Uzbekistan Economic Forecast

Uzbekistan Economic Outlook

May 8, 2018

Activity continued to expand at a healthy pace in the first quarter, according to available indicators and a preliminary estimate of nominal GDP released by the Statistical Office. Expansion was buoyed by industrial output, which saw growth across sectors. Mining and quarrying output recorded a notable jump, while the related leap in natural gas and petroleum exports boosted the external sector. Further buttressing growth was a significant upsurge in investment activity, which saw fixed capital outlays increase nearly a third from a year ago amid booming construction sector activity. Meanwhile, retail trade plummeted to a low single-digit expansion in Q1, signaling that household spending got off to a slow start in 2018.

Uzbekistan Economic Growth

The economy is expected to speed up this year, driven by healthy fixed investment growth and robust external demand, which should keep industrial production growth elevated in 2018. Nevertheless, prevailing inflationary pressures and volatile commodity prices will continue to generate uncertainty in the medium term. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to grow 5.9% in 2018, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 6.0% in 2019.

Uzbekistan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)30.230.631.031.331.7
GDP per capita (USD)1,8902,0602,1532,145-  
GDP per capita (EUR)1,4541,5041,9111,939-  
GDP (USD bn)57.263.066.767.2-  
GDP (EUR bn)44.046.060.160.8-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)8.08.18.17.8-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)11.511.56.5-  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)6.93.56.8-  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.30.20.10.1-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)7.78.89.4-  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)11.79.18.58.0-  
Policy Interest Rate (%)12.0011.009.009.00-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2,2022,4222,8113,218-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,0922,3082,5702,965-  
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)3,0342,9313,0523,394-  
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)2,7803,0642,8523,279-  
Current Account (% of GDP)2.90.70.1-  -  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)1.60.50.1-  -  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-6.2-7.9-5.3-  -  
Exports (USD billion)7.96.96.5-  -  
Imports (USD billion)14.014.711.8-  -  
Exports (annual variation in %)32.7-12.8-4.8-  -  
Imports (annual variation in %)17.05.1-19.8-  -  
International Reserves (EUR)-  -  -  -  -  
International Reserves (USD)-  -  -  -  -  
External Debt (% of GDP)18.721.122.3-  -  

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Uzbekistan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate8,0260.0 %May 21
Exchange Rate8,0260.0 %May 21

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