Sri Lanka Economic Forecast

Sri Lanka Economic Outlook

June 19, 2018

Despite growing a healthy 3.2% year-on-year in the first quarter, the economy has started showing signs of strain. Capital outflows due to expectations of faster-than-expected U.S. monetary policy normalization led the rupee to lose value since late April; it hit an all-time low against the dollar on 13 June. The Central Bank has stayed on the margins so far, stating in May that there is no need to intervene in the forex markets, as the depreciation is not indicative of weak economic fundamentals at home, and international reserves are expected to increase. The country is expected to receive over USD 252 million from the IMF after satisfactorily completing the fifth review under the Extended Fund Facility program and over USD 1.0 billion in loan payments.

Sri Lanka Economic Growth

Solid growth in domestic demand and a recovery in the agricultural sector should buoy the economy this year and next. Met the why particular panelists expect growth of 4.2% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 4.6% in 2019.

Sri Lanka Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)20.620.821.021.221.4
GDP per capita (USD)3,6093,8203,8393,8424,063
GDP (USD bn)74.379.380.581.587.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.45.05.04.53.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)7.03.97.8-3.30.6
Investment (annual variation in %)-8.811.53.827.117.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-0.56.19.2-2.84.3
Unemployment Rate4.44.34.74.44.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.2-6.2-7.0-5.4-5.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)71.872.278.579.679.4
Money (annual variation in %)18.013.117.218.917.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.71.34.64.57.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)7.02.82.24.06.6
Policy Interest Rate (%)8.508.507.508.508.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)171.6173.5151.0161.8172.4
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)129.1130.6136.1146.2152.5
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.4-2.5-2.3-2.1-2.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.5-2.0-1.9-1.7-2.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)-7.6-8.3-8.4-8.9-9.6
Exports (USD billion)11.411.111.611.311.4
Imports (USD billion)18.019.418.919.221.0
Exports (annual variation in %)6.37.1-5.2-2.311.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-6.27.9-2.51.39.4
International Reserves (USD)7.58.27.36.08.0
External Debt (% of GDP)53.754.155.757.059.5

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Sri Lanka Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate159.60.02 %Jul 13

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