Turkmenistan Economic Outlook
May 7, 2019Turkmenistan’s economy remains the subject of controversy. On the one hand, after its Article IV visit on 26 March, the IMF concluded that a reduction in public investment last year had weighed on growth. Moreover, private investment and consumption have also suffered from tight currency controls and import restrictions, which have fueled inflation. On the other hand, official sources maintain that growth was robust last year and healthy momentum carried over into the first quarter, with GDP rising 6.2% annually in Q1 thanks to upbeat industrial production and sustained export growth. Although a higher-than-expected jump in oil prices likely granted a temporary boost in Q1, structural and market-driven reforms remain critical to diversifying the economy away from hydrocarbons and achieving sustainable growth.
Turkmenistan Economic GrowthGrowth is seen mildly decelerating this year on slowing domestic demand. Household spending will likely fall amid high inflation and higher-than-reported unemployment; unofficial sources, for example, suggest that 60% of the population is unemployed. The external sector, on the other hand, should benefit from exports of natural gas to Russia, which resumed in April after a three-year pause. Our panel expects growth of 5.8% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and again 5.8% in 2020.
Turkmenistan Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||7,258||7,958||6,450||6,701||6,632|
|GDP (USD bn)||38.9||43.5||35.9||37.8||37.9|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||11.2||11.3||6.5||6.2||6.5|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||1.5||0.9||-0.7||-2.3||-|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||20.0||16.8||21.8||24.1||-|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||6.8||6.0||7.4||3.5||6.0|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||2.86||2.85||3.50||3.49||3.50|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)||2.85||2.85||3.49||3.43||3.50|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-7.4||-6.1||-15.5||-19.1||-|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||-2.9||-2.6||-5.6||-7.2||-|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||6.8||7.5||6.0||4.0||-|
|Exports (USD billion)||16.8||17.5||14.0||11.0||-|
|Imports (USD billion)||11.0||11.0||8.0||7.0||-|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||1.8||4.2||-20.0||-21.4||-|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||1.0||0.0||-20.0||-12.5||-|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||1.3||0.9||1.1||1.3||-|
5 years of Turkmenistan economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||3.50||0.01 %||May 13|
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