Uzbekistan Economic Forecast

Uzbekistan Economic Outlook

November 27, 2018

The economy appears to have continued expanding at a healthy clip in January–October, with strong growth in retail sales and a solid expansion in industrial output—bolstered by soaring mining and quarrying output, particularly of natural gas—propelling growth. Retail trade also shifted into a slightly higher gear in January–October compared to January–September, driven by booming sales among large businesses. In addition, construction activity remained upbeat in the same period amid healthy demand for real estate from both businesses and households. On a less positive note, the external sector continued to disappoint in January–October, in large part due to subdued exports of precious metals.

Uzbekistan Economic Growth

Growth is expected to remain sturdy next year on the back of sustained government spending, robust capital investment and a growing inflow of remittances from Russia. Met the why particular panelists see the economy expanding 5.0% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 5.5% in 2020.

Uzbekistan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)30.230.831.331.832.1
GDP per capita (USD)1,9202,0632,1302,1161,514
GDP per capita (EUR)1,4771,5071,9201,9041,322
GDP (USD bn)58.163.566.767.148.6
GDP (EUR bn)44.746.360.160.642.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)8.08.07.97.85.3
Consumption (annual variation in %)9.711.911.67.0-  
Investment (annual variation in %)5.27.40.816.47.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.30.20.10.10.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)7.58.89.711.2-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)11.79.18.58.012.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)12.0011.009.009.0014.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2,2022,4222,8113,2188,120
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,0922,3082,5702,9655,123
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)3,0342,9313,0523,3949,751
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)2,7803,0642,8523,2795,869
Current Account (% of GDP)2.81.7-0.51.42.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)1.61.1-0.40.91.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-5.4-6.9-4.3-2.4-  
Exports (USD billion)7.96.96.57.7-  
Imports (USD billion)13.313.811.811.1-  
Exports (annual variation in %)35.1-13.1-4.818.5-  
Imports (annual variation in %)16.73.8-21.5-6.6-  
External Debt (% of GDP)18.421.022.324.3-  

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Uzbekistan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate8,3130.0 %Dec 11

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