Tanzania Economic Forecast

Tanzania Economic Outlook

September 18, 2018

Recent reports released by the Central Bank suggest the economy continued to perform well in the second quarter, although it most likely slowed from last year. Supported by measures taken by the Central Bank to expand liquidity, credit to the private sector accelerated notably in Q2, although a considerable stock of non-performing loans continues to weigh on the banking sector. Moreover, development spending rose sizably in annual terms in the same period, buoying overall public spending which outpaced growth in tax revenues. Coupled with higher prices for oil, however, this translated into higher capital imports and a widening of the current account deficit, accentuated by a poor tobacco harvest which dragged on exports.

Tanzania Economic Growth

Increased public infrastructure investment will support the construction sector and thus GDP growth in what remains of the year and in 2019. Growth will also be fueled by an expansionary monetary policy stance. The high stock of banks’ bad debt represents the main downside risk. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to expand 6.4% in 2018 and 6.5% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s forecast.

Tanzania Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)45.846.747.748.750.0
GDP per capita (USD)9571,031916975-  
GDP (USD bn)43.948.243.747.5-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.36.97.07.0-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)8.54.51.416.6-  
Investment (annual variation in %)4.512.811.612.4-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.9-3.0-3.3-2.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)30.933.837.238.0-  
Money (annual variation in %)17.013.45.311.4-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.64.86.85.04.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)7.96.15.65.25.3
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,5871,7332,1602,1812,211
Policy Interest Rate (%)16.0115.7516.3915.6618.62
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,6171,6652,0112,1862,237
Current Account (% of GDP)-11.4-11.0-8.4-4.6-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-5.0-4.8-3.7-2.2-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-5.8-5.7-4.5-2.8-  
Exports (USD billion)5.35.25.35.7-  
Imports (USD billion)11.011.99.88.5-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-11.7-1.22.46.5-  
Imports (annual variation in %)6.9-1.0-9.8-14.0-  
International Reserves (USD)4.74.44.14.35.9
External Debt (% of GDP)30.130.235.336.5-  

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Tanzania Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield14.850.0 %Sep 20
Exchange Rate2,2850.0 %Sep 20
Stock Market1.50.0 %Sep 18

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