Ukraine Economic Outlook
November 27, 2018Preliminary GDP data revealed that the recovery lost traction in the third quarter, after growth hit a one-and-a-half year high in Q2. A poor performance of the agricultural sector due to bad weather and a weaker external sector seemed to be chiefly behind the slowdown—merchandise exports decelerated to a two-year low in Q3 amid feeble global trade. On 23 November, the parliament approved the 2019 budget, a critical step that will potentially unlock USD 3.9 billion in financing from the IMF and help to stabilize the economy in the run up to general elections next year. Meanwhile, on 25 November, Russia seized three Ukrainian military vessels just off Crimea after claiming they had entered Russian waters illegally. This marks a major escalation in Russia-Ukraine tensions and the first time the two militaries have come to open conflict in recent years. In response, on 26 November, Ukraine’s parliament approved the introduction of martial law in regions neighbouring Russia effective 28 November. Amid vocal concerns that it might be used as a cover to postpone March’s election, President Poroshenko agreed to limit martial law to 30 days instead of the initially planned 60 days.
Ukraine Economic GrowthGrowth is seen slowing next year as the country faces election-related uncertainties and weaker external demand before it accelerates again in 2020. Domestic demand will remain firmly in the driver’s seat of the expansion in 2019, propped up by solid household consumption amid a tightening labor market and lower inflation, as well as by strong investment activity. Met the why particular panelists see GDP rising 2.8% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.0% in 2020.
Ukraine Economy Data
5 years of Ukraine economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||19.00||0.0 %||Jul 27|
|Exchange Rate||27.74||0.30 %||Dec 11|
|Stock Market||574||0.21 %||Dec 11|
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Ukraine Economic News
November 26, 2018
According to data released by the Statistical Institute, industrial production rose 1.4% on an annual basis in October, swinging from a 1.3% drop in September.
November 14, 2018
According to preliminary data released by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine on 14 November, the Ukrainian economy lost traction in the third quarter.
November 9, 2018
Consumer prices rose 1.7% month-on-month in October, down slightly from September’s 1.9% increase.
October 30, 2018
On 19 October, Ukraine and the IMF reached an agreement for a new 14-month USD 3.9 billion Stand-By Arrangement (SBA).
October 25, 2018
At its 25 October meeting, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) decided to leave the key policy rate fixed at 18.00%.