Uruguay Economic Outlook
September 12, 2018In the run-up to the release of this month’s second-quarter national accounts report, growth is expected to have picked up the pace from the unexpectedly strong outturn at the beginning of the year. Fixed investment, which improved markedly in the first quarter, looks set to have finally rebounded in the second quarter amid tighter industrial capacity and the government’s ambitious spending plans. Household spending, on the other hand, appears to have come up short; higher inflation and tight lending conditions likely blunted gains from the steady downtick in unemployment. Meanwhile, exports have plummeted in recent months; with both the Argentine peso and the Brazilian real in freefall, Uruguay’s wares have become increasingly expensive for its key trading partners. In early September, in an effort to stave off the deepening economic crisis in neighboring Argentina, the government introduced a modest set of controls intended to shield the external sector from spillover effects of the turmoil.
Uruguay Economic GrowthDomestic demand is expected to recover this year on the anticipated rebound in fixed investment, which should get a boost from the government’s ambitious spending plans, and robust private consumption. That said, external risks will continue to put pressure on exports as Argentina and Brazil flounder. Fiscal slippage remains a substantial risk heading into next year’s vote, although new revenue could see the deficit narrow over the medium term. Met the why particular panelists expect growth of 2.5% in 2018, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.6% in 2019.
Uruguay Economy Data
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|Exchange Rate||32.80||0.24 %||Sep 24|
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Uruguay Economic News
August 3, 2018
Consumer prices rose 0.6% from the previous month in July, easing from June’s 1.0% increase.
July 13, 2018
At its 13 July monetary policy committee meeting, the Central Bank of Uruguay left its inflation target range for the next 24 months unchanged at 3.0%–7.0%.
July 12, 2018
Industrial production growth continued to accelerate in May, coming in at 23.1% year-on-year, up from April’s 22.7%.
July 5, 2018
Consumer prices rose 1.0% from the previous month in June, edging up from May’s 0.8% increase and marking the highest reading in 17 months.
June 18, 2018
The economy kicked off the year on stronger footing, with year-on-year growth accelerating from the previous quarter’s 2.0% to 2.2% in the first quarter of 2018, according to data released by the Central Bank on 18 June.