Tanzania Economic Forecast

Tanzania Economic Outlook

December 13, 2018

Economic activity was likely resilient in the third quarter. The production of gold—the country’s main export—increased robustly in the quarter, while credit growth expanded solidly in the year ending September. However, the current account deficit widened notably in annual terms in the same period, mainly due to soaring imports of capital goods. In its latest financial system stability assessment in early December, the IMF encouraged the country to strengthen the capital buffers of the banking system, burdened by a high stock of bad loans. Meanwhile, in the international arena, the government has faced increasing criticism over minority rights abuses: The EU is reviewing its diplomatic relations with the country, while in mid-November the World Bank put a loan for an education project on hold.

Tanzania Economic Growth

Rising infrastructure spending together with a healthy expansion in consumer spending should underpin robust GDP growth next year. However, the outlook is clouded by the uncertain policy environment and the banking sector’s heavy burden of bad debts. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to expand 6.4% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and again 6.4% in 2020.

Tanzania Economy Data

Population (million)45.846.747.748.750.0
GDP per capita (USD)9571,031916975-  
GDP (USD bn)43.948.243.747.5-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)  
Consumption (annual variation in %)  
Investment (annual variation in %)4.512.811.612.4-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.9-3.0-3.3-2.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)30.933.837.238.0-  
Money (annual variation in %)  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)16.0115.7516.3915.6618.62
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,5871,7332,1602,1812,211
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,6171,6652,0112,1862,237
Current Account (% of GDP)-11.4-11.0-8.4-4.6-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-5.0-4.8-3.7-2.2-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-5.8-5.7-4.5-2.8-  
Exports (USD billion)  
Imports (USD billion)  
Exports (annual variation in %)-11.7-  
Imports (annual variation in %)6.9-1.0-9.8-14.0-  
International Reserves (USD)
External Debt (% of GDP)  

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Tanzania Facts

Exchange Rate2,3070.0 %Jan 21
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 21

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