Turkey Economic Outlook
November 27, 2018The economy appeared to slow sharply in the third quarter on financial and currency market volatility, and soaring inflation. Annual retail sales growth virtually flatlined, industrial production was limp and the unemployment rate rose notably in July and August. Looking to Q4, economic conditions remain gloomy. Business and consumer confidence stayed downbeat in November despite registering improvements, while automotive sales continued to plummet in year-on-year terms in October—an ominous sign for private consumption in the final quarter. Moreover, despite a slight uptick, the manufacturing PMI was deep in contractionary territory in October on lower new orders, output and employment. More positively, the lira has continued to strengthen over the last month thanks to thawing relations with the U.S. and a marked turnaround in the current account, which should ease corporates’ external debt burdens. In late October, Finance Minister Berat Albayrak presented a fiscally cautious 2019 budget to parliament.
Turkey Economic GrowthGrowth next year will likely be soft, weighed down by restrictive financial conditions constraining private consumption and fixed investment, and the government’s tighter fiscal stance. However, the external sector should provide some support. Further exchange rate volatility and the possibility of renewed geopolitical tensions pose significant downside risks. Met the why particular panelists expect growth of 0.2% in 2019, down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.3% in 2020.
Turkey Economy Data
5 years of Turkey economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Turkey Economy Overviewrrr
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|Bond Yield||17.30||-0.09 %||Dec 14|
|Exchange Rate||5.36||-0.85 %||Dec 14|
|Stock Market||90,529||1.41 %||Dec 14|
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Turkey Economic News
December 17, 2018
Industrial production declined 5.7% in October in calendar-adjusted year-on-year terms, a deterioration from September’s revised 2.4% decrease (previously reported: -2.7% year-on-year).
December 13, 2018
At its monetary policy meeting on 13 December, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) left the one-week repo rate unchanged at 24.00% for the second consecutive month.
December 11, 2018
The current account balance recorded a USD 2.8 billion surplus in October, up from September’s USD 1.8 billion surplus and a marked turnaround from the USD 3.8 billion deficit observed in the same month last year.
December 11, 2018
According to data released by Turkstat on 11 December, the Turkish economy lost further steam in Q3, amid significant financial market and exchange-rate turbulence, soaring inflation and higher interest rates during the period.
December 3, 2018
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), produced by the Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) and IHS Markit, increased from 44.3 in October to 44.7 in November.