Slovenia Economic Forecast

Slovenia Economic Outlook

September 25, 2018

The economy lost momentum for the second consecutive quarter in Q2. Weaker domestic demand drove the downturn, with higher inflation chipping away at households’ purchasing power. Conversely, exports soared which translated into a positive contribution to growth from the external sector. Available data from the third quarter suggests the economy’s pace of expansion remains resilient: In July, industrial production growth was strong, albeit losing some ground from the previous month, and retail sales also picked up mildly amid moderating inflation and rising wages. Meanwhile, survey-based data indicates a downbeat picture: Consumer confidence sank to a one-year low in August, while business sentiment remained at July’s 14-month low. On 13 September, Slovenia’s parliament approved the country’s first minority government—a center-left coalition led by Prime Minister Marjan Šarec. Economic policy priorities include establishing a more business-friendly environment and improving the national health system. Divergent stances on a number of policies among the coalition parties, however, have raised concerns that the minority government might struggle to survive the entire four-year term.

Slovenia Economic Growth

The economy is expected to lose steam next year, due to an anticipated deterioration in domestic demand and a moderation in export growth. Nevertheless, a tight labor market and subdued inflationary pressures should keep private consumption expanding at a healthy pace. On the other hand, heightened trade tensions are likely to suppress demand for exports, causing a downturn in the external sector. Met the why particular panelists project GDP will expand 4.4% in 2018. In 2019, the panel sees GDP growth of 3.4%, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.

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Slovenia Facts

Bond Yield1.16-0.79 %Oct 16
Exchange Rate1.160.65 %Oct 16
Stock Market818-0.30 %Oct 16

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