Turkmenistan Economic Forecast

Turkmenistan Economic Outlook

January 8, 2019

The economy approached year-end on a solid footing, with the latest figures showing solid growth into Q4 on the back of sturdy industrial gains and buoyant exports. On the external front, improved oil and gas receipts, coupled with import restrictions, look to have enabled a year-end reduction of the current-account deficit. However, growth should ease in the near-term as officials slash government spending in their efforts to transition to a more market-driven economy. The move is part of the government’s seven-year development plan aimed at reducing dependence on hydrocarbons, by diversifying industrial output through private-sector initiatives.

Turkmenistan Economic Growth

Although economic activity is expected to lose steam this year, growth should remain upbeat. Stronger oil and gas output as new facilities come online, underpinned by sturdy global demand, is seen supporting growth as well as the public finances. Over the medium-term, major infrastructure projects—including the TAPI cross-border gas pipeline—should bolster both the hydrocarbon and non-hydrocarbon economies. Our panel projects growth of 5.7% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 5.5% in 2020.

Turkmenistan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)5.45.55.65.65.7
GDP per capita (USD)7,2587,9586,4506,7016,632
GDP (USD bn)38.943.535.937.837.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)11.211.36.56.26.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)1.50.9-0.7-2.3-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)20.016.821.824.1-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.86.07.43.56.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2.862.853.503.493.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2.852.853.493.433.50
Current Account (% of GDP)-7.4-6.1-15.5-19.1-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.9-2.6-5.6-7.2-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)6.87.56.04.0-  
Exports (USD billion)16.817.514.011.0-  
Imports (USD billion)11.011.08.07.0-  
Exports (annual variation in %)1.84.2-20.0-21.4-  
Imports (annual variation in %)1.00.0-20.0-12.5-  
External Debt (% of GDP)1.30.91.11.3-  

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Turkmenistan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate3.500.01 %Jan 22

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