United Arab Emirates Economic Outlook
February 5, 2019Growth in the non-oil economy was likely broadly robust in the fourth quarter but nevertheless softened noticeably in December, when the PMI fell to an over two-year low on the back of weaker external demand. Meanwhile, although oil prices plunged in the quarter—which likely hit fiscal revenues in turn—oil production increased significantly in the same period, which bodes well for GDP growth in Q4. The December slowdown was also likely temporary, as indicated by still-upbeat business confidence in the month. Looking ahead, fiscal stimulus measures—both at the federal and emirate level—should support economic activity in Q1 and beyond. On 1 February, the IMF released its Article IV consultation report, in which it praised the country’s sound fiscal management and recent reforms to liberalize investment flows.
United Arab Emirates Economic GrowthAlthough the economy remains relatively sensitive to oil market fluctuations, prospects appear promising this year. A strong dose of fiscal stimulus and the ongoing infrastructure investment push related to the preparation of Expo 2020—which will notably buttress the construction sector—should drive momentum. The recent landmark investment law, relaxation of visa rules and other business-friendly reforms also all appear poised to both attract qualified foreign workers and to significantly boost FDI inflows. Nevertheless, slower global growth, trade protectionism and financial volatility constitute important downside risks. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to increase 3.0% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.4% in 2020.
United Arab Emirates Economy Data
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United Arab Emirates Facts
|Exchange Rate||3.67||0.0 %||Feb 14|
|Stock Market||0.3||0.75 %||Feb 12|
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United Arab Emirates Economic News
February 5, 2019
The Emirates NBD Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose from 54.0 in December, its lowest level since October 2016, to a seven-month high of 56.3 in January.
January 23, 2019
Consumer prices fell 0.31% in December from the previous month, broadly matching November’s 0.30% decline.
January 11, 2019
The Emirates NBD Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell from 55.8 in November to 54.0 in December, its lowest level since October 2016.
December 24, 2018
Consumer prices fell 0.30% in November from the previous month, following October’s 0.48% decline.
December 6, 2018
The Emirates NBD Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 55.8 in November, from 55.0 in October.