Trinidad & Tobago Economic Forecast

Trinidad and Tobago Economic Outlook

September 12, 2018

Dynamics in the hydrocarbon sector continue to drive the economy in H2 2018, after higher energy prices supported a recovery in H1. On 25 August the government signed a deal with Venezuela to purchase 150 MMcf/d of natural gas, securing supply for the island’s LNG-processing industry and attracting USD 160 million of investment to build a pipeline between the two countries. However, on 28 August, the government ordered the closure of refining operations by 1 October at the island’s largest oil refinery, Petrotrin, after years of heavy losses amid subdued oil production. The oil and gas trade union responded by threatening a general strike, which could derail the economy and cause political instability in coming weeks.

Trinidad & Tobago Economic Growth

Growth should accelerate in 2018 and over the following few years as new gas projects come online, notably BP’s Angelin in 2019 and Cassia in 2020, which should also support recovery in the non-oil economy. Met the why particular panelists expect growth of 1.4% this year, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.0% in 2019.

Trinidad & Tobago Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)1.31.41.41.41.4
GDP per capita (USD)19,61119,33217,32316,011-  
GDP (USD bn)26.426.223.621.9-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.7-0.6-0.6-2.3-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)-13.6-0.98.9-  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)11.94.6-31.5-  -  
Unemployment Rate3.73.33.43.9-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.9-2.6-1.7-5.3-8.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)11.246.350.958.861.6
Money (annual variation in %)8.813.1-1.43.2-2.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.68.51.53.11.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.25.74.73.11.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)2.753.254.754.754.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.416.376.426.716.77
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.416.396.366.636.74
Current Account (% of GDP)20.314.74.6-11.7-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)5.44.01.1-2.6-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)7.66.42.5-1.2-  
Exports (USD billion)17.615.011.18.2-  
Imports (USD billion)11.08.68.69.4-  
Exports (annual variation in %)36.2-14.9-25.7-26.1-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-14.2-14.40.59.5-  
International Reserves (USD)11.211.59.99.58.4
External Debt (% of GDP)14.515.316.721.8-  

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Trinidad & Tobago Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate6.740.39 %Sep 24

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