Tajikistan Economic Forecast

Tajikistan Economic Outlook

July 31, 2018

In the first quarter of this year, the economy was buoyed by growing inflows of remittances from Russia and a robust mining sector. The positive economic performance, together with targeted measures by the Central Bank, have contributed to a decline in the stock of non-performing loans; however, the percentage of bad loans remains remarkably high. Available data for Q2 points to another quarter of sustained growth: Industrial production continued to increase robustly in April–May, and exports rose at a solid rate in the same period. However, imports outpaced exports, as capital spending surged in annual terms, leading to a wider trade deficit.

Tajikistan Economic Growth

Rising remittance inflows and contained inflation should buttress consumer spending this year. Along with healthy private consumption growth, higher public infrastructure spending is also seen underpinning the economy. Growth will, however, likely moderate, as export growth is expected to slow from last year’s outstanding performance. Met the why particular panelists see the economy growing 5.9% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 5.8% in 2019.

Tajikistan Economy Data

Population (million)
GDP per capita (USD)1,0491,038813806785
GDP (USD bn)
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Unemployment Rate2.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)
Public Debt (% of GDP)29.127.534.341.847.8
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)18.63.512.256.736.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)5.508.008.0011.0016.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4.775.286.997.888.82
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4.764.936.167.838.55
Current Account (% of GDP)-7.7-3.0-7.0-3.8-0.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.7-0.3-0.5-0.30.0
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.0-3.6-2.5-2.1-1.6
Exports (USD billion)
Imports (USD billion)
Exports (annual variation in %)-14.4-7.3-17.30.933.3
Imports (annual variation in %)9.113.3-26.4-11.8-8.4
International Reserves (EUR)  
External Debt (% of GDP)  

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Tajikistan Facts

Exchange Rate9.420.06 %Aug 15

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