Uruguay Economic Forecast

Uruguay Economic Outlook

February 12, 2019

Available data suggests the economy likely lost steam again in the fourth quarter. This came on the heels of a soft third-quarter outturn, against the backdrop of tumbling exports due to faltering Argentine demand and the poor soybean harvest. External sector metrics remained downbeat in Q4 as a strong real term appreciation of the Uruguayan peso against its Argentine counterpart led to a drop in tourists and thus tourism revenue, while merchandise exports contracted for a second consecutive quarter. Furthermore, industrial production ran out of steam in the quarter, as output contracted heavily in December amid lower output of food and chemical products. On a more positive note, domestic demand dynamics appeared more upbeat in Q4: Tightening labor market conditions, a more stable Uruguayan peso against the greenback and moderating inflationary pressures boded well for private consumption growth.

Uruguay Economic Growth

Growth is expected to lose steam again this year as adverse economic conditions across the border weigh on the external sector. Nevertheless, the deceleration is set to be only marginal. The overall expansion should be driven by sturdy private consumption and fixed investment growth. The expected rebound in agricultural output from last year’s drought is also expected to bolster growth. Met the why particular analysts see growth at 1.7% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.4% in 2020.

Uruguay Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)3.43.53.53.53.5
GDP per capita (USD)16,86016,79215,57514,94317,177
GDP (USD bn)57.557.253.352.460.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.63.20.41.52.7
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.53.0-0.50.14.4
Investment (annual variation in %)3.82.4-9.2-1.6-15.5
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)4.11.13.10.3-11.1
Unemployment Rate6.56.67.57.97.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.3-3.5-3.6-3.9-3.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)57.558.658.963.664.5
Money (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)8.58.39.48.16.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.68.98.79.66.2
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)7.357.176.946.585.56
Exchange Rate (vs USD)21.1324.3729.9129.3328.83
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)20.4123.2127.3130.1428.66
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.4-3.1-0.80.81.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.0-1.8-0.40.40.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)1.81.61.20.60.0
Exports (USD billion)9.19.17.77.07.9
Imports (USD billion)11.911.88.97.67.9
Exports (annual variation in %)4.10.7-15.9-8.912.7
Imports (annual variation in %)-1.2-1.2-17.4-14.03.5
International Reserves (USD)16.317.815.613.416.0
External Debt (% of GDP)65.070.480.276.664.5

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Uruguay Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate32.610.24 %Feb 14

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