Tajikistan Economic Forecast

Tajikistan Economic Outlook

February 5, 2019

The economy likely slowed in the second half of 2018, following a robust first half. A contraction in exports amid slowing global growth and reduced inflows of remittances from Russia—likely owing to the depreciation of the ruble and tepid economic growth in the country—led the deterioration. Moreover, weaker activity in the agricultural and construction sectors also weighed on growth. On 21 January, Prime Minister Kohir Rasulzoda affirmed that GDP growth edged up to 7.3% in 2018, although an official release from the Central Bank has yet to confirm this. Meanwhile, the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development announced USD 1 million funds for small businesses, which will be targeted to regions with a dearth of banking services.

Tajikistan Economic Growth

Growth is expected to remain robust in 2019, thanks to strong infrastructure spending. The economy will likely lose some pace from the previous year, however, owing to Russia’s lackluster growth, a challenging business environment, and a fragile banking sector. Met the why particular panelists see the economy growing 5.6% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 5.5% in 2020.

Tajikistan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)8.18.38.58.78.8
GDP per capita (USD)1,0491,038813806785
GDP (USD bn)8.58.66.97.06.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.46.76.06.97.1
Unemployment Rate2.42.42.22.32.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.30.30.8-1.7-0.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)29.127.534.341.847.8
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)18.63.512.256.736.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.77.35.46.16.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.16.15.76.07.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)5.508.008.0011.0016.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4.775.286.997.888.82
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4.764.936.167.838.55
Current Account (% of GDP)-7.7-3.0-7.0-3.8-0.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.7-0.3-0.5-0.30.0
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.0-3.6-2.5-2.1-1.6
Exports (USD billion)1.21.10.90.91.2
Imports (USD billion)4.14.73.43.02.8
Exports (annual variation in %)-14.4-7.3-17.30.933.3
Imports (annual variation in %)9.113.3-26.4-11.8-8.4
International Reserves (EUR)0.50.40.50.6-  
External Debt (% of GDP)57.160.172.569.9-  

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Tajikistan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate9.440.06 %Feb 14

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