Thailand Economic Forecast

Thailand Economic Outlook

May 22, 2018

Available data suggests that last year’s strong economic momentum carried over into this year. Export growth was robust throughout Q1, propelled by buoyant global growth. Moreover, monthly data shows private consumption picked up in the period thanks to low unemployment and elevated consumer confidence; sentiment among consumers averaged higher in Q1 than in Q4, and it reached the highest level since December 2014 in April. On a less positive note, business confidence dropped into pessimistic territory for the first time in a year in April. In the same month, the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory, while manufacturing output eased for the fourth consecutive month in March.

Thailand Economic Growth

Domestic demand is expected to increase this year and next on the back of a pick-up in public sector consumption and fixed investment ahead of elections scheduled for no later than February 2019. Export growth, however, is likely to moderate due to a large base effect, while increasing trade tensions between the U.S. and China continue to pose a significant downside risk to the external sector. Domestic risks include the high level of household debt, which could drag on private consumption. Political uncertainty in the lead up to the elections could moreover dent investor confidence. Met the why particular panelists expect the economy to grow 3.9% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. The panel projects growth of 3.7% in 2019.

Thailand Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)68.368.768.869.069.1
GDP per capita (USD)6,1755,9255,7885,907-  
GDP (USD bn)422117398117-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.70.92.93.2-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)0.90.92.23.1-  
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.0-2.24.42.8-  
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)2.3-3.8-  -  -  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-0.3-6.00.13.0-  
Unemployment Rate0.60.60.70.8-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.2-2.0-2.4-2.7-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)42.242.643.941.2-  
Money (annual variation in %)3.91.35.74.8-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)1.70.6-0.91.1-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.21.9-0.90.2-  
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)0.30.1-  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)2.252.001.501.50-  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)36.0-13.624.1-17.7-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)32.7632.9236.0435.78-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)30.6832.4434.2135.24-  
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.23.78.111.7-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-4.915.132.147.7-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)0.217.226.836.6-  
Exports (USD billion)228227214214-  
Imports (USD billion)228211187178-  
Exports (annual variation in %)0.3-0.6-5.90.4-  
Imports (annual variation in %)0.3-8.1-11.0-4.8-  
International Reserves (USD)167157157172-  
External Debt (% of GDP)33.734.833.032.2-  

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Thailand Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield2.720.0 %May 21
Exchange Rate32.160.17 %May 21
Stock Market1,768-1.41 %May 21

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