Uganda Economic Forecast

Uganda Economic Outlook

July 17, 2018

The economy got off to a solid start in 2018, as GDP rose 6.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, matching the previous quarter’s expansion. Robust growth was led by the services sector, which expanded at a healthy pace in Q1, despite decelerating somewhat from the previous quarter. In addition, a strong industrial sector further buoyed growth in Q1, largely on the back of an increase in crude oil mining and exploration activities, in the face of rising global oil prices. Meanwhile, inflation dropped to a near four-year low in the quarter. Coupled with a more accommodative monetary policy environment, it likely spurred investment activity and consumer demand across sectors. Recent economic data suggests that momentum carried over into the second quarter: The PMI hit a year-to-date high in May and stayed elevated in June; furthermore, global oil prices continued to increase throughout the quarter.

Uganda Economic Growth

Domestic demand should stay healthy this year, on the back of sustained household consumption growth, and a jump in investment activity amid newly-announced public infrastructure investments. Our panelists project growth of 5.8% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 5.9% in 2019.

Uganda Economy Data

Population (million)33.534.535.536.637.7
GDP per capita (USD)761812697687718
GDP (USD bn)25.528.024.725.127.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.1-4.7-4.6-3.8-4.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)27.730.833.537.2-  
Money (annual variation in %)8.415.65.413.615.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)11.5011.0017.0012.009.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2,5232,7653,3723,6113,645
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,5862,5993,2113,4183,612
Current Account (% of GDP)-7.2-7.7-6.8-2.8-4.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.8-2.2-1.7-0.7-1.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.1-2.4-2.3-1.5-1.7
Exports (USD billion)
Imports (USD billion)
Exports (annual variation in %)0.7-3.7-2.19.514.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-5.52.5-2.8-11.713.8
International Reserves (USD)
External Debt (% of GDP)34.332.023.321.925.5

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Uganda Facts

Bond Yield14.001.02 %Aug 15
Exchange Rate3,7600.17 %Aug 15
Stock Market0.40.0 %Aug 06

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