Slovakia Economic Forecast

Slovakia Economic Outlook

January 29, 2019

On the heels of a robust third quarter, momentum appears to have partly carried over into the fourth quarter, powered by strong domestic activity. Retail sales surged in the October-November period, buttressed by softer price pressures and the unemployment rate hitting a new historical low. Meanwhile, fixed investment likely softened at year-end, with major projects within the all-important car industry wrapping up. On the supply front, industrial production lost steam in November, after seven months of impressive expansion. This was a result of slower demand from Germany, a key partner in the European automobile supply chain. Exports consequently decelerated somewhat in Q4, whereas a rise in imports is seen weighing on external gains. In the political arena, a new employment law came into effect on 1 January, including a rise in the minimum wage which should support household spending ahead.

Slovakia Economic Growth

This year, economic growth should outpace most EU area states, buoyed by sturdy private consumption and increased car production. Households are expected to continue benefiting from subdued inflationary pressures and a tight labor market. Meanwhile, completed manufacturing projects should stoke industrial production, boosting export growth in turn, although a shortage of skilled workers will restrain output. A further deceleration among European economies remains a key risk to the outlook. Met the why particular panelists project GDP will expand 3.8% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.2% in 2020.

Slovakia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)5.45.45.45.45.4
GDP per capita (EUR)13,70714,04914,55414,95715,648
GDP (EUR bn)74.276.178.981.285.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.52.83.93.33.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)-0.81.42.32.63.7
Investment (annual variation in %)-0.93.019.8-8.33.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.23.06.03.83.1
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)0.13.61.72.16.0
Unemployment Rate14.213.211.59.78.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.7-2.7-2.7-2.2-1.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)54.753.552.351.850.9
Money (annual variation in %)6.25.211.15.26.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.4-0.1-0.50.21.9
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)1.5-0.1-0.3-0.51.4
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-0.1-3.5-4.3-0.28.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.250.050.050.00.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.381.211.091.051.20
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.331.331.111.111.13
Current Account (% of GDP)1.91.0-1.7-1.4-2.2
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)1.40.9-1.4-1.2-1.8
Trade Balance (EUR billion)4.24.73.33.63.2
Exports (EUR billion)64.264.767.770.075.1
Imports (EUR billion)59.960.064.466.471.9
Exports (annual variation in %)3.30.94.63.57.2
Imports (annual variation in %)2.30.17.23.18.3

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Slovakia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield0.51-4.12 %Feb 14
Exchange Rate1.130.65 %Feb 14
Stock Market3360.0 %Feb 14

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