Tanzania Economic Forecast

Tanzania Economic Outlook

June 19, 2018

Available data suggests the economy continued to perform well in the first four months of this year, following a strong 2017. Recent data shows GDP expanded 7.1% last year, broadly matching 2016’s result, mainly on the back of buoyant growth in the mining and quarrying sector and rising spending on commercial buildings and infrastructure. In January–April, the tourism sector performed well; however, banks’ sizeable stock of non-performing loans restrained credit growth. Moreover, the government significantly underspent its budgeted allocations for development projects. In a budget speech in mid-June, the Finance Minister announced that the government will provide temporary corporate tax reductions for new companies in a bid to foster business investment.

Tanzania Economic Growth

Although policy uncertainty in the mining sector remains a clear downside risk, the economy should expand at a solid pace this year. Improved weather conditions are seen sustaining agricultural production, while rising investment in the hydrocarbon sector should buttress industrial activity. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to expand 6.5% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 6.5% again in 2019.

Tanzania Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)45.846.747.748.750.0
GDP per capita (USD)9571,031916975-  
GDP (USD bn)43.948.243.747.5-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.36.97.07.0-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)8.54.51.416.6-  
Investment (annual variation in %)4.512.811.612.4-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.9-3.0-3.3-2.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)30.933.837.238.0-  
Money (annual variation in %)17.013.45.311.4-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.64.86.85.04.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)7.96.15.65.25.3
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,5871,7332,1602,1812,211
Policy Interest Rate (%)16.0115.7516.3915.6618.62
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,6171,6652,0112,1862,237
Current Account (% of GDP)-11.4-11.0-8.4-4.6-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-5.0-4.8-3.7-2.2-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-5.8-5.7-4.5-2.8-  
Exports (USD billion)5.35.25.35.7-  
Imports (USD billion)11.011.99.88.5-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-11.7-1.22.46.5-  
Imports (annual variation in %)6.9-1.0-9.8-14.0-  
International Reserves (USD)4.74.44.14.35.9
External Debt (% of GDP)30.130.235.336.5-  

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Tanzania Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield14.470.0 %Jul 13
Exchange Rate2,2750.0 %Jul 13
Stock Market1.50.0 %Jul 11

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