Uruguay Economic Outlook
February 12, 2019Available data suggests the economy likely lost steam again in the fourth quarter. This came on the heels of a soft third-quarter outturn, against the backdrop of tumbling exports due to faltering Argentine demand and the poor soybean harvest. External sector metrics remained downbeat in Q4 as a strong real term appreciation of the Uruguayan peso against its Argentine counterpart led to a drop in tourists and thus tourism revenue, while merchandise exports contracted for a second consecutive quarter. Furthermore, industrial production ran out of steam in the quarter, as output contracted heavily in December amid lower output of food and chemical products. On a more positive note, domestic demand dynamics appeared more upbeat in Q4: Tightening labor market conditions, a more stable Uruguayan peso against the greenback and moderating inflationary pressures boded well for private consumption growth.
Uruguay Economic GrowthGrowth is expected to lose steam again this year as adverse economic conditions across the border weigh on the external sector. Nevertheless, the deceleration is set to be only marginal. The overall expansion should be driven by sturdy private consumption and fixed investment growth. The expected rebound in agricultural output from last year’s drought is also expected to bolster growth. Met the why particular analysts see growth at 1.7% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.4% in 2020.
Uruguay Economy Data
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|Exchange Rate||32.61||0.24 %||Feb 14|
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Uruguay Economic News
February 11, 2019
Industrial production contracted 8.8% on an annual basis in December, compared to a modest 1.7% increase recorded in November.
February 5, 2019
Consumer prices rose 2.2% from a month earlier in January, compared to December’s 0.4% month-on-month drop and marking the highest reading in 12 months.
January 11, 2019
Industrial production decelerated on an annual basis in November, increasing 1.7% when accounting for refinery output, down markedly from a 19.5% jump recorded in October.
January 4, 2019
Consumer prices fell 0.4% from a month earlier in December, swinging from November’s 0.4% month-on-month rise.
December 27, 2018
At its 27 December monetary policy meeting, the Central Bank of Uruguay set its target for the growth rate of the M1+ money supply for the first quarter of 2019 to 6.0%–8.0%, down from the previous quarter’s 7.0%–9.0% target.