Trinidad & Tobago Economic Forecast

Trinidad and Tobago Economic Outlook

May 14, 2019

The economy likely performed well in the first quarter. The Angelin project, which came online in late-February, will have supported LNG output growth, boding well for the energy and external sectors. Moreover, domestic cement sales bounced back in Q1 after contracting in Q4 2018; this suggests stronger construction activity, and was likely reinforced by government measures to support the housing sector. This followed a rebound in the economy for 2018 as a whole. The energy sector accelerated last year on the back of increased natural gas production from the Juniper project; however, the non-energy sector was flat, held back by tepid domestic demand and weakness in the manufacturing and construction sectors.

Trinidad & Tobago Economic Growth

Although the economy is projected to soften in 2019, increased natural gas output—which could have spillovers to the non-energy sector—should buttress economic activity. Developments in neighboring Venezuela and high household debt are the key downside risks. Met the why particular panelists see growth of 1.0% in 2019, which is down 0.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.9% in 2020.

Trinidad & Tobago Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)1.31.41.41.41.4
GDP per capita (USD)19,61119,33217,32316,011-  
GDP (USD bn)26.426.223.621.9-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.7-0.6-0.6-2.3-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)-13.6-0.98.9-  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)11.94.6-31.5-  -  
Unemployment Rate3.73.33.43.9-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.9-2.6-1.7-5.3-8.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)11.246.350.958.861.6
Money (annual variation in %)8.813.1-1.43.2-2.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.68.51.53.11.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.25.74.73.11.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)2.753.254.754.754.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.416.376.426.716.77
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.416.396.366.636.74
Current Account (% of GDP)20.314.74.6-11.7-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)5.44.01.1-2.6-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)7.66.42.5-1.2-  
Exports (USD billion)17.615.011.18.2-  
Imports (USD billion)11.08.68.69.4-  
Exports (annual variation in %)36.2-14.9-25.7-26.1-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-14.2-14.40.59.5-  
International Reserves (USD)11.211.59.99.58.4
External Debt (% of GDP)14.515.316.721.8-  

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Trinidad & Tobago Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate6.770.39 %May 13

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