Slovakia Economic Forecast

Slovakia Economic Outlook

November 20, 2018

The economy posted another rapid expansion in the third quarter, and once again strongly outperformed the Eurozone average. Investment in the automobile sector and robust inflows of EU funds likely buttressed fixed investment in Q3, while a tight labor market and solid wage gains are expected to have fueled consumer spending. Heading into the fourth quarter, British carmaker Jaguar Land Rover opened a new car plant at the end of October. The new factory has a production capacity of 150,000 vehicles per year and is poised to fuel exports in the quarters ahead. On a less positive note, business confidence hit a nine-month low in October, probably affected by a weaker economic environment in the country’s main trading partners, including Germany. In other news, in late October the Central Bank decided to keep the capital buffer for banks steady at 1.50%—first introduced in 2016 in an attempt to prevent overheating and credit bubbles.

Slovakia Economic Growth

The economy is projected to maintain a healthy pace of growth next year. Although fixed investment growth is set to cool due to the completion of industrial facilities in 2018, consumer spending will remain buoyant, underpinned by a further tightening in labor market conditions, rising wages and inflows of immigrant workers. Robust foreign demand should support the automotive sector, although a marked cooling in the EU economy could shave some decimals off growth. Met the why particular panelists project GDP will expand 3.7% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.1% in 2020.

Slovakia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)5.45.45.45.45.4
GDP per capita (EUR)13,70714,04914,55414,95715,648
GDP (EUR bn)74.276.178.981.285.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.52.83.93.33.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)-0.81.42.32.63.7
Investment (annual variation in %)-0.93.019.8-8.33.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.23.06.03.83.1
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)0.13.61.72.16.0
Unemployment Rate14.213.211.59.78.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.7-2.7-2.7-2.2-1.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)54.753.552.351.850.9
Money (annual variation in %)6.25.211.15.26.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.4-0.1-0.50.21.9
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)1.5-0.1-0.3-0.51.4
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-0.1-3.5-4.3-0.28.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.250.050.050.00.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.381.211.091.051.20
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.331.331.111.111.13
Current Account (% of GDP)1.91.0-1.7-1.4-2.2
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)1.40.9-1.4-1.2-1.8
Trade Balance (EUR billion)4.24.73.33.63.2
Exports (EUR billion)64.264.767.770.075.1
Imports (EUR billion)59.960.064.466.471.9
Exports (annual variation in %)3.30.94.63.57.2
Imports (annual variation in %)2.30.17.23.18.3

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Slovakia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield0.68-4.12 %Dec 11
Exchange Rate1.130.65 %Dec 11
Stock Market3350.0 %Dec 11

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