Uruguay Economic Outlook
July 11, 2018The economy shifted into a slightly higher gear at the outset of the year, but growth nevertheless remained subdued. Q1’s reading was driven by strong, albeit decelerating, private consumption, which cooled in Q1 against the backdrop of intensifying inflationary pressures and higher unemployment. Meanwhile, fixed investment continued to contract in Q1, led by lower private investment in the mining sector, yet the reading improved considerably from Q4, signaling a possible rebound in investment activity in the coming quarters. On the external front, exports grew at a solid pace in annual terms in Q1 on the back of robust external demand, offsetting an increase in imports, as higher inflation and a weaker peso likely weighed down on the consumer demand.
Uruguay Economic GrowthGrowth is seen gaining steam in the coming quarters thanks to solid domestic demand, on the back of a rebound in fixed investment and sustained consumption growth. The manufacturing sector will continue to benefit from the reopening of the state-owned oil refinery, nevertheless, the activity gains are at risk of being offset by shrinking agricultural output due to weather-related factors. The economy remains somewhat vulnerable to external shocks, in particularly relating to an ongoing economic turmoil in Argentina. Our panelists expect GDP to expand 2.7% in 2018, which is 0.2 percentage points down from last month’s forecast, and 2.8% in 2019.
Uruguay Economy Data
5 years of Uruguay economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||31.30||0.24 %||Jul 17|
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Uruguay Economic News
July 5, 2018
Consumer prices rose 1.0% from the previous month in June, edging up from May’s 0.8% increase and marking the highest reading in 17 months.
June 18, 2018
The economy kicked off the year on stronger footing, with year-on-year growth accelerating from the previous quarter’s 2.0% to 2.2% in the first quarter of 2018, according to data released by the Central Bank on 18 June.
June 11, 2018
Industrial production growth again accelerated in April, picking up pace from the previous month’s 12.3% year-on-year increase to a 22.7% surge.
June 5, 2018
Consumer prices rose 0.8% from the previous month in May, well above April’s 0.1% increase and marking the strongest rise since February.
May 14, 2018
Industrial production growth picked up pace in March, accelerating from the previous month’s 9.2% year-on-year increase to a 12.3% surge.