Taiwan Economic Outlook
November 13, 2018The economy slowed sharply in the third quarter, mainly on the back of a marked loss of momentum in the all-important external sector and a slowdown in private consumption growth, as consumer confidence receded in the quarter while the trade war between the U.S. and China continued to escalate. Looking at the fourth quarter, available data suggests growth momentum will remain feeble. In October, the PMI fell into contraction territory for the first time in nearly two-and-a-half years amid falling orders and production. Meanwhile, export data was also weak, particularly due to subdued demand from mainland China—a trend that should continue throughout Q4 given the low growth from export orders logged in September. Though consumer demand may remain muted in the quarter, it will nonetheless be supported by a tight labor market. In addition, higher public infrastructure spending will likely help buttress investment in Q4 and beyond.
Taiwan Economic GrowthGrowth will likely soften in 2019 and 2020 due to weaker export growth owing to the U.S.-China trade war—with a further escalation liable to severely hamper Taiwan’s flagship electronics. Nevertheless, the economy ought to be supported by resilient private spending and a sharp uptick in public expenditures, especially following the recent approval of a TWD 228 billion infrastructure package for 2019 and 2020. On top of the trade war, rising cross-strait tensions and the migration of skilled workers pose major downside risks. Met the why particular panelists forecast GDP growth of 2.2% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.0% in 2020.
Taiwan Economy Data
5 years of Taiwan economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Get a sample report showing all the data and analysis covered in our Regional, Country and Commodities reports.
|Bond Yield||0.91||1.28 %||Dec 11|
|Exchange Rate||30.92||0.07 %||Dec 11|
|Stock Market||9,648||0.37 %||Dec 11|
Start Your Free Trial
Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.
Taiwan Economic News
December 7, 2018
Merchandise exports fell 3.4% in annual terms in November, markedly contrasting the 7.3% expansion logged in October, and falling short of market analysts’ expectations of a 1.3% growth print.
December 3, 2018
Operating conditions in the Taiwanese manufacturing sector deteriorated for the second consecutive month in November, as demand conditions continued to weaken.
November 23, 2018
Industrial output growth expanded 8.3% year-on-year in October, surging from September’s upwardly revised 1.6% print (previously reported: +1.5% year-on-year).
November 7, 2018
Merchandise exports grew 7.3% in annual terms in October, picking up markedly from the 2.6% expansion registered in September, but nevertheless missing market analyst expectations of an 8.0% growth print.
November 6, 2018
Consumer prices rose 0.08% in October from the previous month, down from a 0.17% uptick in September.