United Arab Emirates Economic Outlook
January 8, 2019Economic momentum appears to have taken a hit in the last quarter of the year due to nosediving oil prices in the period. Nevertheless, growth in the non-oil sector remained steady in Q4, as reflected by PMI data up to November, which suggests annual non-oil GDP growth in 2018 broadly matched the preceding year. However, the stock market in Dubai posted its worst annual performance since 2008 with a 25% fall, owing to oversupply and falling prices in the critical real-estate market; in contrast, the Abu Dhabi stock index performed robustly. Looking at 2019, Dubai unveiled its annual budget on 1 January, which was broadly stable from 2018’s record expenditures, with a continued focus on infrastructure investment to prepare for Expo 2020. This spending will supplement the largest budget in history which was recently enacted at the federal level.
United Arab Emirates Economic GrowthDespite uncertain prospects in the oil market, the economy appears ready for liftoff this year, propelled by multiple tailwinds. In addition to strong fiscal stimulus, both at the federal and emirate level, and the Expo 2020-related infrastructure push—which should buoy construction and tourism activity—the country should benefit from a surge in FDI inflows thanks to its recent landmark investment reform and business-friendly laws enacted in past months designed to ease the cost of doing business. Nevertheless, a global growth slowdown, which is expected to continue to weigh on oil prices, and increased financial volatility could somewhat cloud this rosy outlook. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to increase 3.1% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.3% in 2020.
United Arab Emirates Economy Data
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United Arab Emirates Facts
|Exchange Rate||3.67||0.0 %||Jan 30|
|Stock Market||0.3||0.75 %||Jan 30|
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United Arab Emirates Economic News
United Arab Emirates: PMI slumps in February on falling employment amid steep price competition; production outlook worsens
March 5, 2019
The Emirates NBD Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell from 56.3 in January to 53.4 in February, which marked its lowest level since October 2016.
United Arab Emirates: Consumer prices tumble sharply in January owing to high base effect from VAT introduction
March 4, 2019
Consumer prices fell 0.12% month-on-month in January, improving from the 0.31% decline recorded in December.
February 5, 2019
The Emirates NBD Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose from 54.0 in December, its lowest level since October 2016, to a seven-month high of 56.3 in January.
January 23, 2019
Consumer prices fell 0.31% in December from the previous month, broadly matching November’s 0.30% decline.
January 11, 2019
The Emirates NBD Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell from 55.8 in November to 54.0 in December, its lowest level since October 2016.