United Kingdom Economic Forecast

UK Economic Forecast

April 30, 2018

According to preliminary data, economic growth slowed to the weakest pace in over five years in the first quarter. The construction sector—which, like many sectors in the economy, was partly hit by adverse weather conditions—significantly weighed on growth in the quarter, posting the largest output contraction in nine years. The services sector provided some support, however, buttressed by the business services and finance sub-sector, as did industrial production, which benefitted from the Forties oil pipeline coming back online. Meanwhile, the labor market remained robust in the December–February period, with the unemployment rate ticking down. Moreover, in a positive development for financially-strained consumers, real wages rose, benefiting from the recent dip in inflation and higher nominal wages. On the political front, following the passage of a non-binding motion in the House of Commons on 26 April urging that the UK stays in a customs union with the EU, pressure is building on the prime minister to clearly outline the country’s future customs arrangement.

United Kingdom Economic Growth

This year, the economy is seen losing momentum as private consumption growth slows and fixed investment is depressed by Brexit uncertainty. However, relatively loose monetary policy and robust export growth thanks to the weaker pound should cushion the slowdown. Our panelists estimate GDP growth of 1.5% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 1.5% again in 2019.

United Kingdom Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)64.164.665.165.666.0
GDP per capita (USD)42,46646,48443,96311,093-  
GDP (USD bn)2,7223,0032,8622,629-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.93.12.21.8-  
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)1.93.52.11.5-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.62.22.42.8-  
Investment (annual variation in %)3.26.73.40.5-  
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)1.11.56.11.8-  
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)3.42.55.52.8-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-0.71.51.21.2-  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)1.04.14.34.9-  
Unemployment Rate7.66.25.44.9-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.6-5.7-4.3-3.0-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)86.288.189.089.3-  
Money (annual variation in %)5.46.25.93.1-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)2.00.50.21.6-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.61.50.00.7-  
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)1.30.0-  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.500.500.500.25-  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)14.4-2.7-4.914.4-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.661.561.471.23-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.561.651.531.36-  
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.4-4.7-  -  -  
Current Account Balance (GBP bn)-76.4-85.0-  -  -  
Trade Balance (GBP billion)-120.7-122.6-  -  -  
International Reserves (USD)92.495.7119124-  

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United Kingdom Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield1.47-3.04 %May 21
Exchange Rate1.34-0.35 %May 21
Stock Market7,859-0.26 %May 21

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