Uzbekistan Economic Forecast

Uzbekistan Economic Outlook

September 4, 2018

Growth lost some steam in the first half of this year, according to preliminary data released by the State Committee of Statistics. GDP expanded 4.9% in H1 on the back of a buoyant services sector, led by stellar financial services growth, and a marked pick up in manufacturing output which spearheaded a solid industrial sector performance in the period. Meanwhile, exports soared in the first half of the year, largely on the heels of booming external demand for Uzbek oil and gas. On the domestic demand front, higher wages likely bolstered private consumption in H1, while fixed investment surged on elevated business investment in the manufacturing and construction sectors.

Uzbekistan Economic Growth

Robust external demand and a favorable global commodity price outlook should prop up industrial activity in the remainder of the year, driving overall growth. In addition, although domestic demand will likely be undermined by high inflation, solid fixed investment growth should provide some support. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP growth of 5.6% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 5.6% again in 2019.

Uzbekistan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)30.230.831.331.832.1
GDP per capita (USD)1,9202,0632,1302,1161,514
GDP per capita (EUR)1,4771,5071,9201,9041,322
GDP (USD bn)58.163.566.767.148.6
GDP (EUR bn)44.746.360.160.642.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)8.08.07.97.85.3
Consumption (annual variation in %)9.711.911.67.0-  
Investment (annual variation in %)5.27.40.816.47.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.30.20.10.10.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)7.58.89.711.2-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)11.79.18.58.012.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)12.0011.009.009.0014.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2,2022,4222,8113,2188,120
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,0922,3082,5702,9655,123
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)3,0342,9313,0523,3949,751
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)2,7803,0642,8523,2795,869
Current Account (% of GDP)2.81.7-0.51.42.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)1.61.1-0.40.91.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-5.4-6.9-4.3-2.4-  
Exports (USD billion)7.96.96.57.7-  
Imports (USD billion)13.313.811.811.1-  
Exports (annual variation in %)35.1-13.1-4.818.5-  
Imports (annual variation in %)16.73.8-21.5-6.6-  
External Debt (% of GDP)18.421.022.324.3-  

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Uzbekistan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate8,0790.0 %Sep 24

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