Turkmenistan Economic Forecast

Turkmenistan Economic Outlook

October 30, 2018

Growth appears to be holding up this year, with government sources reporting a strong expansion in the January–September period, driven by robust gains in industrial output and a buoyant services sector. On the fiscal front, the government collected nearly a fifth more in revenues than what was budgeted in the same nine-month period, boding well for increased social investments. Meanwhile, on the completion of its yearly staff visit on 8 October, the IMF recommended that authorities streamline public spending, liberalize business regulation and increase reliance on market-based mechanisms to improve productivity and growth prospects.

Turkmenistan Economic Growth

The economy is expected to lose some momentum next year, although growth should remain strong nonetheless. Higher overseas shipments of natural gas and petrochemicals are seen supporting economic activity as well as public finances. Potential spillovers from global trade tensions pose a key downside risk to the outlook. Meanwhile, the diversification of exports away from natural gas remains a major economic challenge ahead. Met the why particular panelists project GDP growth of 5.7% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 5.5% in 2020.

Turkmenistan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)5.45.55.65.65.7
GDP per capita (USD)7,2587,9586,4506,7016,632
GDP (USD bn)38.943.535.937.837.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)11.211.36.56.26.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)1.50.9-0.7-2.3-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)20.016.821.824.1-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.86.07.43.56.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2.862.853.503.493.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2.852.853.493.433.50
Current Account (% of GDP)-7.4-6.1-15.5-19.1-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.9-2.6-5.6-7.2-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)6.87.56.04.0-  
Exports (USD billion)16.817.514.011.0-  
Imports (USD billion)11.011.08.07.0-  
Exports (annual variation in %)1.84.2-20.0-21.4-  
Imports (annual variation in %)1.00.0-20.0-12.5-  
External Debt (% of GDP)1.30.91.11.3-  

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Turkmenistan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate3.500.01 %Nov 15

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