Slovenia Economic Forecast

Slovenia Economic Outlook

May 28, 2019

Sequential data paints a mixed picture for economic activity in Q1, after having slowed in Q4 2018 amid weaker capital spending. On the one hand, industrial output strengthened in the quarter, defying the general weakness seen in the Eurozone overall. In turn, merchandise exports were buoyant, hinting that net trade may again provide a boost to overall growth in Q1. On the other hand, despite faster real wage growth and consumers turning less pessimistic compared to Q4 2018, it seems that domestic demand still weakened somewhat as suggested by retail sales and imports both losing pace in the quarter. Turning to Q2, available data has been similarly downbeat: Economic sentiment dipped to the lowest level in over two-and-a-half years in April, dragged down by deteriorating confidence in the industrial and retail trade sectors.

Slovenia Economic Growth

The economy is seen losing momentum this year as weaker external demand weighs on industrial activity and thus export growth. Nevertheless, the overall expansion should remain strong. Particularly, still-solid fixed investment and robust consumer spending, thanks to the tight labor market and the minimum and public sector wage hikes, should buttress growth. Met the why particular analysts expect growth of 3.3% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.8% in 2020.

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Slovenia Facts

Bond Yield0.33-0.79 %Jun 13
Exchange Rate1.130.65 %Jun 13
Stock Market870-0.30 %Jun 13

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