UK Economic Forecast
January 29, 2019Recent data suggests the economy performed poorly in the fourth quarter. GDP growth in September–November was the slowest in six months on the back of a contraction in the manufacturing sector, while the services PMI was only just in expansionary territory in December amid soft new business. Moreover, retail sales were limp in the final quarter, which came against a backdrop of worsening consumer sentiment amid rising Brexit uncertainty. Weakness within the retail sector also came despite the robust labor market, which remains the economy’s bright spot: In September-November, employment surged and nominal wage growth topped 3%. On the political front, in mid-January the government’s Brexit withdrawal agreement was rejected by an overwhelming majority in parliament. The government has announced its intention to tweak the existing deal, although an end to the impasse does not appear imminent.
United Kingdom Economic GrowthPrivate investment and household consumption will likely remain subdued over the next few months due to the lack of clarity over Brexit. However, company stockpiling in preparation for a no-deal scenario could provide temporary support to GDP growth in Q1. Looking further ahead, everything hinges on the outcome of Brexit; leaving the EU with a deal, or remaining in the EU, would likely unleash pent-up investment and boost consumer sentiment, while leaving with no deal could cause a serious economic shock. Our panelists expect GDP growth of 1.4% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.5% in 2020.
United Kingdom Economy Data
5 years of United Kingdom economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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United Kingdom Facts
|Bond Yield||1.17||-3.04 %||Feb 19|
|Exchange Rate||1.31||-0.35 %||Feb 19|
|Stock Market||7,179||-0.26 %||Feb 19|
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United Kingdom Economic News
February 19, 2019
In the October-December period the unemployment rate remained at 4.0%, the joint-lowest rate in over 11 years.
February 13, 2019
Consumer prices declined 0.8% in January over the previous month, contrasting December’s 0.2% rise.
February 12, 2019
Industrial production decreased 0.5% in December over the prior month according to the Office for National Statistics, down from November’s revised 0.3% fall (previously reported: -0.4% month-on-month).
February 11, 2019
Growth decelerated in the fourth quarter of 2018, according to preliminary data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 11 February.
February 7, 2019
At its meeting ending on 6 February, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England (BoE) voted unanimously to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 0.75%.