Uruguay Economic Forecast

Uruguay Economic Outlook

January 15, 2019

A comprehensive GDP release confirmed that economic turmoil in Argentina took a bite out of growth in the third quarter of 2018. Against the backdrop of plummeting exports due to faltering Argentine demand and the poor soybean harvest, the third-quarter expansion was the weakest so far last year. Meanwhile, domestic demand metrics were more robust. An improvement in household consumption was somewhat offset by a dip in fixed investment as investors grew more risk averse amid sustained economic uncertainty in the region. Available data for the fourth quarter paints a mixed picture. Inflationary pressures moderated in Q4 and, coupled with a more stable peso and lower unemployment, likely propped up private consumption growth. However, on the external front, exports continued to contract in October and November, with tourism revenue likely down markedly in Q4 due to a strong appreciation of the Uruguayan peso against its Argentine counterpart in real terms.

Uruguay Economic Growth

Growth should remain broadly stable this year amid ongoing global trade uncertainties and as adverse economic conditions across the border weigh on the external sector. Sustained private consumption and robust fixed investment growth should spearhead overall growth in 2019. The expected rebound in agricultural output from last year’s drought will also lend further support to growth. Met the why particular analysts see growth at 1.8% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.5% in 2020.

Uruguay Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)3.43.53.53.53.5
GDP per capita (USD)16,86016,79215,57514,94317,177
GDP (USD bn)57.557.253.352.460.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.63.20.41.52.7
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.53.0-0.50.14.4
Investment (annual variation in %)3.82.4-9.2-1.6-15.5
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)4.11.13.10.3-11.1
Unemployment Rate6.56.67.57.97.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.3-3.5-3.6-3.9-3.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)57.558.658.963.664.5
Money (annual variation in %)15.03.75.68.415.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)8.58.39.48.16.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.68.98.79.66.2
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)11.66.6-1.95.4-  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)7.357.176.946.585.56
Exchange Rate (vs USD)21.1324.3729.9129.3328.83
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)20.4123.2127.3130.1428.66
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.4-3.1-0.80.81.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.0-1.8-0.40.40.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)1.81.61.20.60.0
Exports (USD billion)9.19.17.77.07.9
Imports (USD billion)11.911.88.97.67.9
Exports (annual variation in %)4.10.7-15.9-8.912.7
Imports (annual variation in %)-1.2-1.2-17.4-14.03.5
International Reserves (USD)16.317.815.613.416.0
External Debt (% of GDP)65.070.480.276.664.5

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Uruguay Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate32.550.24 %Jan 30

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