Trinidad & Tobago Economic Forecast

Trinidad and Tobago Economic Outlook

November 6, 2018

The economic performance in the second and third quarters was likely buttressed by the hydrocarbon sector, thanks both to higher oil prices and an uptick in natural gas output on the back of BP’s Juniper project. These developments buoyed the fiscal position, helping the deficit narrow markedly through June, with the positive effects set to continue in H2. On the other hand, oil-sector activity will likely soften somewhat in Q4 as state-run company Petrotrin halted its oil refining operations in October while the company is restructuring, with the indefinite closing of the island’s only refinery scheduled for 30 November.

Trinidad & Tobago Economic Growth

Growth appears poised to accelerate next year due to greater natural gas output, as the Angelin project comes on line. The country’s vulnerability to a downturn in energy prices, however, remains a significant downside risk. Met the why particular panelists expect growth of 1.7% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.6% in 2020.

Trinidad & Tobago Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)1.31.41.41.41.4
GDP per capita (USD)19,61119,33217,32316,011-  
GDP (USD bn)26.426.223.621.9-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.7-0.6-0.6-2.3-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)-13.6-0.98.9-  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)11.94.6-31.5-  -  
Unemployment Rate3.73.33.43.9-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.9-2.6-1.7-5.3-8.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)11.246.350.958.861.6
Money (annual variation in %)8.813.1-1.43.2-2.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.68.51.53.11.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.25.74.73.11.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)2.753.254.754.754.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.416.376.426.716.77
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.416.396.366.636.74
Current Account (% of GDP)20.314.74.6-11.7-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)5.44.01.1-2.6-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)7.66.42.5-1.2-  
Exports (USD billion)17.615.011.18.2-  
Imports (USD billion)11.08.68.69.4-  
Exports (annual variation in %)36.2-14.9-25.7-26.1-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-14.2-14.40.59.5-  
International Reserves (USD)11.211.59.99.58.4
External Debt (% of GDP)14.515.316.721.8-  

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Trinidad & Tobago Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate6.740.39 %Nov 15

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