Serbia Economic Forecast

Serbia Economic Outlook

October 2, 2018

Following the economy’s robust performance in the second quarter, available data for the third quarter suggests momentum broadly held up. Sustained wage growth in July above the rate of inflation and favorable credit conditions should have supported household spending in the third quarter. Similarly, retail sales growth accelerated to a seven-month high in August on robust sales of non-food items, a sign of consumers’ rising disposable income. Moreover, tourist arrivals continued to expand at a double-digit pace in the same month. In addition, construction activity, which has been supported by strong residential investment, appears to have gained stride, as indicated by building permits data for July. Conversely, industrial production fell sharply in August on broad-based declines, while export growth weakened in the same month, causing the trade deficit to widen further.

Serbia Economic Growth

The domestic economy is expected to be the main driver of growth in 2019, underpinned by falling unemployment, higher wages and sizeable FDI inflows. Moreover, structural reforms should help boost Serbia’s economic competitiveness and private sector growth. However, momentum is expected to slow as stimulus from investment tails off. Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to grow 4.0% in 2018. For 2019, economic growth is expected to ease to 3.4%, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

Serbia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)7.27.17.17.17.0
GDP per capita (USD)6,3506,1895,2355,4265,908
GDP per capita (EUR)4,7814,6724,7204,9055,234
GDP (USD bn)45.544.137.138.341.5
GDP (EUR bn)34.333.333.534.636.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.6-1.80.82.81.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)-0.4-1.30.40.81.8
Investment (annual variation in %)-12.0-3.65.65.16.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.6-6.18.44.83.5
Unemployment Rate22.119.217.715.313.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.5-6.6-3.7-1.31.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)59.670.474.771.961.5
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)13.912.114.415.17.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)7.92.11.41.13.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)9.508.004.504.003.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)83.1399.5111.3117.199.1
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)85.1788.54118.9111.3117.5
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)114.6121.0121.6123.5118.5
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)113.1117.3120.7123.1121.3
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.1-6.0-3.7-3.1-5.7
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-2.1-2.0-1.2-1.1-2.1
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-4.2-4.1-3.6-3.1-4.0
Exports (EUR billion)11.511.611.512.814.1
Imports (EUR billion)14.714.815.115.918.1
Exports (annual variation in %)25.51.27.611.911.0
Imports (annual variation in %)4.70.52.45.513.4
International Reserves (EUR)11.29.911.411.211.0
External Debt (% of GDP)77.670.476.773.074.4

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Serbia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield3.650.0 %Oct 18
Exchange Rate113.6-0.31 %Oct 18
Stock Market1,553-0.44 %Oct 18

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