Uganda Economic Forecast

Uganda Economic Outlook

November 13, 2018

Incoming data suggests that the economy shifted into a higher gear in the second half of the year, after GDP growth softened in Q2. The country’s PMI surged to an all-time high in October amid buoyant domestic demand, which led to robust growth in output and new orders. In addition, the business tendency indicator hit an eight-month high in the same month, largely thanks to an improving perception of the business situation over the next three months. The agricultural sector appears to be leading this positivity on expectations of a strong coffee harvest season this year.

Uganda Economic Growth

Domestic demand is expected to drive growth next year, supported by healthy private sector credit growth, higher infrastructure spending and continued FDI inflows. The key risks to the outlook stem from the country’s all-important agricultural sector and associated exports, which are highly vulnerable to weather factors and global commodity price trends. Met the why particular panelists project growth of 5.9% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 6.1% in 2020.

Uganda Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)33.534.535.536.637.7
GDP per capita (USD)761812697687718
GDP (USD bn)25.528.024.725.127.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.74.65.72.56.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.1-4.7-4.6-3.8-4.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)27.730.833.537.2-  
Money (annual variation in %)8.415.65.413.615.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.52.18.45.73.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.93.15.45.55.6
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2,5232,7653,3723,6113,645
Policy Interest Rate (%)11.5011.0017.0012.009.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,5862,5993,2113,4183,612
Current Account (% of GDP)-7.2-7.7-6.8-2.8-4.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.8-2.2-1.7-0.7-1.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.1-2.4-2.3-1.5-1.7
Exports (USD billion)2.82.72.72.93.3
Imports (USD billion)5.05.15.04.45.0
Exports (annual variation in %)0.7-3.7-2.19.514.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-5.52.5-2.8-11.713.8
International Reserves (USD)3.43.13.03.43.7
External Debt (% of GDP)34.332.023.321.925.5

Sample Report

5 years of Uganda economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.

Download

Sample Report

Get a sample report showing all the data and analysis covered in our Regional, Country and Commodities reports.

Download

Uganda Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate3,7330.17 %Dec 11
Stock Market0.00.0 %Dec 11

Start Your Free Trial

Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.

Sign Up

Search form