Serbia Economic Forecast

Serbia Economic Outlook

July 31, 2018

Although national accounts data for Q2 is still outstanding, economic growth likely softened from Q1’s almost ten-year high but remained robust nonetheless. Growth in industrial output decelerated for two consecutive months and recorded its weakest expansion since January in May. Exports expanded at a solid pace in April and May, but the average growth reading for the first two months of Q2 trended significantly below the average reading in Q1. However, salaries and wages increased faster than inflation in the January-to-May period, boding well for private consumption growth in H1. On 18 July, the IMF Executive Board ratified the non-financial Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) program. The deal will build on the reforms executed in another IMF program that culminated in February. The PCI is aimed at lowering public debt, privatizing some state-owned enterprises and enhancing fiscal discipline through improved tax collection and limiting government spending.

Serbia Economic Growth

The domestic economy is expected to be the main engine of growth this year and next on the back of declining unemployment, rising wages and sizeable FDI inflows. Implementation of structural reforms will help boost Serbia’s potential economic growth in the medium- to long-term. Our panelists expect the economy to grow 3.4% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2019, GDP growth is expected to ease to 3.2%.

Serbia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)7.27.17.17.17.0
GDP per capita (USD)6,3506,1895,2355,4265,908
GDP per capita (EUR)4,7814,6724,7204,9055,234
GDP (USD bn)45.544.137.138.341.5
GDP (EUR bn)34.333.333.534.636.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.6-1.80.82.81.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)-0.4-1.30.40.81.8
Investment (annual variation in %)-12.0-3.65.65.16.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.6-6.18.44.83.5
Unemployment Rate22.119.217.715.313.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.5-6.6-3.7-1.31.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)59.670.474.771.961.5
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)13.912.114.415.17.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)7.92.11.41.13.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)9.508.004.504.003.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)83.1399.5111.3117.199.1
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)85.1788.54118.9111.3117.5
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)114.6121.0121.6123.5118.5
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)113.1117.3120.7123.1121.3
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.1-6.0-3.7-3.1-5.7
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-2.1-2.0-1.2-1.1-2.1
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-4.2-4.1-3.6-3.1-4.0
Exports (EUR billion)11.511.611.512.814.1
Imports (EUR billion)14.714.815.115.918.1
Exports (annual variation in %)25.51.27.611.911.0
Imports (annual variation in %)4.70.52.45.513.4
International Reserves (EUR)11.29.911.411.211.0
External Debt (% of GDP)77.670.476.773.074.4

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Serbia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield3.750.0 %Aug 15
Exchange Rate114.0-0.31 %Aug 15
Stock Market1,526-0.44 %Aug 15

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