Switzerland Economic Forecast

Switzerland Economic Outlook

December 20, 2018

The economy floundered in Q3 due to falling exports and weaker domestic growth, while Q4 data has thus far been mixed. The KOF economic barometer fell again in November and the unemployment rate inched up in the same month. Nevertheless, retail sales rebounded in October and the manufacturing PMI recovered in November. Meanwhile, lengthy negotiations with the EU over an institutional framework agreement, to closer align Swiss law with EU regulations, have become more contentious in recent weeks. On 7 December the Federal Council refused to approve the draft agreement, and instead vied to hold a public consultation over key objections, particularly over concerns that it would infringe upon Switzerland’s sovereignty and erode wages. In turn, the EU had previously threatened to let the Swiss stock exchange equivalence—which allows for cross-border trading—expire in January if lawmakers rejected the treaty but has recently extended the deadline to mid-2019. Failure to reach an agreement could result in the loss of substantial trading activity, which would deal a blow to the Alpine economy.

Switzerland Economic Growth

Economic momentum is expected to ebb in 2019 on weakening external demand due to slower regional growth. Moreover, the licensing-revenue impetus from major sporting events in 2018 will dissipate. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP to grow 1.6% next year, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and see GDP expanding 1.6% again in 2020.

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Switzerland Facts

Bond Yield-0.236.27 %Jan 21
Exchange Rate1.00-0.54 %Jan 21
Stock Market9,011-0.82 %Jan 21

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