Tanzania Economic Forecast

Tanzania Economic Outlook

April 16, 2019

The economy expanded at a solid pace last year (2018: +7.0%; 2017: +6.8%), propelled by solid consumer spending amid robust credit growth and declining inflation; growing tourist inflows; and a strong infrastructure push, which spurred construction activity. On the flip side, strong domestic demand fueled imports, which, along with dwindling traditional exports, translated into a notable widening of the current account deficit. Economic momentum likely remained robust in Q1 2019, although seems to have softened from the previous quarter. Available data shows that credit continued to flow steadily in January-February. However, the current account deficit widened in the year ending February due to lower exports and higher imports—owing to the government’s infrastructure push.

Tanzania Economic Growth

Growth is set to ease this year but will remain robust nonetheless. Consumer spending will continue to benefit from rising wages and solid credit growth, while fixed investment is sustained by solid infrastructure spending and mining investment. That said, the current account deficit will remain sizable, while unpredictable policymaking could discourage FDI inflows. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to expand 6.3% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month, and 6.3% again in 2020.

Tanzania Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)45.846.747.748.750.0
GDP per capita (USD)9571,031916975-  
GDP (USD bn)43.948.243.747.5-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.36.97.07.0-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)8.54.51.416.6-  
Investment (annual variation in %)4.512.811.612.4-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.9-3.0-3.3-2.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)30.933.837.238.0-  
Money (annual variation in %)17.013.45.311.4-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.64.86.85.04.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)7.96.15.65.25.3
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,5871,7332,1602,1812,211
Policy Interest Rate (%)16.0115.7516.3915.6618.62
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,6171,6652,0112,1862,237
Current Account (% of GDP)-11.4-11.0-8.4-4.6-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-5.0-4.8-3.7-2.2-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-5.8-5.7-4.5-2.8-  
Exports (USD billion)5.35.25.35.7-  
Imports (USD billion)11.011.99.88.5-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-11.7-1.22.46.5-  
Imports (annual variation in %)6.9-1.0-9.8-14.0-  
International Reserves (USD)4.74.44.14.35.9
External Debt (% of GDP)30.130.235.336.5-  

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Tanzania Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate2,3000.0 %May 13
Stock Market0.10.0 %May 13

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