Tajikistan Economic Forecast

Tajikistan Economic Outlook

June 4, 2019

The latest cumulative data suggests the economy sustained a strong pace of expansion in January–April. Industrial production grew robustly in the period, thanks to double-digit upturns in manufacturing and mining, while the electricity supply sector lost traction. Activity in the agricultural sector was also buoyant on favorable weather conditions. Meanwhile, on the expenditure side, growth was supported by a surge in fixed investment, underpinned by construction of electric power facilities, while healthy remittance inflows—mainly from Russia—continued to shore up private consumption. On the downside, the external sector weighed on growth owing to flagging demand for cotton and energy exports.

Tajikistan Economic Growth

Growth is expected to moderate this year on softer domestic demand as a weaker business climate and China’s slowdown weigh on investment. Nonetheless, the economy should remain healthy, with Russia’s recovery boosting remittance inflows and supporting private consumption. Met the why particular panelists see the economy growing 5.7% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 5.4% in 2020.

Tajikistan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)8.18.38.58.78.8
GDP per capita (USD)1,0491,038813806785
GDP (USD bn)8.58.66.97.06.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.46.76.06.97.1
Unemployment Rate2.42.42.22.32.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.30.30.8-1.7-0.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)29.127.534.341.847.8
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)18.63.512.256.736.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.77.35.46.16.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.16.15.76.07.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)5.508.008.0011.0016.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4.775.286.997.888.82
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4.764.936.167.838.55
Current Account (% of GDP)-7.7-3.0-7.0-3.8-0.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.7-0.3-0.5-0.30.0
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.0-3.6-2.5-2.1-1.6
Exports (USD billion)1.21.10.90.91.2
Imports (USD billion)4.14.73.43.02.8
Exports (annual variation in %)-14.4-7.3-17.30.933.3
Imports (annual variation in %)9.113.3-26.4-11.8-8.4
International Reserves (EUR)0.50.40.50.6-  
External Debt (% of GDP)57.160.172.569.9-  

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Tajikistan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate9.440.06 %Jun 13

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