Ukraine Economic Forecast

Ukraine Economic Outlook

July 31, 2018

Ukraine’s recovery appears to have persisted in the second quarter, after growth picked up at the outset of the year. Domestic demand is expected to have remained in the driver’s seat in Q2: The sustained easing of inflationary pressures, coupled with improving labor market dynamics and strong remittance inflows, likely buttressed private consumption. In addition, household lending surged in the first half of the year against an increasingly stable banking sector. Meanwhile, the IMF has backed the country’s revised plans for an anti-corruption court after the amended law was approved by the Rada on 12 July. On a less positive note, in a move likely influenced by next year’s presidential and parliamentary elections, the government recently extended the gas-price freeze until the beginning of September, once again failing to fulfill one of the Fund’s key conditions and thereby reducing the prospects of receiving another tranche of funding in the coming months.

Ukraine Economic Growth

Domestic demand should remain healthy and lead the sustained recovery this year amid heavy investment activity and robust household consumption growth. Nevertheless, downside risks are significant and stem from mounting political tensions domestically and slow reform momentum. Met the why particular panelists see GDP rising 3.1% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.1% again in 2019.

Ukraine Economy Data

Population (million)45.242.842.642.442.3
GDP per capita (USD)3,9743,0582,0552,1752,678
GDP (USD bn)18013187.592.3113
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)0.0-6.6-
Consumption (annual variation in %)6.9-8.3-
Investment (annual variation in %)-8.4-24.0-9.220.418.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-4.3-11.1-
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)5.6-9.8-
Unemployment Rate7.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.3-4.5-1.6-2.3-1.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)39.969.479.180.971.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.524.943.312.413.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.312.148.514.914.5
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-
Policy Interest Rate (%)6.5014.0022.0014.0014.50
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-8.628.8-37.811.218.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD)8.2415.8224.0327.1128.16
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)8.1512.0221.9525.5626.60
Current Account (% of GDP)-9.2-3.51.8-1.5-1.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-16.5-4.61.6-1.3-2.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)-22.1-7.1-3.5-6.8-9.4
Exports (USD billion)59.150.635.433.639.7
Imports (USD billion)81.257.738.911.449.1
Exports (annual variation in %)-8.3-14.5-29.9-5.218.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-5.8-29.0-32.63.821.5
International Reserves (USD)20.47.513.315.518.8
External Debt (% of GDP)79.096.4136124113

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Ukraine Facts

Bond Yield19.000.0 %Jul 27
Exchange Rate27.500.30 %Aug 15
Stock Market5080.21 %Aug 15

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