Switzerland Economic Forecast

Switzerland Economic Outlook

April 30, 2018

Available indicators for the first quarter suggest last year’s momentum persisted at the outset of 2018, although survey data in March signaled some recent softness. Manufacturing hit a speedbump in the month as output slowed, dragging on firms’ sentiment. Both the Economic Barometer and the PMI remained, however, comfortably above their long-term averages, hinting that the recent economic upturn still has legs. Furthermore, unemployment ticked down through March, boding well for household spending in the quarter. Meanwhile, exports appeared to signal a recovery, likely benefiting from the further weakening of the franc through March. Recent gains are building on the comeback in economic activity late last year—led by improvements in spending and investment—recently hailed as the end of “Frankenshock,” the malaise that fell over the economy when the Swiss National Bank (SNB) lifted its currency cap three years ago.

Switzerland Economic Growth

Buoyant external demand and a further depreciation of the franc (against the euro) are expected to fuel export-driven growth this year, which should support tighter labor market dynamics and foster greater business investment. Meanwhile, the related rise in real wages should lift household spending. Downside risks to the outlook, while relatively limited, include the possibility of a safe-haven rush into franc-denominated assets—which would send the franc higher and hit the external sector—and continued uncertainty over the future of corporate tax reform. Met the why particular panelists expect GDP growth of 2.1% this year, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 1.8% next year.

Switzerland Economy Data

Population (million)
GDP per capita (USD)84,48586,76183,83280,183-  
GDP (USD bn)679706691668-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)  
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)  
Investment (annual variation in %)  
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)15.3-  
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)13.5-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)0.81.4-2.5-0.1-  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)1.91.0-1.2-1.8-  
Unemployment Rate3.  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.2-0.20.2-  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)34.234.733.4-  -  
Money (annual variation in %)  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.1-0.3-1.30.0-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.20.0-1.1-0.4-  
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)0.3-0.8-3.7-1.3-  
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.13-0.25-0.75-0.75-  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)20.29.5-1.8-6.8-  
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)  
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)  
Current Account (% of GDP)11.58.711.311.6-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)77.961.777.870.6-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)28.536.238.135.7-  

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Switzerland Facts

Bond Yield0.116.27 %May 21
Bond Yield0.116.27 %May 21
Exchange Rate1.00-0.54 %May 21
Exchange Rate1.00-0.54 %May 21
Stock Market8,911-0.82 %May 18
Stock Market8,911-0.82 %May 18

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