Serbia Economic Forecast

Serbia Economic Outlook

November 27, 2018

A preliminary estimate for third quarter GDP reaffirms the economy is on track for the best yearly performance in a decade. While growth softened from Q2’s robust expansion, the headline figure was solid nonetheless, likely propelled by domestic demand. Brisk retail sales growth throughout the quarter, combined with an improving labor market, indicate strong consumer spending. Moreover, flagship infrastructure projects should have supported both private and public investment. In recent news, on 21 November Kosovo slapped 110% trade tariffs on Serbian and Bosnian goods, in retaliation against Serbia’s campaign to prevent Kosovo’s membership to the international police organization INTERPOL. Kosovo, which purchases approximately EUR 110 million worth of Serbian goods every year, had already imposed 11% tariffs in early November and Serbia’s Chamber of Commerce noted that exports to Kosovo have plummeted by 50% since then. The recent developments highlight the progress yet to be made on normalizing relations between the two countries.

Serbia Economic Growth

The economy is expected to power ahead in 2019, albeit at a weaker pace than this year’s robust expansion. Momentum should come on the back of strong domestic demand, which will be underpinned by a strengthening labor market, fiscal stimulus and higher FDI inflows. Less-than-expected progress in structural reforms and slower growth in the Eurozone represent downside risks to the outlook. Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to expand 3.5% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and to grow 3.3% in 2020.

Serbia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)7.27.17.17.17.0
GDP per capita (USD)6,3506,1895,2355,4265,908
GDP per capita (EUR)4,7814,6724,7204,9055,234
GDP (USD bn)45.544.137.138.341.5
GDP (EUR bn)34.333.333.534.636.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.6-1.80.82.81.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)-0.4-1.30.40.81.8
Investment (annual variation in %)-12.0-3.65.65.16.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.6-6.18.44.83.5
Unemployment Rate22.119.217.715.313.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.5-6.6-3.7-1.31.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)59.670.474.771.961.5
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)13.912.114.415.17.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)7.92.11.41.13.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)9.508.004.504.003.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)83.1399.5111.3117.199.1
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)85.1788.54118.9111.3117.5
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)114.6121.0121.6123.5118.5
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)113.1117.3120.7123.1121.3
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.1-6.0-3.7-3.1-5.7
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-2.1-2.0-1.2-1.1-2.1
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-4.2-4.1-3.6-3.1-4.0
Exports (EUR billion)11.511.611.512.814.1
Imports (EUR billion)14.714.815.115.918.1
Exports (annual variation in %)25.51.27.611.911.0
Imports (annual variation in %)4.70.52.45.513.4
International Reserves (EUR)11.29.911.411.211.0
External Debt (% of GDP)77.670.476.773.074.4

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Serbia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield3.730.0 %Dec 14
Exchange Rate114.7-0.31 %Dec 14
Stock Market1,558-0.44 %Dec 14

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