Slovenia Economic Forecast

Slovenia Economic Outlook

November 20, 2018

The latest data suggests the economy expanded robustly in the third quarter. Average retail sales growth accelerated in Q3 compared to the previous period, indicating an upturn in private consumption amid low levels of inflation and unemployment. Export growth remained strong in the quarter but lost pace from Q2, likely owing to the widespread downturn in the Eurozone. Heading into Q4, consumer confidence improved slightly in October, although stayed in negative territory, while business sentiment strengthened—which should bode well for fixed investment. On 14 November, the country conducted an initial public offering for the partial privatization of one of the country’s largest state-owned banks, Nova Ljubljanska Banka (NLB), valuing the sale at EUR 1.03 billion (USD 1.17 billion). The country will aim to sell a further stake by the end of 2019, although will retain a 25% holding in order to influence future key decisions within the bank.

Slovenia Economic Growth

Growth is expected to weaken next year as exports decelerate, following the lead of anemic growth more broadly in the Eurozone. Fixed investment is also expected to moderate amid less favorable financing conditions as the European Central Bank moves to tighten its monetary policy stance. That said, a tighter labor market and restrained inflationary pressures should boost private consumption. Met the why particular panelists project GDP will expand 3.4% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, before slowing to 2.9% in 2020.

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Slovenia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield1.11-0.79 %Nov 29
Exchange Rate1.140.65 %Nov 29
Stock Market818-0.30 %Nov 29

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