Thailand Economic Forecast

Thailand Economic Outlook

April 16, 2019

The outcome of the March general election remains uncertain with both the opposition alliance (PT) and the pro-junta bloc (PP) currently lacking the numbers needed to form coalitions and nominate a prime minister. However, the PP bloc is expected to secure enough seats to form a government after official election results are released on 9 May. Political uncertainty prior to, and after, the general elections is likely leaving its mark on the economy. Private consumption growth moderated noticeably in February while private investment fell in the same month, reflecting dampening domestic demand. Weakening demand in Thailand is also evidenced by the marked drop in imports in February. Manufacturing output, meanwhile, dropped at the steepest rate in over four years in February, while the average manufacturing PMI reading for Q1 suggested only a fractional improvement in operating conditions.

Thailand Economic Growth

The economy is expected to grow at a more moderate pace this year despite robust public expenditure and fixed investment growth related to infrastructure projects. The ongoing trade spat between the U.S. and China remains a key downside risk to the outlook, while high household indebtedness could drag on household expenditure. Our panel expects the economy to expand 3.6% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.6% again in 2020.

Thailand Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)68.368.768.869.069.1
GDP per capita (USD)6,1725,9375,8195,9706,591
GDP (USD bn)422118111412455
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.71.03.03.33.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)0.90.82.33.03.2
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.0-2.24.32.80.9
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)1.9-4.00.01.42.5
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)0.0-5.8-0.11.06.2
Unemployment Rate0.60.60.70.81.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.9-2.9-2.9-2.8-3.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)42.242.543.711.741.8
Money (annual variation in %)3.91.35.74.89.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)1.70.6-0.91.10.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.21.9-0.90.20.7
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)0.30.1-4.1-1.20.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)2.252.001.501.501.50
Stock Market (annual variation in %)36.0-13.624.1-17.721.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD)32.7632.9236.0435.7832.64
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)30.6832.4434.2135.2433.90
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.23.78.011.711.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-4.915.232.148.248.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)0.117.226.836.631.8
Exports (USD billion)228227214214235
Imports (USD billion)228211187178203
Exports (annual variation in %)0.3-0.6-5.90.49.5
Imports (annual variation in %)0.3-8.1-11.0-4.814.2
International Reserves (USD)167157157172203
External Debt (% of GDP)33.734.832.732.132.7

Sample Report

5 years of Thailand economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.

Download

Sample Report

Get a sample report showing our regional, country and commodities data and analysis.

Download

Thailand Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield2.460.0 %May 13
Exchange Rate31.590.17 %May 13
Stock Market1,611-1.41 %May 13

Request a Trial

Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.

Sign Up

Thailand Economic News

  • Thailand: Inflation stable in April at lower end of Central Bank’s target range

    May 16, 2019

    Consumer prices rose 0.44% in April over the previous month (March: 0.41% month-on-month) due to stronger price increases for food and non-alcoholic beverages, and apparel and footwear. Inflation was stable at March’s 1.2% in April, remaining within the Central Bank’s 1.0%–4.0% target range for the second time after several months of undershooting.

    Read more

  • Thailand: Bank of Thailand stands pat in May

    May 8, 2019

    In a unanimous vote at its 8 May meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Thailand opted to leave the policy rate unaltered at 1.75% after the committee turned more dovish in the prior meeting.

    Read more

  • Thailand: Manufacturing output drops in March

    April 30, 2019

    Manufacturing production fell 2.5% year-on-year in March, down from a revised 1.3% drop in the prior month (previously reported: -1.6% year-on-year).

    Read more

  • Thailand: Exports drop in March, rounding off a weak first quarter

    April 23, 2019

    Thailand’s trade balance dropped from a USD 4.0 billion surplus in February to a USD 2.0 billion surplus in March; however, the 12-month moving sum of the trade balance increased to a USD 3.0 billion surplus from a surplus of USD 2.4 billion in February. In March, exports dropped 4.9% year-on-year while imports fell 7.6% year-on-year.

    Read more

  • Thailand: Inflation returns to target in March

    April 4, 2019

    Consumer prices rose 0.41% in March over the previous month (February: 0.24% month-on-month) due to higher prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages; housing and furnishing; and transport and communication. Inflation picked up to 1.2% in March, up from 0.7% in February and returning to the Central Bank’s 1.0%–4.0% target range.

    Read more

Search form