Singapore Economic Forecast

Singapore Economic Outlook

January 22, 2019

Annual economic growth slowed to a near two-and-a-half year low in the final quarter of 2018, according to an advanced estimate. This followed a deceleration in the services sector, which outweighed the uptick in manufacturing activities and a softer contraction in the construction sector. Looking ahead to Q1 2019, global demand for electronics and technology seems to be abating, which will likely depress Singapore’s manufacturing and external sector. The electronics PMI reading has been softening lately and, in December, recorded the lowest reading since July 2016. In the same month, non-oil domestic exports plummeted, led by steep falls in electronics and pharmaceuticals. On the political front, there is speculation over whether the prime minister will hold general elections this year, to take advantage of still-strong domestic growth and an expected boost in popularity following Singapore’s bicentennial commemoration. The unveiling of the 2019 budget in mid-February should be a strong bellwether of plans.

Singapore Economic Growth

Although annual growth is expected to moderate in 2019, the expansion should remain brisk nonetheless, thanks to a solid service sector, strong investment and a robust labor market which should support private consumption. However, trade protectionism and slowing global demand will continue to weigh on the external sector. Met the why particular panelists expect the economy to grow 2.5% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 2.5% again in 2020.

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Singapore Facts

Bond Yield2.201.39 %Jan 30
Exchange Rate1.35-0.01 %Jan 30
Stock Market3,1740.18 %Jan 30

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