Tajikistan Economic Forecast

Tajikistan Economic Outlook

November 27, 2018

Available data for July and August point to weaker growth in the third quarter. Export growth lost traction, while imports grew at a faster average pace due to a surge in capital investment. Moreover, both the industrial and agricultural sectors slowed in Q3, contracting in July before rebounding in August. On the upside, strong remittance inflows and rising wages have propelled private consumption. Moreover, on 16 November, the country opened a USD 3.9 billion dam, which is expected to double energy output and help alleviate persistent shortages.

Tajikistan Economic Growth

Strong growth is expected again next year with improving labor market dynamics, coupled with solid remittances—led by Russia’s ongoing economic recovery—driving healthy expansion in private consumption. A less supportive external environment owing to tighter global financial conditions, along with the escalating tit-for-tat trade war, continue to pose downside risks. Met the why particular panelists see the economy growing 5.5% in 2019, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 5.4% in 2020.

Tajikistan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)8.18.38.58.78.8
GDP per capita (USD)1,0491,038813806785
GDP (USD bn)8.58.66.97.06.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.46.76.06.97.1
Unemployment Rate2.42.42.22.32.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.30.30.8-1.7-0.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)29.127.534.341.847.8
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)18.63.512.256.736.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.77.35.46.16.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.16.15.76.07.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)5.508.008.0011.0016.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4.775.286.997.888.82
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4.764.936.167.838.55
Current Account (% of GDP)-7.7-3.0-7.0-3.8-0.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.7-0.3-0.5-0.30.0
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.0-3.6-2.5-2.1-1.6
Exports (USD billion)1.21.10.90.91.2
Imports (USD billion)4.14.73.43.02.8
Exports (annual variation in %)-14.4-7.3-17.30.933.3
Imports (annual variation in %)9.113.3-26.4-11.8-8.4
International Reserves (EUR)0.50.40.50.6-  
External Debt (% of GDP)57.160.172.569.9-  

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Tajikistan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate9.420.06 %Nov 29

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