Turkmenistan Economic Forecast

Turkmenistan Economic Outlook

September 4, 2018

Growth largely held up during the first seven months of the year as official government reports recorded an annual expansion of 6.2%, on the back of robust industrial output growth and sustained momentum in domestic consumption. Nevertheless, high import tariffs likely took a bite out of private consumption growth by fueling inflationary pressures in the period. Meanwhile, external sector dynamics appeared to be less upbeat. Capacity constraints have weighed on oil and gas output, effectively eliminating the gains from higher global energy prices. On 15 August, Turkmenistan reached an agreement with four other Caspian countries over how to divide the Caspian Sea’s oil and gas reserves, raising prospects for more energy exploration and pipeline projects looking ahead.

Turkmenistan Economic Growth

Oil and gas exports should prop up growth this year, despite output caps, amid a favorable outlook for global energy prices. The government’s commitment to business-friendly reforms could also lend support to increased investment. On the downside, gains from diversification efforts away from the energy sector are unlikely to materialize in the short term. Our panelists expect growth of 5.9% in 2018 and 5.8% in 2019.

Turkmenistan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)5.45.55.65.65.7
GDP per capita (USD)7,2587,9586,4506,7016,632
GDP (USD bn)38.943.535.937.837.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)11.211.36.56.26.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)1.50.9-0.7-2.3-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)20.016.821.824.1-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.86.07.43.56.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2.862.853.503.493.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2.852.853.493.433.50
Current Account (% of GDP)-7.4-6.1-15.5-19.1-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.9-2.6-5.6-7.2-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)6.87.56.04.0-  
Exports (USD billion)16.817.514.011.0-  
Imports (USD billion)11.011.08.07.0-  
Exports (annual variation in %)1.84.2-20.0-21.4-  
Imports (annual variation in %)1.00.0-20.0-12.5-  
External Debt (% of GDP)1.30.91.11.3-  

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Turkmenistan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate3.500.01 %Sep 24

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