Turkey Economic Outlook
October 2, 2018Recent indicators suggest the economy slowed sharply in the third quarter. Consumer and business confidence continued to plummet in September and are now both firmly in negative territory, while in the same month the manufacturing PMI sank lower on stronger contractions in output and new orders. Moreover, annual retail sales growth reached an over one-year low in July. Retail sales likely softened further in the remainder of Q3, on higher inflation and weaker sentiment. On the plus side, the gaping current account deficit has begun to narrow thanks to the weaker currency and softer domestic demand. This comes after recent figures show that growth held up well in the second quarter, buoyed by a stronger external sector, a pre-election government spending boost and robust private consumption. On the political front, in late September Treasury and Finance Minister Berat Albayrak, presented the much-anticipated New Economic Plan, which sets out a more constrained fiscal stance and far lower growth forecasts.
Turkey Economic GrowthThe economy will likely lose considerable steam in the next few quarters on tight financial conditions, weak sentiment and sky-high inflation. Further exchange rate volatility and an escalation of geopolitical tensions pose significant downside risks. Met the why particular panelists expect growth of 3.6% this year and 1.0% in 2019, down 2.0 percentage points from last month’s forecast.
Turkey Economy Data
5 years of Turkey economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||17.61||-0.09 %||Oct 18|
|Exchange Rate||5.64||-0.85 %||Oct 18|
|Stock Market||97,454||1.41 %||Oct 18|
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Turkey Economic News
October 16, 2018
Industrial production rose 1.7% in August in calendar-adjusted year-on-year terms, down markedly from July’s 5.6% expansion.
October 11, 2018
The current account balance recorded a USD 2.6 billion surplus in August, markedly contrasting the USD 0.9 billion deficit observed in the same month a year earlier and marking the first surplus since September 2015.
October 3, 2018
Consumer prices rose 6.30% from the previous month in September, up from August’s 2.30% rise, according to data released by the Turkish Statistical Institute (Turkstat).
October 1, 2018
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), produced by the Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) and IHS Markit, fell sharply from 46.4 in August to 42.7 in September.
September 26, 2018
The Real Sector Confidence Index published by the Central Bank declined from 96.4 in August to 89.6 in September, marking the sixth consecutive monthly decline and the lowest reading in nearly a decade.