Ukraine Economic Forecast

Ukraine Economic Outlook

November 27, 2018

Preliminary GDP data revealed that the recovery lost traction in the third quarter, after growth hit a one-and-a-half year high in Q2. A poor performance of the agricultural sector due to bad weather and a weaker external sector seemed to be chiefly behind the slowdown—merchandise exports decelerated to a two-year low in Q3 amid feeble global trade. On 23 November, the parliament approved the 2019 budget, a critical step that will potentially unlock USD 3.9 billion in financing from the IMF and help to stabilize the economy in the run up to general elections next year. Meanwhile, on 25 November, Russia seized three Ukrainian military vessels just off Crimea after claiming they had entered Russian waters illegally. This marks a major escalation in Russia-Ukraine tensions and the first time the two militaries have come to open conflict in recent years. In response, on 26 November, Ukraine’s parliament approved the introduction of martial law in regions neighbouring Russia effective 28 November. Amid vocal concerns that it might be used as a cover to postpone March’s election, President Poroshenko agreed to limit martial law to 30 days instead of the initially planned 60 days.

Ukraine Economic Growth

Growth is seen slowing next year as the country faces election-related uncertainties and weaker external demand before it accelerates again in 2020. Domestic demand will remain firmly in the driver’s seat of the expansion in 2019, propped up by solid household consumption amid a tightening labor market and lower inflation, as well as by strong investment activity. Met the why particular panelists see GDP rising 2.8% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.0% in 2020.

Ukraine Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)45.242.842.642.442.3
GDP per capita (USD)3,9743,0582,0552,1752,678
GDP (USD bn)18013187.592.3113
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)0.0-6.6-9.82.42.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)6.9-8.3-20.72.17.8
Investment (annual variation in %)-8.4-24.0-9.220.418.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-4.3-11.1-13.02.80.4
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)5.6-9.8-21.04.48.6
Unemployment Rate7.29.39.19.49.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.3-4.5-1.6-2.3-1.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)39.969.479.180.971.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.524.943.312.413.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.312.148.514.914.5
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-0.117.136.020.526.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)6.5014.0022.0014.0014.50
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-8.628.8-37.811.218.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD)8.2415.8224.0327.1128.16
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)8.1512.0221.9525.5626.60
Current Account (% of GDP)-9.2-3.51.8-1.5-1.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-16.5-4.61.6-1.3-2.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)-22.1-7.1-3.5-6.8-9.4
Exports (USD billion)59.150.635.433.639.7
Imports (USD billion)81.257.738.911.449.1
Exports (annual variation in %)-8.3-14.5-29.9-5.218.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-5.8-29.0-32.63.821.5
International Reserves (USD)20.47.513.315.518.8
External Debt (% of GDP)79.096.4136124113

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Ukraine Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield19.000.0 %Jul 27
Exchange Rate27.740.30 %Dec 11
Stock Market5740.21 %Dec 11

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