Serbia Economic Forecast

Serbia Economic Outlook

May 8, 2018

Preliminary data released by the Statistical Institute showed that economic growth accelerated to an almost ten-year high in the first quarter. While a breakdown by components is not yet available, faster growth was likely driven by both the domestic economy and the external sector. In Q1, merchandise exports grew at a double-digit rate, and industrial production and retail sales expanded at a healthy pace. Growth in industrial production and exports attested to strong overseas demand, while the expansion in retail sales reflected declining unemployment and higher disposable incomes boosted by an appreciating currency and a public-sector wage hike in January. On 11 April, the Ministry of Finance stated that the details of a prospective new IMF deal aimed at providing non-financial assistance to economic reforms will be unveiled no later than June. The government hopes that the deal will facilitate ongoing reform efforts to advance in EU accession talks.

Serbia Economic Growth

The domestic economy is expected to be the main engine of growth this year and next on the back of declining unemployment, rising wages and sizeable FDI inflows. Our panelists expect GDP growth of 3.1% in 2018, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2019, GDP growth is expected to remain stable at 3.1%.

Serbia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)7.27.17.17.07.1
GDP per capita (USD)6,1876,4775,2885,396-  
GDP per capita (EUR)4,7604,7314,7464,857-  
GDP (USD bn)44.346.237.537.9-  
GDP (EUR bn)34.133.733.634.1-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.6-1.80.82.8-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)-0.4-1.30.40.8-  
Investment (annual variation in %)-12.0-3.65.64.9-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.6-6.18.44.8-  
Unemployment Rate22.119.217.715.3-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.5-6.6-3.7-1.3-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)56.867.971.970.2-  
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)13.912.114.415.1-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)7.92.11.41.1-  
Policy Interest Rate (%)9.508.004.504.00-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)83.34110.3111.9117.2-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)85.1388.47118.8111.3-  
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)114.6121.1121.3123.4-  
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)113.1117.3120.7123.1-  
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.3-5.7-4.7-4.0-  
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-2.1-1.9-1.6-1.4-  
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-4.2-4.0-4.0-3.5-  
Exports (EUR billion)11.711.311.312.7-  
Imports (EUR billion)15.014.315.316.2-  
Exports (annual variation in %)26.5-3.89.512.1-  
Imports (annual variation in %)5.5-4.46.85.5-  
International Reserves (EUR)11.29.911.411.2-  
External Debt (% of GDP)79.767.376.173.9-  

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Serbia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield4.000.0 %May 21
Bond Yield4.000.0 %May 21
Exchange Rate110.1-0.31 %May 21
Exchange Rate110.1-0.31 %May 21
Stock Market1,554-0.44 %May 21
Stock Market1,554-0.44 %May 21

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