Slovenia Economic Forecast

Slovenia Economic Outlook

July 24, 2018

Available data indicates that the economy continued to expand at a steady pace in the second quarter. Despite a slowdown in the Eurozone and increasing trade tensions, export growth remained in the double digits in April and May, which aided a healthy showing by the industrial sector. Moreover, retail sales rebounded robustly in May, as the strong wage growth seen in Q1 likely carried over into the second quarter, thanks to a tight labor market. Survey-based data signaled upbeat prospects for the end of Q2, with consumer confidence swinging back into positive territory, and business sentiment rising in June. Signs of overheating in the housing market are appearing, however, as prices jumped more than 13% year-on-year in Q1. Meanwhile, risks of prolonged political deadlock continue to mount as the center-right Slovenian Democratic Party cancelled invitations to coalition talks on 16 July. The center-left List party of Marjan Sarec, which emerged as the runner-up in the 3 June election, is expected to try to form a coalition of six parties, although the challenge in doing so makes early elections a likely outcome.

Slovenia Economic Growth

Another year of strong economic growth is expected, powered by a strong expansion in investment aided by a more rapid disbursement of EU funds, and a healthy upturn in private consumption underpinned by a tighter labor market against the backdrop of low inflationary pressures. Growth is expected to moderate from last year, however, due to an anticipated slowdown in exports. Met the why particular panelists project GDP will expand 4.5% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and a more moderate 3.5% in 2019.

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Slovenia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield0.88-0.79 %Aug 15
Exchange Rate1.130.65 %Aug 15
Stock Market878-0.30 %Aug 14

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