Serbia Economic Outlook
July 31, 2018Although national accounts data for Q2 is still outstanding, economic growth likely softened from Q1’s almost ten-year high but remained robust nonetheless. Growth in industrial output decelerated for two consecutive months and recorded its weakest expansion since January in May. Exports expanded at a solid pace in April and May, but the average growth reading for the first two months of Q2 trended significantly below the average reading in Q1. However, salaries and wages increased faster than inflation in the January-to-May period, boding well for private consumption growth in H1. On 18 July, the IMF Executive Board ratified the non-financial Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) program. The deal will build on the reforms executed in another IMF program that culminated in February. The PCI is aimed at lowering public debt, privatizing some state-owned enterprises and enhancing fiscal discipline through improved tax collection and limiting government spending.
Serbia Economic GrowthThe domestic economy is expected to be the main engine of growth this year and next on the back of declining unemployment, rising wages and sizeable FDI inflows. Implementation of structural reforms will help boost Serbia’s potential economic growth in the medium- to long-term. Our panelists expect the economy to grow 3.4% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2019, GDP growth is expected to ease to 3.2%.
Serbia Economy Data
5 years of Serbia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||3.75||0.0 %||Aug 15|
|Exchange Rate||114.0||-0.31 %||Aug 15|
|Stock Market||1,526||-0.44 %||Aug 15|
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Serbia Economic News
August 13, 2018
Consumer prices declined 0.3% from the previous month in July, contrasting June’s 0.4% increase.
August 9, 2018
At its 9 August monetary policy meeting, the Executive Board of the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) voted to keep the key policy rate on hold at 3.0%, a decision that met market expectations. The NBS considered its decision appropriate in the context of increasing inflationary pressures, as the Bank aims to anchor inflation in its target range of 1.5%–4.5%.
July 12, 2018
Consumer prices increased 0.4% from the previous month in June, below May’s 0.6% print.
June 29, 2018
Industrial production expanded 0.5% over the same month last year in May.
June 11, 2018
At its monthly monetary policy meeting held on 11 June, the Executive Board of the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) decided to leave the key policy rate unchanged at 3.00%.