Tunisia Economic Forecast

Tunisia Economic Outlook

October 30, 2018

Strong tourism and a good performance from the agricultural sector likely buttressed growth in Q3, although the large trade deficit remains a key source of concern. Despite having unlocked loans worth USD 747 million from the IMF and the World Bank in recent weeks, on 8 October Moody’s downgraded Tunisia’s outlook to negative, citing the country’s rapidly depleting foreign exchange reserves. In October, the government issued USD 570 million of sovereign bonds, and presented a fairly expansionary draft 2019 budget with one eye on next year’s elections.

Tunisia Economic Growth

The revival of the tourism industry, as well as a rebound in mining and quarrying output, should support growth in 2019 and 2020. High fiscal and trade deficits remain key downside risks, as well as elevated unemployment—notably among the youth—which could provoke labor strikes, unrest and fuel political instability. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP growth of 2.6% in 2019, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.2% in 2020.

Tunisia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)11.911.011.111.411.5
GDP per capita (USD)4,2444,3233,8833,6613,483
GDP (USD bn)46.247.543.141.711.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.42.30.81.01.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.04.13.23.1-  
Investment (annual variation in %)0.2-2.9-0.51.0-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.1-1.1-2.6-0.5-1.0
Unemployment Rate15.815.015.215.515.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.9-5.0-4.8-6.1-6.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)46.650.855.461.969.9
Money (annual variation in %)4.48.08.48.016.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.84.14.26.46.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.84.94.93.75.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.504.754.254.255.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.651.872.042.302.46
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.631.701.962.152.41
Current Account (% of GDP)-8.4-9.1-8.9-8.8-11.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-3.9-4.3-3.8-3.7-4.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-7.1-8.1-6.2-5.8-6.4
Exports (USD billion)16.716.914.113.314.2
Imports (USD billion)23.925.020.319.120.6
Exports (annual variation in %)-0.30.9-16.3-6.06.5
Imports (annual variation in %)-1.14.7-18.7-6.28.0
International Reserves (USD)7.77.67.46.05.7
External Debt (% of GDP)55.555.562.967.3-  

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Tunisia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield6.970.0 %Mar 15
Exchange Rate2.91-0.27 %Nov 09
Stock Market0.10.05 %Nov 08

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