Slovenia Economic Forecast

Slovenia Economic Outlook

April 30, 2018

Economic data for the first quarter points to robust, but more moderate, growth compared to the previous quarter’s near-decade high. Retail sales contracted throughout the quarter, and industrial output grew at a slightly slower pace in the first two months of the year compared to the previous quarter. Survey-based data corroborates the picture of an easing trend as business confidence lost ground in the quarter. On the other hand, labor market conditions remained tight, with unemployment falling to a near nine-year low in February amid a rebound in consumer confidence. Prospects for the next quarter appear brighter as both business sentiment and consumer confidence improved in April. In the political arena, an early general election has been set for 3 June following the abrupt resignation of Prime Minister Miro Cerar over a legal hurdle to a government railway project. While center-left candidate Marjan Sarec has been leading in the polls, the race is expected to be tight and could yield a situation that will make it difficult to form a government.

Slovenia Economic Growth

Met the why particular panelists project GDP will expand a buoyant 4.4% in 2018, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. Structural changes in the labor market should drive a mild pick-up in private consumption amid low levels of inflation. However, sluggish efforts to restructure state-owned enterprises will continue to constrain the economy’s growth potential. Next year, growth is seen at 3.4%.

Slovenia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)2.12.12.12.12.1
GDP per capita (EUR)17,44518,11318,69619,268-  
GDP (EUR bn)35.937.338.639.8-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-1.13.12.32.5-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)-4.11.90.42.9-  
Investment (annual variation in %)3.21.41.0-3.1-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-0.91.75.27.6-  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-3.70.01.04.5-  
Unemployment Rate11.29.79.08.0-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-15.1-5.4-2.9-1.8-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)71.080.983.179.7-  
Money (annual variation in %)-1.36.75.07.7-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.70.1-0.50.5-  
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)1.90.4-0.8-0.2-  
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)0.0-0.6-0.2-1.4-  
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.250.05-  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.381.21-  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.331.33-  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)4.86.24.45.3-  
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)1.72.31.72.1-  
Trade Balance (EUR billion)0.71.21.41.5-  
Exports (EUR billion)21.723.024.025.0-  
Imports (EUR billion)21.021.822.623.5-  
Exports (annual variation in %)1.96.04.34.2-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-1.43.83.74.0-  

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Slovenia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield1.11-0.79 %May 21
Bond Yield1.11-0.79 %May 21
Exchange Rate1.180.65 %May 21
Exchange Rate1.180.65 %May 21
Stock Market898-0.30 %May 21
Stock Market898-0.30 %May 21

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