Slovakia Economic Forecast

Slovakia Economic Outlook

May 29, 2018

Economic activity expanded robustly in the first quarter, according to a preliminary GDP estimate. Although a breakdown by components is not yet available, strong wage gains, tightening labor market conditions and solid retail sales throughout the quarter hint at healthy consumer spending. Heading into Q2, upbeat business confidence on the back of favorable demand expectations in April and May bodes well for economic activity. In late April, President Andrej Kiska appointed Deputy Interior Minister Denisa Saková, a leading figure in the ruling Smer party, as the new interior minister. Anti-corruption demonstrations have been ongoing since last March, following the murder of an investigative journalist who had exposed links between politicians and organized crime. The latest appointment of a member of the ruling party, far from meeting demands for an independent figure, could reignite tensions.

Slovakia Economic Growth

Growth is expected to pick up this year, driven by an acceleration in fixed investment on the back of rising EU funds. Moreover, strong wage growth, inflows of foreign workers and tightening labor market conditions will buttress consumer spending. The fiscal deficit is expected to widen somewhat but remain manageable, as a robust increase in revenue will be outpaced by rising public wages and social spending. However, further political instability could hit business sentiment. Met the why particular panelists project GDP will expand 3.7% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 3.5% in 2019.

Slovakia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)5.45.45.45.45.4
GDP per capita (EUR)13,70714,04914,55414,95715,648
GDP (EUR bn)74.276.178.981.285.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.52.83.93.33.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)-0.81.42.32.63.7
Investment (annual variation in %)-0.93.019.8-8.33.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.23.06.03.83.1
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)0.13.61.72.16.0
Unemployment Rate14.213.211.59.78.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.7-2.7-2.7-2.2-1.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)54.753.552.351.850.9
Money (annual variation in %)6.25.211.15.26.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.4-0.1-0.50.21.9
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)1.5-0.1-0.3-0.51.4
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-0.1-3.5-4.3-0.28.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.250.050.050.00.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.381.211.091.051.20
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.331.331.111.111.13
Current Account (% of GDP)1.91.0-1.7-1.4-2.2
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)1.40.9-1.4-1.2-1.8
Trade Balance (EUR billion)4.24.73.33.63.2
Exports (EUR billion)64.264.767.770.075.1
Imports (EUR billion)59.960.064.466.471.9
Exports (annual variation in %)3.30.94.63.57.2
Imports (annual variation in %)2.30.17.23.18.3

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Slovakia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield0.21-4.12 %Jun 14
Exchange Rate1.170.65 %Jun 14
Stock Market3270.0 %Jun 14

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