Sri Lanka Economic Forecast

Sri Lanka Economic Outlook

September 18, 2018

Recently-released data continued to hint at softer growth in the second quarter. Merchandise exports weakened in June on subdued agricultural and industrial exports, while merchandise imports lost steam. Consequently, the trade deficit widened further in June compared to the same month last year. On a more positive note, industrial production growth accelerated in July, suggesting momentum could pick up in the third quarter. In other news, intensifying political tensions have led to massive protests by supporters of the opposition party against delayed provincial elections. Meanwhile, the rupee continued to tumble against the dollar and hit a fresh record low on 14 September.

Sri Lanka Economic Growth

The economy is expected to strengthen over the next two years, supported by robust services activity. However, the country’s high external debt servicing requirements is a downside risk to the outlook. Met the why particular panelists expect growth of 4.0% in 2018 and 4.5% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s forecast.

Sri Lanka Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)20.620.821.021.221.4
GDP per capita (USD)3,6093,8203,8393,8424,063
GDP (USD bn)74.379.380.581.587.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.45.05.04.53.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)7.03.97.8-3.30.6
Investment (annual variation in %)-8.811.53.827.117.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-0.56.19.2-2.84.3
Unemployment Rate4.44.34.74.44.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.2-6.2-7.0-5.4-5.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)71.872.278.579.679.4
Money (annual variation in %)18.013.117.218.917.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.71.34.64.57.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)7.02.82.24.06.6
Policy Interest Rate (%)8.508.507.508.508.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)171.6173.5151.0161.8172.4
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)129.1130.6136.1146.2152.5
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.4-2.5-2.3-2.1-2.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.5-2.0-1.9-1.7-2.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)-7.6-8.3-8.4-8.9-9.6
Exports (USD billion)11.411.111.611.311.4
Imports (USD billion)18.019.418.919.221.0
Exports (annual variation in %)6.37.1-5.2-2.311.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-6.27.9-2.51.39.4
International Reserves (USD)7.58.27.36.08.0
External Debt (% of GDP)53.754.155.757.059.5

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Sri Lanka Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate168.80.02 %Sep 20

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