Taiwan Economic Outlook
September 18, 2018After helping the economy reach a three-year high growth rate in the second quarter, the external sector appears to have significantly weakened in the third quarter. Export growth slowed for the third consecutive month in August, although an improvement in export orders in July could indicate a pickup of demand in September—coinciding with the scheduled release of new iPhone models—and beyond. Meanwhile, domestic demand should remain robust in H2 2018, supported by a tight labor market and increasingly loose fiscal policy: Only a third of the TWD 117 billion infrastructure package approved last year had been executed as of June, suggesting government spending will accelerate throughout H2. Furthermore, on 16 August, the cabinet approved a second TWD 228 billion infrastructure plan, with TWD 115.3 billion and TWD 122.2 billion allocated for 2019 and 2020 respectively.
Taiwan Economic GrowthThough higher fiscal spending should provide some support, growth appears poised to moderate somewhat in H2 2018 and beyond. This is mainly due to the external sector being affected by a likely slowdown in the tech cycle and the rapidly escalating U.S.-China trade dispute—which could also weigh on investment. Other downside risks include heightened migration of high-skilled workers and increased diplomatic tensions with China, upon whom Taiwan is heavily reliant. Met the why particular panelists forecast GDP growth of 2.6% this year and 2.3% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.
Taiwan Economy Data
5 years of Taiwan economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||0.87||1.28 %||Sep 21|
|Exchange Rate||30.71||0.07 %||Sep 24|
|Stock Market||11,972||0.37 %||Sep 21|
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Taiwan Economic News
September 7, 2018
Merchandise exports grew a paltry 1.9% in annual terms in August, decelerating from the 4.7% expansion registered in July and markedly below analysts’ expectations of a 5.1% increase.
September 5, 2018
Consumer prices fell 0.07% in August from the previous month, swinging from the 0.34% increase recorded in July.
September 3, 2018
The Taiwanese manufacturing sector once again lost steam in August, the fifth time it has done so in the past six months.
August 23, 2018
Industrial output growth expanded 4.4% in annual terms in July, accelerating from June’s upwardly revised 0.5% increase (previously reported: +0.4% year-on-year). The stronger print in July was chiefly driven by a pick-up in manufacturing output—which represents more than 90% of total industrial production.
August 7, 2018
Merchandise exports grew 4.7% in annual terms in July, sharply decelerating from the 9.4% expansion registered in June and coming in below market expectations of a 7.0% increase.