Turkey Economic Outlook
July 31, 2018The economy likely lost momentum in Q2 on tighter credit conditions, as overheating concerns swirl. Industrial production growth in April and May was down notably from Q1’s stellar print, while the expansion in retail sales slowed markedly in May and the manufacturing PMI was in negative territory throughout Q2. Heading into the third quarter, business sentiment withered in July on lower optimism regarding current orders, general business conditions and employment. Economic imbalances furthermore continue to intensify: Inflation in June was triple the Central Bank’s target, while the current account deficit broadened further in May. Against this backdrop, President Erdogan announced his cabinet on 9 July. His son-in-law Berat Albayrak, the former energy minister, will head the new treasury and finance ministry. He effectively replaces Mehmet Simsek and Naci Agbal, two business-friendly ministers, adding to market concerns over the direction of economic policy.
Turkey Economic GrowthEconomic growth will likely weaken in the coming quarters, on tighter financial conditions, shaky investor sentiment and a higher oil import bill. Exchange rate volatility, geopolitical tensions, a gaping current account deficit and elevated inflation pose downside risks. Met the why particular panelists expect growth of 4.2% this year, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. They see growth of 3.5% in 2019.
Turkey Economy Data
5 years of Turkey economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||20.59||-0.09 %||Aug 15|
|Exchange Rate||5.99||-0.85 %||Aug 15|
|Stock Market||90,263||1.41 %||Aug 15|
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Turkey Economic News
August 17, 2018
The consumer confidence index, published by the Statistical Institute in cooperation with the Central Bank, declined from 73.1 in July to 68.3 in August, the lowest reading since December last year.
August 16, 2018
Industrial production rose 3.2% in June in calendar-adjusted year-on-year terms, down markedly from May’s revised 6.5% increase (previously reported: +6.4% year-on-year) and marking a continuation of the ebbing momentum observed in the industrial sector since the outset of the year.
August 11, 2018
The current account balance recorded a USD 3.0 billion deficit in June, USD 0.8 billion smaller than the deficit recorded in June 2017.
August 3, 2018
Consumer prices rose 0.55% from the previous month in July, down from June’s 2.61% rise, according to data released by the Turkish Statistical Institute (Turkstat).
August 1, 2018
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), produced by the Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) and IHS Markit, rose slightly from 46.8 in June to 49.0 in July.