Thailand Economic Outlook
December 13, 2018Economic growth decelerated in the third quarter on a weakening external sector after exports were hit by spillovers from the U.S.-China trade spat. Domestic demand, however, remained resilient in the quarter, with private consumption growing at the fastest pace in nearly two years amid improving wage growth and subdued inflation. Data on the fourth quarter is somewhat mixed. The external sector started off on the wrong foot, recording a small deficit in October as merchandise import growth outpaced export growth. In addition, the manufacturing PMI remained below the critical 50-point mark through November, indicating a deterioration in operating conditions in the sector. In more positive news, private consumption expanded robustly in October, while private investment growth accelerated to a near six-year high in the same month.
Thailand Economic GrowthThailand’s economy is expected to continue growing at a solid, albeit more moderate, clip next year, powered by growing government consumption and fixed investment. However, softening contributions from the external sector and private consumption will likely weigh on growth. Looking ahead, although a continuation of the recent ceasefire in the Sino-American trade dispute would reduce downside risks to the external sector, possible tensions in the lead-up to general elections pose a threat. Our panel projects economic growth of 3.8% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.5% in 2020.
Thailand Economy Data
5 years of Thailand economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||2.48||0.0 %||Jan 21|
|Exchange Rate||31.70||0.17 %||Jan 21|
|Stock Market||1,588||-1.41 %||Jan 21|
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Thailand Economic News
January 21, 2019
Thailand’s external sector logged a trade surplus of USD 1.1 billion in December, contrasting the USD 1.2 billion shortfall in November and markedly above the USD 220 million deficit of December 2017.
January 7, 2019
Consumer prices dropped 0.65% over the previous month in December, a sharper drop than November’s 0.22% decrease.
December 28, 2018
Thailand recorded a USD 1.2 billion trade deficit in November, a bigger shortfall than October’s USD 280 million deficit.
December 28, 2018
Manufacturing production moderated strongly to a 1.0% year-on-year expansion in November from an upwardly revised 5.8% increase in October (previously reported: +4.1% year-on-year) and came in below market expectations.
December 19, 2018
Following the increasing hawkishness of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Thailand since August, the committee raised the policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.75% from 1.50% at its meeting on 19 December.