Tajikistan Economic Forecast

Tajikistan Economic Outlook

October 2, 2018

The economy’s robust performance in the first quarter seems to have rolled over into the second quarter. In the first two months of Q2, expanding agricultural output; strong growth in industrial production; increasing capital spending; and robust consumer expenditure, on the back of growing remittances from Russia, supported economic momentum. On the other hand, the external sector dragged more severely on growth, as imports accelerated more sharply than exports. Moreover, Fitch Ratings recently warned that the increasing level of government borrowing and the state’s diminishing ability to pay its debt obligations exposes the country to political risks and potential external financing shocks. Maintaining strong relations with China, the country’s biggest creditor, will be crucial to averting a sudden strain on its access to debt financing.

Tajikistan Economic Growth

The economy should post another year of solid growth in 2019. The ongoing recovery of Russia should lead to a further increase in inflows of remittances, thus supporting private consumption. However, a poor business environment could restrain investment growth. Met the why particular panelists see the economy growing 6.0% in 2018 and 5.9% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

Tajikistan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)8.18.38.58.78.8
GDP per capita (USD)1,0491,038813806785
GDP (USD bn)8.58.66.97.06.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.46.76.06.97.1
Unemployment Rate2.42.42.22.32.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.30.30.8-1.7-0.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)29.127.534.341.847.8
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)18.63.512.256.736.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.77.35.46.16.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.16.15.76.07.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)5.508.008.0011.0016.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4.775.286.997.888.82
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4.764.936.167.838.55
Current Account (% of GDP)-7.7-3.0-7.0-3.8-0.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.7-0.3-0.5-0.30.0
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.0-3.6-2.5-2.1-1.6
Exports (USD billion)1.21.10.90.91.2
Imports (USD billion)4.14.73.43.02.8
Exports (annual variation in %)-14.4-7.3-17.30.933.3
Imports (annual variation in %)9.113.3-26.4-11.8-8.4
International Reserves (EUR)0.50.40.50.6-  
External Debt (% of GDP)57.160.172.569.9-  

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Tajikistan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate9.420.06 %Oct 16

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