Taiwan Economic Outlook
January 22, 2019All available data indicates the economy continued to weaken markedly in the fourth quarter after starting to slow in the third quarter. This loss of momentum is most likely to persist into 2019, as the country grapples with the impact of a slowdown in China and heightened trade frictions. The manufacturing PMI entered contractionary territory in October and continued to weaken throughout the quarter, weighed notably by lower new demand as a direct result of the U.S.-China trade war. Consumer confidence also fell every month in the quarter. Meanwhile, export growth was nearly flat year-on-year in Q4 as Taiwan’s flagship trade sector suffered both from lower Asian demand and from a downturn in the tech cycle, notably for smartphones. Export order data for November also signals the sector will likely remain weak in Q1. On 11 January, Parliament approved the government’s TWD 2.0 trillion budget for 2019. On the political front, tensions with mainland China escalated in recent weeks after Xi Jinping’s declaration on 2 January that China would not discount the use of military force to complete reunification with the island. Unsurprisingly, this drew a swift rebuke from President Tsai.
Taiwan Economic GrowthEconomic activity will likely be hit by growing headwinds this year, due to its significant exposure to the Sino-American trade war—especially so in the tech sector. Taiwan’s high dependence on China is also a key vulnerability, owing to risks of a mainland slowdown and rising cross-strait tensions. Nonetheless, a TWD 228 billion infrastructure package approved for 2019 and 2020 should support investment momentum this year and next. Met the why particular panelists forecast GDP growth of 2.2% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.1% in 2020.
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|Bond Yield||0.87||1.28 %||Jan 30|
|Exchange Rate||30.72||0.07 %||Jan 30|
|Stock Market||9,932||0.37 %||Jan 30|
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Taiwan Economic News
April 9, 2019
Consumer prices fell 0.62% in March from the previous month, contrasting the 0.99% rise registered in February.
Taiwan: Exports post fifth consecutive contraction in March; orders suggest weakness will persist in Q2
April 8, 2019
Merchandise exports fell 4.4% in annual terms in March, logging the fifth consecutive decline following February’s 8.8% dip.
April 1, 2019
Operating conditions in the Taiwanese manufacturing sector continued to deteriorate in March, but at a much softer pace than in previous months.
March 25, 2019
Industrial output fell 1.8% year-on-year in February, worsening from the revised 1.1% contraction logged in January (previously reported: -1.9% year-on-year).
March 21, 2019
Taiwan’s Central Bank of the Republic of China (CBRC) stood pat for the 11th consecutive quarter at its 21 March monetary policy meeting.