battered by rampant hyperinflation, collapsing oil production and exchange rate misalignments. The difficulty in accessing foreign financing and processing international payments due to financial sanctions only compound the country’s woes. Given the severity of the crisis, conditions may emerge for a political transition, a scenario that some of our panelists have begun to factor into their forecasts. Met the why particular panelists see the economy contracting 7.6% in 2019, which is down 0.9 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2020, the panel sees GDP falling 1.2%.
Venezuela Economy Data
5 years of Venezuela economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||5.50||0.0 %||Aug 19|
|Exchange Rate||248,832||0.0 %||Aug 17|
|Stock Market||577||2.04 %||Nov 13|
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Venezuela Economic News
September 11, 2018
On 20 August, a series of far-reaching economic reforms came into effect as President Nicolás Maduro once again strived to tackle spiraling inflation, stabilize the freefalling currency and overcome the deep economic crisis gripping the country.
July 9, 2018
At the twentieth Central Bank Dicom auction held on 28 June, the bolivar sold at 134,262.5 VEF per EUR (approximately 115,000 VEF per USD), weakening 20.1% from the 111,734.4 VEF per EUR (approximately 96,000 VEF per USD) rate in the previous auction held on 25 June.
July 5, 2018
The average price of Venezuela’s mix of crude oil came in at USD 64.5 per barrel (pb) in June, falling 1.2% from May’s average of USD 65.2 pb.
June 11, 2018
At the seventeenth Central Bank Dicom auction held on 8 June, the bolivar sold at 94,112 VEF per EUR (80,000 VEF per USD), weakening 0.8% from the 93,392 VEF per EUR (80,000 VEF per USD) rate in the previous auction held on 1 June.
June 8, 2018
The average price of Venezuela’s mix of crude oil reached USD 65.2 per barrel (pb) in May, the highest level in over three years.