Uganda Economic Forecast

Uganda Economic Outlook

April 16, 2019

Recently-released GDP data confirmed that economic activity accelerated in the final quarter of 2018. The economy grew 6.6% in the fourth quarter (Q3: +6.2% year-on-year), underpinned by robust agricultural production and upbeat gains in the services sector, particularly in the information and communications industry. Meanwhile, momentum appears to have carried over into Q1. The economic activity index reached an all-time high in January, signaling upbeat dynamism in the private sector. In addition, business confidence rose to its highest point since 2013 in February and, although the PMI moderated in the same month, it remained firmly in positive territory. The external sector fared less well, however, as merchandise exports contracted in January on lower shipments of coffee.

Uganda Economic Growth

Economic growth is projected to remain healthy this year, although will likely moderate a notch. Domestic demand should benefit from a pick-up in business investment and increased public infrastructure work. That said, climbing inflation could pinch consumers’ purchasing power. Volatility in global commodity prices remains a key downside risk to the outlook. Met the why particular panelists project growth of 5.7% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 5.7% again in 2020.

Uganda Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)33.534.535.536.637.7
GDP per capita (USD)761812697687718
GDP (USD bn)25.528.024.725.127.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.74.65.72.56.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.1-4.7-4.6-3.8-4.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)27.730.833.537.2-  
Money (annual variation in %)8.415.65.413.615.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.52.18.45.73.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.93.15.45.55.6
Policy Interest Rate (%)11.5011.0017.0012.009.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2,5232,7653,3723,6113,645
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,5862,5993,2113,4183,612
Current Account (% of GDP)-7.2-7.7-6.8-2.8-4.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.8-2.2-1.7-0.7-1.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.1-2.4-2.3-1.5-1.7
Exports (USD billion)2.82.72.72.93.3
Imports (USD billion)5.05.15.04.45.0
Exports (annual variation in %)0.7-3.7-2.19.514.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-5.52.5-2.8-11.713.8
International Reserves (USD)3.43.13.03.43.7
External Debt (% of GDP)34.332.023.321.925.5

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Uganda Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate3,7450.17 %Apr 12
Stock Market0.00.0 %Apr 12

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