Uganda Economic Forecast

Uganda Economic Outlook

May 22, 2018

Growth momentum appears to have carried over into the first quarter of 2018, following an exceptionally strong performance last year, when the economy expanded at a seven-year high rate of 6.4%. The economic activity index ticked up and the business tendency indicator remained elevated throughout the quarter, signaling upbeat growth persisted from a quarter earlier. Meanwhile, the external sector performed well in Q1 on a sizeable jump in merchandise exports, which comfortably outpaced a more moderate increase in imports. Improving terms of trade have boosted activity in the manufacturing sector, which bodes well for domestic demand this year.

Uganda Economic Growth

Healthy domestic demand is expected to buttress economic activity this year, largely on the back of robust fixed investment growth and a rebound in private consumption. Long term growth will be further fueled by a buoyant external sector, amid planned government investments in oil and gas production. Met the why particular panelists project growth of 5.7% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 5.9% in 2019.

Uganda Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)37.638.739.941.142.3
GDP per capita (USD)662700632616-  
GDP (USD bn)24.927.125.225.3-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.74.95.72.3-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.1-4.8-4.5-3.8-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)27.330.133.235.7-  
Money (annual variation in %)8.415.65.413.6-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.52.18.45.7-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.93.15.45.5-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2,5232,7653,3723,611-  
Policy Interest Rate (%)11.5011.0017.0012.00-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,5862,5993,2113,418-  
Current Account (% of GDP)-7.2-8.8-7.1-4.7-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.8-2.4-1.8-1.2-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.1-2.4-2.3-1.4-  
Exports (USD billion)2.82.72.72.9-  
Imports (USD billion)5.05.15.04.3-  
Exports (annual variation in %)0.7-3.7-2.19.5-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-5.52.5-2.8-12.7-  
International Reserves (USD)3.13.22.83.0-  
External Debt (% of GDP)19.318.422.821.7-  

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Uganda Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield14.251.02 %May 21
Bond Yield14.251.02 %May 21
Exchange Rate3,7270.17 %May 21
Exchange Rate3,7270.17 %May 21
Stock Market0.30.0 %May 11
Stock Market0.30.0 %May 11

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