Switzerland Economic Forecast

Switzerland Economic Outlook

August 28, 2018

The Swiss economy appears to have remained in excellent shape over the second quarter, although recent data indicates a modest deceleration heading into H2 2018. Economic activity was likely supported by a decade-low unemployment rate over the quarter, buttressing private consumption, as well as by a solid performance from the manufacturing sector, with the average PMI reading in the quarter remaining much higher than its long-term average. However, the forward-looking KOF business sentiment indicator’s average reading in Q2 reached a near three-year low, while consumer confidence for Q3 dropped sharply, which indicates a loss of momentum is likely in the third quarter. Capacity utilization constraints in the manufacturing sector also remain a major problem: The July PMI showed both delivery times and input prices continued to rise rapidly, which could limit growth in the sector going forward.

Switzerland Economic Growth

Growth is set to climb higher this year thanks to a tight labor market supporting private spending, and favorable domestic credit conditions, which should buttress capital expenditures. Although the external sector should continue to post a solid performance, it will likely be impacted by moderating global growth and rising trade tensions in coming quarters. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP growth of 2.2% this year, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 1.8% next year.

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Switzerland Facts

Bond Yield0.046.27 %Sep 24
Exchange Rate0.96-0.54 %Sep 24
Stock Market8,946-0.82 %Sep 24

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