Uganda Economic Forecast

Uganda Economic Outlook

October 16, 2018

Preliminary GDP data revealed that the economy lost stride in Q2, with annual growth moderating to 5.0% from 6.2% in Q1. Nevertheless, the pace of expansion remained relatively solid. The second-quarter reading was underpinned by strong activity in the construction, and information and communication sectors. Meanwhile, on the external front, the current account deficit nearly doubled year-on-year in the quarter, mainly the result of notably higher imports of goods. Leading data for Q3, however, points to more positive dynamics. After edging down in August, the PMI rebounded strongly to a year-to-date high in September, indicating further improvement in private sector business conditions against a backdrop of upbeat domestic demand.

Uganda Economic Growth

Buoyant private sector credit growth, increased public investment in infrastructure and continued FDI inflows are seen contributing to solid growth next year. The key agricultural sector, and associated exports, remain vulnerable to adverse weather conditions, however. Met the why particular panelists project growth of 5.9% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 6.1% in 2020.

Uganda Economy Data

Population (million)33.534.535.536.637.7
GDP per capita (USD)761812697687718
GDP (USD bn)25.528.024.725.127.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.1-4.7-4.6-3.8-4.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)27.730.833.537.2-  
Money (annual variation in %)8.415.65.413.615.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)11.5011.0017.0012.009.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2,5232,7653,3723,6113,645
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,5862,5993,2113,4183,612
Current Account (% of GDP)-7.2-7.7-6.8-2.8-4.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.8-2.2-1.7-0.7-1.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.1-2.4-2.3-1.5-1.7
Exports (USD billion)
Imports (USD billion)
Exports (annual variation in %)0.7-3.7-2.19.514.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-5.52.5-2.8-11.713.8
International Reserves (USD)
External Debt (% of GDP)34.332.023.321.925.5

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Uganda Facts

Bond Yield17.201.02 %Oct 18
Exchange Rate3,7600.17 %Oct 18
Stock Market0.40.0 %Oct 17

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