Uganda Economic Forecast

Uganda Economic Outlook

January 22, 2019

The economy kicked into a higher gear in Q3 2018, as annual growth hit a one-year high of 6.8% (Q2: +5.2% year-on-year). The acceleration was broad-based with agriculture, industry and services posting solid annual gains. Meanwhile, available data suggests that momentum carried over into Q4. The index of economic activity hit a fresh all-time high in November, pointing to improving metrics in private sector activity in the quarter. Furthermore, December’s PMI bounced back to October’s all-time high, reflecting booming consumer demand that fanned output and new orders growth. In a similar fashion, the business tendency indicator jumped to a near five-year high in December, amid an improved assessment of current business conditions.

Uganda Economic Growth

Growth should remain robust this year, with solid expansion in private sector credit, sustained FDI inflows and rising infrastructure investment fueling domestic demand. The all-important agricultural sector remains the key downside risk to the outlook, owing to its vulnerabilities to weather factors and volatility in global commodity prices. Met the why particular panelists project growth of 5.7% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 5.7% again in 2020.

Uganda Economy Data

Population (million)33.534.535.536.637.7
GDP per capita (USD)761812697687718
GDP (USD bn)25.528.024.725.127.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.1-4.7-4.6-3.8-4.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)27.730.833.537.2-  
Money (annual variation in %)8.415.65.413.615.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)11.5011.0017.0012.009.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2,5232,7653,3723,6113,645
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,5862,5993,2113,4183,612
Current Account (% of GDP)-7.2-7.7-6.8-2.8-4.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.8-2.2-1.7-0.7-1.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.1-2.4-2.3-1.5-1.7
Exports (USD billion)
Imports (USD billion)
Exports (annual variation in %)0.7-3.7-2.19.514.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-5.52.5-2.8-11.713.8
International Reserves (USD)
External Debt (% of GDP)34.332.023.321.925.5

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Uganda Facts

Exchange Rate3,6710.17 %Feb 14
Stock Market0.00.0 %Feb 14

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