Serbia Economic Forecast

Serbia Economic Outlook

January 8, 2019

While GDP growth cooled in the third quarter of 2018 owing to a relatively broad-based softening, the economy continued to expand solidly. Rising disposable income and sustained remittance inflows continue to support private consumption. Soaring imports, meanwhile, were testament to the strong domestic economy although led to a drag on headline growth, despite stronger exports. Turning to more recent developments, on 14 December S&P Global Ratings affirmed its BB credit rating for Serbia and upgraded the outlook to positive, citing a solid economic outlook, fiscal prudence and effective monetary policy as key factors behind its decision. However, on a gloomier note, Kosovo raised tariffs on a second set of Serbian imports on 28 December, after slapping 110% tariffs on all locally-produced Serbian goods in late November. Mounting trade tensions will likely translate into a greater drag on the external sector and could lead to a further worsening of relations between the two countries.

Serbia Economic Growth

Serbia is expected to remain one of the fastest growing countries in the region in 2019. Vigorous domestic demand should be underpinned by a tighter labor market, FDI inflows and fiscal spending. Nevertheless, economic growth will be sensitive to a potential slowdown in the Eurozone and tighter global financial conditions. Met the why particular Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to expand 3.5% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and to grow 3.2% in 2020.

Serbia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)7.27.17.17.17.0
GDP per capita (USD)6,3506,1895,2355,4265,908
GDP per capita (EUR)4,7814,6724,7204,9055,234
GDP (USD bn)45.544.137.138.341.5
GDP (EUR bn)34.333.333.534.636.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.6-1.80.82.81.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)-0.4-1.30.40.81.8
Investment (annual variation in %)-12.0-3.65.65.16.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.6-6.18.44.83.5
Unemployment Rate22.119.217.715.313.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.5-6.6-3.7-1.31.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)59.670.474.771.961.5
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)13.912.114.415.17.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)7.92.11.41.13.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)9.508.004.504.003.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)83.1399.5111.3117.199.1
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)85.1788.54118.9111.3117.5
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)114.6121.0121.6123.5118.5
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)113.1117.3120.7123.1121.3
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.1-6.0-3.7-3.1-5.7
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-2.1-2.0-1.2-1.1-2.1
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-4.2-4.1-3.6-3.1-4.0
Exports (EUR billion)11.511.611.512.814.1
Imports (EUR billion)14.714.815.115.918.1
Exports (annual variation in %)25.51.27.611.911.0
Imports (annual variation in %)4.70.52.45.513.4
International Reserves (EUR)11.29.911.411.211.0
External Debt (% of GDP)77.670.476.773.074.4

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Serbia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield3.700.0 %Jan 30
Exchange Rate113.1-0.31 %Jan 30
Stock Market1,521-0.44 %Jan 30

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Serbia Economic News

  • Serbia: Inflation reaches over one-year high in March

    April 12, 2019

    According to the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, consumer prices rose 0.4% over the prior month in March, down from the 0.7% increase logged in February.

    Read more

  • Serbia: NBS maintains monetary policy course in April

    April 9, 2019

    At its 9 April monetary policy meeting, the Executive Board of the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) voted to keep the key policy rate unchanged at 3.00%, where it has been for one year. Well-anchored inflation expectations were the key factor behind the Bank’s decision to hold the key policy rate at its latest meeting.

    Read more

  • Serbia: Industrial production rebounds in February

    March 29, 2019

    According to data released by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, industrial production rebounded 2.4% year-on-year in February from the 5.5% fall logged in January.

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  • Serbia: Inflation climbs to six-month high in February

    March 12, 2019

    According to the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, consumer prices climbed 0.7% over the previous month in February, accelerating from the 0.4% increase logged in January.

    Read more

  • Serbia: NBS stands pat in March

    March 7, 2019

    At its 7 March monetary policy meeting, the Executive Board of the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) voted to keep the key policy rate steady at 3.00%, where it has been since April 2018. Sustained price stability was the main factor behind the Bank’s latest move to keep the key policy rate unchanged in March.

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