Serbia Economic Forecast

Serbia Economic Outlook

February 5, 2019

The economy cooled further at the end of 2018, following softer growth in the third quarter. While details of the Q4 GDP print are not yet available, significantly weaker industrial production throughout the quarter and a notable slowdown in merchandise export growth in December suggest softer external demand. Nevertheless, the domestic economy likely continued to bolster growth. Consumer spending appeared to have remained solid throughout the quarter, as reflected by strong retail sales in Q4 and robust wage growth through November. Meanwhile, brisk growth in construction permits in November points to sustained investment spending. In other news, Serbia finalized a new free trade agreement with Turkey in January, which aims to further increase total trade between the two countries. The deal will broaden market access for Serbian goods, which should help boost export share in 2019.

Serbia Economic Growth

Growth prospects for 2019 remain favorable, although momentum will ebb from 2018’s stellar pace. Domestic demand should continue to drive growth on the back of a strengthening labor market, fiscal stimulus, and FDI inflows. A larger-than-expected slowdown in the Eurozone remains the principal downside risk to the outlook. Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to expand 3.5% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.3% in 2020.

Serbia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)7.27.17.17.17.0
GDP per capita (USD)6,3506,1895,2355,4265,908
GDP per capita (EUR)4,7814,6724,7204,9055,234
GDP (USD bn)45.544.137.138.341.5
GDP (EUR bn)34.333.333.534.636.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.6-1.80.82.81.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)-0.4-1.30.40.81.8
Investment (annual variation in %)-12.0-3.65.65.16.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.6-6.18.44.83.5
Unemployment Rate22.119.217.715.313.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.5-6.6-3.7-1.31.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)59.670.474.771.961.5
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)13.912.114.415.17.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)7.92.11.41.13.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)9.508.004.504.003.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)83.1399.5111.3117.199.1
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)85.1788.54118.9111.3117.5
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)114.6121.0121.6123.5118.5
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)113.1117.3120.7123.1121.3
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.1-6.0-3.7-3.1-5.7
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-2.1-2.0-1.2-1.1-2.1
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-4.2-4.1-3.6-3.1-4.0
Exports (EUR billion)11.511.611.512.814.1
Imports (EUR billion)14.714.815.115.918.1
Exports (annual variation in %)25.51.27.611.911.0
Imports (annual variation in %)4.70.52.45.513.4
International Reserves (EUR)11.29.911.411.211.0
External Debt (% of GDP)77.670.476.773.074.4

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Serbia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield4.000.0 %Feb 19
Exchange Rate114.1-0.31 %Feb 19
Stock Market1,499-0.44 %Feb 19

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