Ukraine Economic Forecast

Ukraine Economic Outlook

January 8, 2019

A comprehensive GDP release confirmed that dynamics remained resilient in the third quarter, despite the generally disappointing outturn. Booming domestic demand, led by surging household consumption amid tightening labor market conditions and rising remittances, spearheaded the expansion. However, strong domestic demand dynamics were partly offset by a marked contraction in exports due to weather-related factors and a challenging external environment. Available fourth-quarter metrics suggests momentum remained largely stable. Retail sales edged up in November, against the backdrop of higher consumer confidence and despite an uptick in inflation. On a less positive note, industrial output contracted in the same month, reflecting weakness in the all-important manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, on 21 December, Moody’s upgraded Ukraine’s sovereign credit rating from Caa1 to Caa2 with a stable outlook. The ratings agency identified the recently approved USD 3.9 billion financing agreement with the IMF as the key driver for the upgrade, while citing the country’s improved external strength, the prospect of renewed access to capital markets, and its progress with anti-corruption reforms.

Ukraine Economic Growth

Buoyant domestic demand will remain firmly in the driver’s seat of the expansion this year, although growth will lose some steam from 2018. Solid private consumption, helped by a tightening labor market and strong investment activity growth, will be somewhat offset by weaker external demand. Meanwhile, election-related uncertainties cloud the outlook. Met the why particular panelists see GDP growth of 2.8% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.0% in 2020.

Ukraine Economy Data

Population (million)45.242.842.642.442.3
GDP per capita (USD)3,9743,0582,0552,1752,678
GDP (USD bn)18013187.592.3113
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)0.0-6.6-
Consumption (annual variation in %)6.9-8.3-
Investment (annual variation in %)-8.4-24.0-9.220.418.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-4.3-11.1-
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)5.6-9.8-
Unemployment Rate7.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.3-4.5-1.6-2.3-1.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)39.969.479.180.971.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.524.943.312.413.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.312.148.514.914.5
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-
Policy Interest Rate (%)6.5014.0022.0014.0014.50
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-8.628.8-37.811.218.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD)8.2415.8224.0327.1128.16
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)8.1512.0221.9525.5626.60
Current Account (% of GDP)-9.2-3.51.8-1.5-1.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-16.5-4.61.6-1.3-2.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)-22.1-7.1-3.5-6.8-9.4
Exports (USD billion)59.150.635.433.639.7
Imports (USD billion)81.257.738.911.449.1
Exports (annual variation in %)-8.3-14.5-29.9-5.218.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-5.8-29.0-32.63.821.5
International Reserves (USD)20.47.513.315.518.8
External Debt (% of GDP)79.096.4136124113

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Ukraine Facts

Bond Yield19.000.0 %Jul 27
Exchange Rate27.740.30 %Jan 30
Stock Market5520.21 %Jan 30

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