Uruguay Economic Outlook
December 4, 2018Available data for the second half of the year has been downbeat and suggests that economic turmoil in neighboring Argentina has taken its toll on growth. On the heels of an otherwise solid first-half outturn, deteriorating external demand—from Argentina and Brazil, in particular—is expected to have hammered exports in the third quarter, compounding low agricultural output due to the drought-stricken harvest. In turn, household spending is likely to have landed on its back foot; unemployment spiked in the quarter and elevated inflation continued to weigh on consumers. Moreover, industrial metrics fared poorly through the quarter and hint that the second quarter’s rebound in fixed investment might have been a one-off. In October, Fitch Ratings revised the outlook on its investment-grade credit rating to negative, putting the government on notice over its rising public-sector debt. Analysts were quick to point out that next year’s budget will provide little remedy.
Uruguay Economic GrowthDark clouds are on the horizon; the economy faces considerable downside risks next year amid the ongoing tumult in Argentina and, more broadly, a feared pullback in global trade. Meanwhile, domestic demand should remain upbeat although any rebound in fixed investment is expected to be modest. Fiscal slippage remains a key concern heading into next year’s vote and a consequent credit-rating downgrade, in turn, would only exacerbate the government’s fiscal woes. Met the why particular analysts see growth at 1.9% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.6% in 2020.
Uruguay Economy Data
5 years of Uruguay economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||32.16||0.24 %||Dec 11|
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Uruguay Economic News
November 12, 2018
Industrial production accelerated on an annual basis in September, growing 16.1% when accounting for refinery output (August: +15.5% year-on-year).
November 5, 2018
Consumer prices increased 0.2% from a month earlier in October, a few notches slower than September’s 0.5% month-on-month rise.
October 3, 2018
Consumer prices increased 0.5% from a month earlier in September, a couple notches slower than August’s 0.7% month-on-month rise.
September 17, 2018
Annual growth ticked up to 2.5% in the second quarter, above the first quarter’s 2.2% expansion but just below analysts’ expectations.
September 11, 2018
Factoring in Uruguay’s major-player La Teja oil refinery, industrial output jumped 20.5% annually in July, up from June’s already-upbeat 17.1% expansion.