Trinidad & Tobago Economic Forecast

Trinidad and Tobago Economic Outlook

July 11, 2018

An economic recovery appears to have taken hold in 2018, propelled by strong growth in the energy sector. Oil and natural gas output are ramping up, supported by higher commodity prices and new gas field projects that came online in the first half of the year. Moreover, private credit growth accelerated and business credit rebounded in April, suggesting higher confidence in the private sector. In addition, the government’s fiscal consolidation efforts are coming to fruition, as seen in preliminary data for 2018 showing a narrower fiscal deficit.

Trinidad & Tobago Economic Growth

Economic momentum should continue to gain steam on the back of the oil sector. Growth in the medium term will be buoyed by BP’s Angelin and Cassia projects coming online in 2019 and 2020, respectively. Met the why particular panelists expect growth of 1.4% this year, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.0% in 2019.

Trinidad & Tobago Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)1.31.41.41.41.4
GDP per capita (USD)19,61119,33217,32316,011-  
GDP (USD bn)26.426.223.621.9-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.7-0.6-0.6-2.3-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)-13.6-0.98.9-  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)11.94.6-31.5-  -  
Unemployment Rate3.73.33.43.9-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.9-2.6-1.7-5.3-8.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)11.246.350.958.861.6
Money (annual variation in %)8.813.1-1.43.2-2.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.68.51.53.11.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.25.74.73.11.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)2.753.254.754.754.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.416.376.426.716.77
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.416.396.366.636.74
Current Account (% of GDP)20.314.74.6-11.7-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)5.44.01.1-2.6-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)7.66.42.5-1.2-  
Exports (USD billion)17.615.011.18.2-  
Imports (USD billion)11.08.68.69.4-  
Exports (annual variation in %)36.2-14.9-25.7-26.1-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-14.2-14.40.59.5-  
International Reserves (USD)11.211.59.99.58.4
External Debt (% of GDP)14.515.316.721.8-  

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Trinidad & Tobago Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate6.740.39 %Jul 17

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