UK Economic Forecast
January 29, 2019Recent data suggests the economy performed poorly in the fourth quarter. GDP growth in September–November was the slowest in six months on the back of a contraction in the manufacturing sector, while the services PMI was only just in expansionary territory in December amid soft new business. Moreover, retail sales were limp in the final quarter, which came against a backdrop of worsening consumer sentiment amid rising Brexit uncertainty. Weakness within the retail sector also came despite the robust labor market, which remains the economy’s bright spot: In September-November, employment surged and nominal wage growth topped 3%. On the political front, in mid-January the government’s Brexit withdrawal agreement was rejected by an overwhelming majority in parliament. The government has announced its intention to tweak the existing deal, although an end to the impasse does not appear imminent.
United Kingdom Economic GrowthPrivate investment and household consumption will likely remain subdued over the next few months due to the lack of clarity over Brexit. However, company stockpiling in preparation for a no-deal scenario could provide temporary support to GDP growth in Q1. Looking further ahead, everything hinges on the outcome of Brexit; leaving the EU with a deal, or remaining in the EU, would likely unleash pent-up investment and boost consumer sentiment, while leaving with no deal could cause a serious economic shock. Our panelists expect GDP growth of 1.4% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.5% in 2020.
United Kingdom Economy Data
5 years of United Kingdom economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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United Kingdom Facts
|Bond Yield||1.25||-3.04 %||Jan 30|
|Exchange Rate||1.31||-0.35 %||Jan 30|
|Stock Market||6,942||-0.26 %||Jan 30|
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United Kingdom Economic News
April 17, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.2% in March over the previous month, down from February’s 0.5% increase.
April 16, 2019
In the December-February period, the unemployment rate remained at a multi-decade low of 3.9%, while the employment rate stayed at a joint-record high.
April 11, 2019
Industrial production rose 0.6% in February over the prior month according to the Office for National Statistics, following January’s revised 0.7% increase (previously reported: +0.6% month-on-month).
April 11, 2019
According to monthly GDP data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), economic activity rose 0.2% in February over the prior month in seasonally-adjusted terms, down from January’s 0.5% increase but above market expectations of a flat reading.
United Kingdom: Services PMI tumbles into contractionary territory in March; manufacturing firms continue stockpiling
April 3, 2019
The IHS Markit/CIPS UK services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell from 51.3 in February to 48.9 in March, marking a multi-year low.