Ukraine Economic Outlook
October 2, 2018The Ukrainian recovery picked up steam in the second quarter. Detailed national accounts data showed stronger-than-previously-estimated growth largely due to an early start of the harvesting season this year. Overall, buoyant domestic demand led the expansion in Q2: Public spending growth soared by double-digits thanks to higher household utility subsidies, while a robust labor market and higher remittances propped up solid household consumption growth. Fixed investment, meanwhile, decelerated in Q2, although growth remained robust nonetheless with budget capital expenditure on infrastructure projects rising markedly. On a less positive note, the IMF mission to Ukraine concluded in mid-September without reaching an agreement for the next tranche of financing under the existing USD 17.5 billion assistance program. Nevertheless, amid ongoing discussions with the IMF—where gas tariff regulation and tax policy reform remain key points of contention—Ukraine signed a EUR 1.0 billion loan agreement with the EU which should replenish the country’s international reserves.
Ukraine Economic GrowthSolid domestic demand dynamics should ensure steady recovery for the Ukrainian economy this year and next. Tighter labor market conditions will prop up private consumption growth, while fixed investment should remain strong on the back of buoyant public and private investment activity. Considerable risks to the outlook stem from the uncertainty surrounding the IMF agreement as well as from next year’s elections. Met the why particular panelists see GDP rising 3.2% in 2018 and 3.0% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate.
Ukraine Economy Data
5 years of Ukraine economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||19.00||0.0 %||Jul 27|
|Exchange Rate||28.05||0.30 %||Oct 18|
|Stock Market||560||0.21 %||Oct 18|
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Ukraine Economic News
October 11, 2018
Consumer prices rose 1.9% month-on-month in September, the sharpest rise since September 2017 (August: 0.0% mom).
September 27, 2018
According to data released by the Statistical Institute, industrial production fell 0.5% year-on-year in August, swinging from a healthy 2.9% rise in July.
September 20, 2018
Recently-released detailed national accounts data revealed that the recovery strengthened in the second quarter of 2018.
September 11, 2018
Consumer prices were flat month-on-month in August, following a 0.7% mom contraction in July.
September 6, 2018
At its 6 September meeting, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) decided to hike the key policy rate by 50 basis points to 18.00%.