Thailand Economic Outlook
February 19, 2019The economy shifted into a higher gear in the fourth quarter of last year on the back of a solid performance by the domestic economy and a softer drag on the economy from the external sector. Although the acceleration in the pace of growth had been anticipated due to robust monthly data, the tempo at which the economy grew exceeded market analysts’ expectations. Delving more deeply into the quarterly drivers, domestic demand was carried by private consumption and fixed investment, while the external sector benefited from a rebound in exports amid softer import growth. The new year also seemed to kick off on a good footing: Sentiment among businesses and firms rose in January while the manufacturing PMI continued to indicate improving operating conditions, albeit at a slightly softer pace than in December.
Thailand Economic GrowthEconomic growth is expected to moderate somewhat this year despite stronger fixed investment and public consumption growth. Private consumption should remain robust on improving farm and non-farm incomes. However, a possible flare-up in the Sino-American trade spat following the end to the temporary truce on 1 March darkens the horizon. Increasing domestic tensions in the lead-up to the general elections is another downside risk. Our panel projects economic growth of 3.7% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.6% in 2020.
Thailand Economy Data
5 years of Thailand economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||2.52||0.0 %||Mar 11|
|Exchange Rate||31.66||0.17 %||Mar 11|
|Stock Market||1,627||-1.41 %||Mar 11|
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Thailand Economic News
Thailand: Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha expected to hold on to power in first election since 2014
March 18, 2019
Thailand is scheduled to hold a general election on 24 March and the military is likely to maintain significant influence over politics following the vote.
March 4, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.24% in February over the previous month (January: -0.02% month-on-month) on higher prices for transportation and communication; non-food and beverages; and raw food and energy, while prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages increased at a softer pace in February compared to January. Inflation more than doubled from 0.3% in January to 0.7% in February, but remained below the Bank of Thailand’s 1.0%–4.0% target range.
February 28, 2019
Manufacturing output grew a meager 0.2% year-on-year in January, down from a revised 1.2% expansion in December (previously reported: +0.8% year-on-year).
February 21, 2019
The external sector got off to a false start in the new year, with the trade balance swinging from a USD 1.1 billion surplus in December to a USD 4.0 billion deficit in January.
February 18, 2019
The Thai economy shifted into a higher gear in the fourth quarter of last year.