Slovakia Economic Forecast

Slovakia Economic Outlook

September 25, 2018

A second estimate of national accounts shows that GDP growth strengthened in the second quarter, posting the strongest reading in two-and-a-half years. The expansion benefited from an outstanding showing from the external sector and surging fixed investment, both of which can be attributed to the buoyant performance of the car industry. According to available data, the economy appears to have remained reasonably robust in the third quarter. In July, the unemployment rate reached a new multi-year low, while growth in retail sales jumped; this, coupled with some improvement in consumer confidence, suggests household spending could have accelerated in Q3 following a feeble second quarter. Moreover, in the same month, exports continued to surge and construction activity remained vigorous. However, industrial production weakened in July, as was observed across the Eurozone, while sentiment in the industrial sector deteriorated in August.

Slovakia Economic Growth

Growth should remain robust next year, underpinned by solid macroeconomic fundamentals. Consumer spending will be boosted by a solid labor market, while fixed investment should continue to benefit from a strong car industry. Moreover, fiscal consolidation is set to continue. Upside risks stem from a relocation of factories to central Europe following Brexit, while escalating trade tensions cloud the outlook. Met the why particular panelists project GDP will expand 3.8% in 2018 and 3.6% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s estimate.

Slovakia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)5.45.45.45.45.4
GDP per capita (EUR)13,70714,04914,55414,95715,648
GDP (EUR bn)74.276.178.981.285.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.52.83.93.33.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)-0.81.42.32.63.7
Investment (annual variation in %)-0.93.019.8-8.33.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.23.06.03.83.1
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)0.13.61.72.16.0
Unemployment Rate14.213.211.59.78.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.7-2.7-2.7-2.2-1.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)54.753.552.351.850.9
Money (annual variation in %)6.25.211.15.26.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.4-0.1-0.50.21.9
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)1.5-0.1-0.3-0.51.4
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-0.1-3.5-4.3-0.28.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.250.050.050.00.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.381.211.091.051.20
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.331.331.111.111.13
Current Account (% of GDP)1.91.0-1.7-1.4-2.2
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)1.40.9-1.4-1.2-1.8
Trade Balance (EUR billion)4.24.73.33.63.2
Exports (EUR billion)64.264.767.770.075.1
Imports (EUR billion)59.960.064.466.471.9
Exports (annual variation in %)3.30.94.63.57.2
Imports (annual variation in %)2.30.17.23.18.3

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Slovakia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield0.73-4.12 %Oct 16
Exchange Rate1.160.65 %Oct 16
Stock Market3360.0 %Oct 16

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