Uzbekistan Economic Forecast

Uzbekistan Economic Outlook

July 3, 2018

Available indicators suggest the economy continued growing at a solid pace in Q2 as the external sector again buoyed activity. Nominal exports jumped over a quarter in the January¬–May period on the back of a surge in external demand for Uzbek energy and food products. Furthermore, nominal industrial production rose by double digits in the same period, buttressed by strong foreign demand for natural gas, reflected in a marked increase in mining and quarrying output. Meanwhile, at the end of June, the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank approved their respective USD 500 million and USD 300 million development policy financing loans for Uzbekistan, each aimed at supporting economic reforms in the country.

Uzbekistan Economic Growth

Robust external demand, which should have a positive knock-on effect on industrial production, and healthy fixed investment are expected to lead growth this year. Nevertheless, there is uncertainty over the medium term, largely owning to possible changes to the highly regulated economy and the country’s strong sensitivity to commodity price fluctuations. Our panelists expect GDP to grow 5.6% in 2018, which unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 5.7% in 2019.

Uzbekistan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)30.230.831.331.832.1
GDP per capita (USD)1,9202,0632,1302,1161,514
GDP per capita (EUR)1,4771,5071,9201,9041,322
GDP (USD bn)58.163.566.767.148.6
GDP (EUR bn)44.746.360.160.642.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)8.08.07.97.85.3
Consumption (annual variation in %)9.711.911.67.0-  
Investment (annual variation in %)5.27.40.816.47.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.30.20.10.10.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)7.58.89.711.2-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)11.79.18.58.012.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)12.0011.009.009.0014.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2,2022,4222,8113,2188,120
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,0922,3082,5702,9655,123
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)3,0342,9313,0523,3949,751
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)2,7803,0642,8523,2795,869
Current Account (% of GDP)2.81.7-0.51.42.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)1.61.1-0.40.91.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-5.4-6.9-4.3-2.4-  
Exports (USD billion)7.96.96.57.7-  
Imports (USD billion)13.313.811.811.1-  
Exports (annual variation in %)35.1-13.1-4.818.5-  
Imports (annual variation in %)16.73.8-21.5-6.6-  
External Debt (% of GDP)18.421.022.324.3-  

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Uzbekistan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate7,7880.0 %Jul 17

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