Tajikistan Economic Forecast

Tajikistan Economic Outlook

May 8, 2018

Last year’s robust growth momentum spilled over into Q1, in which the economy grew 7.0% year-on-year (Q4 2017: +7.1% yoy). Capital investment rebounded, and industrial production grew robustly, although the pace of expansion moderated from the previous quarter. The external sector dragged more on growth, however, as imports climbed more rapidly than exports. In recent developments, the National Bank of Tajikistan noted in late April that the sharp devaluation of the Russian ruble against the U.S. dollar has led to a shortage of dollar reserves. Remittances in rubles are used by lending agencies to purchase dollars in Russia’s financial markets.

Tajikistan Economic Growth

Met the why particular panelists downgraded GDP growth forecast by a notch to 5.6% in 2018. Growth is expected to moderate from last year, due to a marked slowdown in exports that will translate into a drag on growth by the external sector. That said, a healthy stream of remittances, along with higher wages stemming from a tighter labor market, should support private consumption and keep the economy growing at a solid pace. Our panelists see the economy growing 5.5% in 2019.

Tajikistan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)8.18.38.58.78.8
GDP per capita (USD)1,0491,038813806-  
GDP (USD bn)8.58.66.97.0-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.46.76.06.9-  
Unemployment Rate2.42.42.22.3-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.30.30.8-  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)29.127.333.9-  -  
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)18.63.512.256.7-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.77.25.36.1-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.16.15.76.0-  
Policy Interest Rate (%)5.508.008.0011.00-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4.775.286.997.88-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4.764.936.167.83-  
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.7-3.0-8.7-  -  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.1-0.3-0.6-  -  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.0-3.6-2.5-2.1-  
Exports (USD billion)1.21.10.90.9-  
Imports (USD billion)4.14.73.43.0-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-14.4-7.3-17.30.9-  
Imports (annual variation in %)9.113.3-26.4-11.8-  
International Reserves (EUR)0.30.20.10.1-  
External Debt (% of GDP)25.724.331.832.6-  

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Tajikistan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate8.980.06 %May 21
Exchange Rate8.980.06 %May 21

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