Serbia Economic Outlook
October 2, 2018Following the economy’s robust performance in the second quarter, available data for the third quarter suggests momentum broadly held up. Sustained wage growth in July above the rate of inflation and favorable credit conditions should have supported household spending in the third quarter. Similarly, retail sales growth accelerated to a seven-month high in August on robust sales of non-food items, a sign of consumers’ rising disposable income. Moreover, tourist arrivals continued to expand at a double-digit pace in the same month. In addition, construction activity, which has been supported by strong residential investment, appears to have gained stride, as indicated by building permits data for July. Conversely, industrial production fell sharply in August on broad-based declines, while export growth weakened in the same month, causing the trade deficit to widen further.
Serbia Economic GrowthThe domestic economy is expected to be the main driver of growth in 2019, underpinned by falling unemployment, higher wages and sizeable FDI inflows. Moreover, structural reforms should help boost Serbia’s economic competitiveness and private sector growth. However, momentum is expected to slow as stimulus from investment tails off. Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to grow 4.0% in 2018. For 2019, economic growth is expected to ease to 3.4%, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.
Serbia Economy Data
5 years of Serbia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||3.65||0.0 %||Oct 18|
|Exchange Rate||113.6||-0.31 %||Oct 18|
|Stock Market||1,553||-0.44 %||Oct 18|
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Serbia Economic News
October 12, 2018
Consumer prices decreased 0.3% from the previous month in September, eclipsing August’s 0.3% increase.
October 8, 2018
At its 8 October monetary policy meeting, the Executive Board of the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) voted to keep the key policy rate unchanged at 3.00%, where it has been for the last seven months. The Bank’s decision was mainly guided by well-anchored inflation expectations.
September 28, 2018
According to data released by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, industrial production fell 4.3% over the same month last year, contrasting the 1.7% increase recorded in July and ending an over one-year run of consecutive expansions.
September 12, 2018
Consumer prices increased 0.3% from the previous month in August, contrasting July’s 0.3% decrease.
September 6, 2018
At its 6 September monetary policy meeting, the Executive Board of the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) voted to keep the key policy rate on hold at 3.00%, where it has been since April.