Turkey Economic Forecast

Turkey Economic Outlook

October 2, 2018

Recent indicators suggest the economy slowed sharply in the third quarter. Consumer and business confidence continued to plummet in September and are now both firmly in negative territory, while in the same month the manufacturing PMI sank lower on stronger contractions in output and new orders. Moreover, annual retail sales growth reached an over one-year low in July. Retail sales likely softened further in the remainder of Q3, on higher inflation and weaker sentiment. On the plus side, the gaping current account deficit has begun to narrow thanks to the weaker currency and softer domestic demand. This comes after recent figures show that growth held up well in the second quarter, buoyed by a stronger external sector, a pre-election government spending boost and robust private consumption. On the political front, in late September Treasury and Finance Minister Berat Albayrak, presented the much-anticipated New Economic Plan, which sets out a more constrained fiscal stance and far lower growth forecasts.

Turkey Economic Growth

The economy will likely lose considerable steam in the next few quarters on tight financial conditions, weak sentiment and sky-high inflation. Further exchange rate volatility and an escalation of geopolitical tensions pose significant downside risks. Met the why particular panelists expect growth of 3.6% this year and 1.0% in 2019, down 2.0 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

Turkey Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)76.777.778.779.880.8
GDP per capita (USD)12,38612,02611,89811,80511,536
GDP (USD bn)950934858862851
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)8.55.26.13.27.4
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)11.03.25.44.47.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)7.93.05.43.76.1
Investment (annual variation in %)13.85.19.32.27.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)7.25.75.83.48.9
Unemployment Rate9.111.011.311.911.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.0-1.1-1.0-1.1-1.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)31.328.627.528.328.3
Money (annual variation in %)21.511.917.417.615.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)7.48.28.88.511.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)7.58.97.77.811.1
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)7.06.45.79.915.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.508.257.508.008.00
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-13.326.4-16.38.947.6
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2.152.332.923.533.79
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.912.192.733.023.65
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.7-4.7-3.7-3.8-5.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-63.6-43.6-32.1-33.1-47.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-79.9-63.6-48.1-11.9-58.9
Exports (USD billion)162169152150166
Imports (USD billion)242233200191225
Exports (annual variation in %)-0.14.4-11.0-1.211.7
Imports (annual variation in %)6.3-3.8-13.9-4.517.8
International Reserves (USD)11111792.992.184.2
External Debt (% of GDP)41.343.346.647.353.2

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Turkey Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield17.61-0.09 %Oct 18
Exchange Rate5.64-0.85 %Oct 18
Stock Market97,4541.41 %Oct 18

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