Turkmenistan Economic Forecast

Turkmenistan Economic Outlook

May 8, 2018

Officially-reported growth came in at 6.2% year-on-year in the first quarter, easing slightly from 2017’s full-year 6.5% expansion but nonetheless remaining upbeat on the strength of industry and trade. Industrial output in the quarter was solid thanks to gains in the chemical, textile and food industries but was likely held back by the energy sector, which posted underwhelming oil and gas exports. Moreover, retail turnover jumped markedly, suggesting manageable inflation despite higher import duties. In a major step towards diversifying the economy and establishing a regional trade hub, the USD 1.5 billion Turkmenbashi seaport came online in early May.

Turkmenistan Economic Growth

Business-friendly reforms in the private sector are expected to spur stronger investment this year. Oil and gas exports, benefiting from higher energy prices, should also bolster growth. Gains from major infrastructure projects—including an international gas pipeline—should materialize over the medium term. Analysts expect growth of 6.1% in 2018, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and again in 2019.

Turkmenistan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)5.25.35.45.55.5
GDP per capita (USD)7,4328,1876,7086,921-  
GDP (USD bn)38.943.536.137.8-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)11.211.36.56.2-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)1.50.9-0.7-1.3-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)22.118.019.423.9-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.86.07.43.5-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2.852.853.113.50-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2.852.853.493.43-  
Current Account (% of GDP)-7.4-6.4-14.0-20.1-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.9-2.8-5.1-7.6-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)6.87.26.2-  -  
Exports (USD billion)16.817.514.0-  -  
Imports (USD billion)11.011.37.8-  -  
Exports (annual variation in %)1.84.2-20.0-  -  
Imports (annual variation in %)1.03.0-24.3-  -  
External Debt (% of GDP)1.30.91.1-  -  

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Turkmenistan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate3.500.01 %May 21
Exchange Rate3.500.01 %May 21

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