Tajikistan Economic Forecast

Tajikistan Economic Outlook

April 2, 2019

The economy seems to have entered the year on a weaker footing. The transport sector lost considerable pace in the month, as did capital investment, while the external sector dragged on growth, with exports contracting more severely amid cooling global growth and a more challenging trade environment. On the other hand, the agricultural, industrial and electricity generation sectors picked up in January from the final quarter of last year, while construction activity returned to growth. In other news, top officials from the Central Bank entered the final stage of talks with the IMF on 14 March. A new financial assistance program aimed at strengthening the energy and financial sectors, along with enhancing the monetary policy framework, dominated proceedings.

Tajikistan Economic Growth

The economy is set to record another solid year of growth in 2019, although it is likely to weaken considerably from the previous year on a slowdown in domestic demand. On the upside, the external sector’s performance will likely improve on an expected rebound in exports, likely owing to a base effect. Met the why particular panelists see the economy growing 5.4% in 2019, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 5.5% in 2020.

Tajikistan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)8.18.38.58.78.8
GDP per capita (USD)1,0491,038813806785
GDP (USD bn)8.58.66.97.06.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.46.76.06.97.1
Unemployment Rate2.42.42.22.32.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.30.30.8-1.7-0.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)29.127.534.341.847.8
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)18.63.512.256.736.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.77.35.46.16.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.16.15.76.07.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)5.508.008.0011.0016.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4.775.286.997.888.82
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4.764.936.167.838.55
Current Account (% of GDP)-7.7-3.0-7.0-3.8-0.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.7-0.3-0.5-0.30.0
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.0-3.6-2.5-2.1-1.6
Exports (USD billion)1.21.10.90.91.2
Imports (USD billion)4.14.73.43.02.8
Exports (annual variation in %)-14.4-7.3-17.30.933.3
Imports (annual variation in %)9.113.3-26.4-11.8-8.4
International Reserves (EUR)0.50.40.50.6-  
External Debt (% of GDP)57.160.172.569.9-  

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Tajikistan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate9.440.06 %Apr 12

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