Sweden Economic Forecast

Sweden Economic Outlook

November 20, 2018

Although firm GDP figures are still outstanding, the economy appeared to lose steam in the third quarter. The services PMI averaged lower than in the second quarter on slower growth in new orders (although comfortably remained in expansionary territory), while annual industrial production, retail sales growth and previously stellar employment growth all dipped. The final quarter has begun in subdued fashion: In October, both the manufacturing and services PMIs fell, while the economic tendency indicator dropped on a decline in optimism across sectors. On the political front, the country remains without a government over two months after general elections on 9 September. With the leaders of the center-right Moderate Party and center-left Social Democrats—the two largest groupings in parliament—failing to garner the support of a majority of MPs, in mid-November the speaker gave Annie Loof, leader of the Centre Party, the task of breaking the political deadlock.

Sweden Economic Growth

Looking ahead, growth prospects are bright, thanks to strong fixed investment and exports, and faster wage growth. However, weaker residential investment will likely drag on activity, while elevated household debt poses a downside risk. Met the why particular panelists see GDP rising 2.1% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 1.9% in 2020.

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Sweden Facts

Bond Yield0.48-4.79 %Dec 11
Exchange Rate9.09-0.20 %Dec 11
Stock Market1,4650.14 %Dec 11

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