Uruguay Economic Forecast

Uruguay Economic Outlook

May 15, 2018

The economy sent mixed signals in the first quarter, after recording the fastest expansion in three years in 2017. Unemployment jumped to an over ten-year high in February before easing slightly in March; it is expected to have weighed on household spending in the quarter. On the other hand, export growth picked up pace considerably in March, likely buttressing industrial production, which expanded at a three-year high at the end of Q1. Meanwhile, debate over the motion to approve the free trade agreement signed with Chile in 2016 was further postponed by parliament on 7 May, prolonging nearly two years of gridlock and potentially weighing on investor confidence and the country’s access to foreign markets.

Uruguay Economic Growth

Industrial production, supported by the buoyant external sector, and an expected rebound in investment activity should buttress economic growth this year. Amid sustained domestic financial stability, greater uncertainty to the country’s growth outlook stems from external factors. The regional economic recovery is still fragile, and the outcome of several important free trade negotiations, including one with the EU, remains cloudy. Our panelists expect GDP to expand 3.1% in 2018, which is unchanged from the last month’s forecast, and again 3.1% in 2019.

Uruguay Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)3.43.43.53.53.4
GDP per capita (USD)17,09916,74515,57514,943-  
GDP (USD bn)58.057.054.052.0-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.63.20.41.5-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.53.0-0.50.7-  
Investment (annual variation in %)3.82.4-9.20.9-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)4.11.13.10.4-  
Unemployment Rate6.56.67.57.9-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.3-3.5-3.6-3.9-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)60.261.464.360.9-  
Money (annual variation in %)15.03.75.68.4-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)8.58.39.48.1-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.68.98.79.6-  
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)6.311.6-1.9-  -  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)7.357.176.946.58-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)21.1324.3729.9129.33-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)20.4123.2127.3130.14-  
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.9-4.5-2.1-0.1-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.9-2.6-1.10.0-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-1.4-0.9-0.20.4-  
Exports (USD billion)11.311.39.18.4-  
Imports (USD billion)11.611.39.38.0-  
Exports (annual variation in %)3.40.8-12.1-7.7-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-5.4-3.1-17.0-13.9-  
International Reserves (USD)16.317.815.613.4-  
External Debt (% of GDP)45.749.352.750.3-  

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Uruguay Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate31.410.24 %May 21

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