Serbia Economic Forecast

Serbia Economic Outlook

June 4, 2019

Economic momentum continued to slow for the third consecutive quarter in Q1 2019, primarily owing to a drag from the external sector. While both imports and exports continued to grow strongly, imports outpaced exports once again, weighing on headline growth. Meanwhile, domestic demand held up reasonably well, as private consumption growth was stable in the quarter and investment rebounded markedly despite a weak industrial sector. Nevertheless, government consumption growth softened to a one-year low. Turning to Q2, growth is likely to remain subdued, amid the ongoing slowdown in the Eurozone coupled with domestic and regional political turmoil. Widespread anti-government protests persisted through May, and Serbia announced it would retaliate on 1 July if Kosovo’s import tariffs remain in place.

Serbia Economic Growth

Growth appears set to slow this year, largely due to last year’s strong performance producing a high base effect, as well as lower Eurozone growth and protracted regional tensions. Nevertheless, a tightening labor market, IMF-backed reforms and fiscal support should buttress activity. Met the why particular panelists see GDP expanding 3.2% in 2019, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.3% in 2020.

Serbia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)7.27.17.17.17.0
GDP per capita (USD)6,3506,1895,2355,4265,908
GDP per capita (EUR)4,7814,6724,7204,9055,234
GDP (USD bn)45.544.137.138.341.5
GDP (EUR bn)34.333.333.534.636.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.6-1.80.82.81.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)-0.4-1.30.40.81.8
Investment (annual variation in %)-12.0-3.65.65.16.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.6-6.18.44.83.5
Unemployment Rate22.119.217.715.313.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.5-6.6-3.7-1.31.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)59.670.474.771.961.5
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)13.912.114.415.17.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)7.92.11.41.13.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)9.508.004.504.003.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)83.1399.5111.3117.199.1
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)85.1788.54118.9111.3117.5
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)114.6121.0121.6123.5118.5
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)113.1117.3120.7123.1121.3
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.1-6.0-3.7-3.1-5.7
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-2.1-2.0-1.2-1.1-2.1
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-4.2-4.1-3.6-3.1-4.0
Exports (EUR billion)11.511.611.512.814.1
Imports (EUR billion)14.714.815.115.918.1
Exports (annual variation in %)25.51.27.611.911.0
Imports (annual variation in %)4.70.52.45.513.4
International Reserves (EUR)11.29.911.411.211.0
External Debt (% of GDP)77.670.476.773.074.4

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Serbia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield3.600.0 %Jun 14
Exchange Rate115.2-0.31 %Jun 14
Stock Market1,531-0.44 %Jun 14

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