Uzbekistan Economic Forecast

Uzbekistan Economic Outlook

May 7, 2019

According to preliminary data, the economy expanded at a robust pace in the first quarter of the year, with annual growth clocking in at 5.3%. The industrial sector continued to fuel the overall expansion, largely thanks to booming manufacturing production, while the services and construction sectors both strengthened in Q1. Moreover, external sector dynamics were upbeat in the quarter: Merchandise exports surged, chiefly on the back of soaring demand for gold and energy, particularly from China, Kazakhstan and Turkey. In the political arena, ongoing economic reforms seem to paying dividends as reflected by foreign investment activity nearly doubling in Q1.

Uzbekistan Economic Growth

Growth is expected to remain broadly steady this year. Robust investment activity and sturdy household consumption—thanks to ongoing economic reforms and an improving business environment—should support growth. However, a volatile external environment and booming domestic credit growth, which risks spurring inflation, threaten the outlook. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to grow 5.0% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 5.5% in 2020.

Uzbekistan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)30.230.831.331.832.1
GDP per capita (USD)1,9202,0632,1302,1161,514
GDP per capita (EUR)1,4771,5071,9201,9041,322
GDP (USD bn)58.163.566.767.148.6
GDP (EUR bn)44.746.360.160.642.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)8.08.07.97.85.3
Consumption (annual variation in %)9.711.911.67.0-  
Investment (annual variation in %)5.27.40.816.47.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.30.20.10.10.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)7.58.89.711.2-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)11.79.18.58.012.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)12.0011.009.009.0014.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2,2022,4222,8113,2188,120
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,0922,3082,5702,9655,123
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)3,0342,9313,0523,3949,751
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)2,7803,0642,8523,2795,869
Current Account (% of GDP)2.81.7-0.51.42.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)1.61.1-0.40.91.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-5.4-6.9-4.3-2.4-  
Exports (USD billion)7.96.96.57.7-  
Imports (USD billion)13.313.811.811.1-  
Exports (annual variation in %)35.1-13.1-4.818.5-  
Imports (annual variation in %)16.73.8-21.5-6.6-  
International Reserves (EUR)-  -  -  -  -  
International Reserves (USD)-  -  -  -  -  
External Debt (% of GDP)18.421.022.324.3-  

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Uzbekistan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate8,4580.0 %May 13

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